- subject_area: Uranium futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: counterevidence_supply_release_risk
- generated_at: 2026-04-17T22:25:11Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim (trimmed) |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| uranium |
U-B1 |
Net near-term uranium pricing pressure is skewed upward as nuclear policy/SMR momentum and energy-security framing remain supportive, with multiple fresh updates clustered in the most recent hours. |
66 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
48 |
| uranium |
U-B2 |
Uranium supply tightness narratives (structural deficit framing + producer constraint risk) continue to bias medium-horizon expectations toward higher prices, even if short-term volatility rises on headline flow. |
70 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
48 |
| uranium |
U-B3 |
A credible supply-normalisation pathway (e.g., sanctioned/held material re-entering channels or policy-driven releases) could cap upside and trigger a short-term pullback despite otherwise supportive demand narratives. |
34 |
down |
stable |
24h |
false |
48 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-uranium-2026-04-17T22:25:11Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-17T22:25:11Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium futures",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "U-B1",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Net near-term uranium pricing pressure is skewed upward as nuclear policy/SMR momentum and energy-security framing remain supportive, with multiple fresh updates clustered in the most recent hours.",
"probability_pct": 66,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"reactor_demand",
"nuclear_policy",
"energy_security",
"nuclear_innovation"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"U-B3"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "U-B2",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Uranium supply tightness narratives (structural deficit framing + producer constraint risk) continue to bias medium-horizon expectations toward higher prices, even if short-term volatility rises on headline flow.",
"probability_pct": 70,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"uranium_supply_contracting",
"geopolitical_supply_risk",
"energy_security"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"U-B3"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "U-B3",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "A credible supply-normalisation pathway (e.g., sanctioned/held material re-entering channels or policy-driven releases) could cap upside and trigger a short-term pullback despite otherwise supportive demand narratives.",
"probability_pct": 34,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_supply_risk",
"nuclear_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"U-B1",
"U-B2"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"U-B1",
"U-B2"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 13,
"B": 0,
"C": 0,
"D": 0,
"U": 1
},
"freshness_mix": {
"signals_0_6h": 12,
"signals_6_24h": 0,
"signals_24_72h": 1,
"signals_gt_72h": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "counterevidence_supply_release_risk",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "A minority but fresh opposing pathway exists: supply-normalisation/release headlines could reduce upside in the next 24h."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_low_authority_mix",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Despite multiple Tier-A anchors, a large share of the broader corpus is lower-tier, increasing headline-driven swing risk."
},
{
"flag": "geopolitical_supply_risk_volatility",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Geopolitical and producer-constraint themes can be price-bullish but also raise reversal/volatility risk intraday."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Bullish state persists AND no additional fresh supply-normalisation/capacity-addition evidence emerges in the next 6\u201324h."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Any sharp increase in opposing supply headlines (2+ independent fresh items) OR abrupt contradiction ratio rise in the next 2\u20136h."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh counterevidence becomes multi-source within <=2h AND net directional score flips toward neutral (|score| < 20)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T22:25:11Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T23:25:11Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0.6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0.6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T23:25:11Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T00:25:11Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T00:25:11Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T01:25:11Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0.6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0.6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T01:25:11Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T02:25:11Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0.6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0.6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T02:25:11Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T03:25:11Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0.6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T03:25:11Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T04:25:11Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T06:25:11Z",
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T07:25:11Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T08:25:11Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0.6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0.6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T08:25:11Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T09:25:11Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0.6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0.6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T09:25:11Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T10:25:11Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0.6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0.6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T10:25:11Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T11:25:11Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0.6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0.6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T11:25:11Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T12:25:11Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0.6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0.6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T12:25:11Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 23,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0.6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T13:25:11Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T14:25:11Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0.6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0.6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T14:25:11Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
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"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
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},
{
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"bullish_pressure_score": 0.6,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T16:25:11Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0.6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0.6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T17:25:11Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T18:25:11Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0.6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0.6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T18:25:11Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T19:25:11Z",
"directional_score_signed": 64,
"bullish_pressure_score": 3.6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 3.6,
"velocity_score": 41,
"acceleration_score": 41,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T19:25:11Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T20:25:11Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 5.1,
"bearish_pressure_score": 1.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 3.6,
"velocity_score": -22,
"acceleration_score": -63,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2273,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T20:25:11Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T21:25:11Z",
"directional_score_signed": 85,
"bullish_pressure_score": 11.1,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 11.1,
"velocity_score": 43,
"acceleration_score": 65,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 85,
"fragility_score_0_100": 20,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 85,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 43,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 11,
"trends_admitted": 11,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Single-market scope enforced: analyzed_markets=['uranium'].",
"No explicit contradiction objects present; counterevidence inferred only from mapped opposing supply-normalisation pathway within admitted anomalies.",
"Timeseries fresh_evidence_count is bucketed from each admitted signal's latest available update timestamp (trend evidence_recency_proxy.newest_timestamp / anomaly published), not full per-record distributions."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}