• subject_area: Uranium futures
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: counterevidence_supply_release_risk
  • generated_at: 2026-04-17T22:25:11Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium U-B1 Net near-term uranium pricing pressure is skewed upward as nuclear policy/SMR momentum and energy-security framing remain supportive, with multiple fresh updates clustered in the most recent hours. 66 up accelerating 6h false 48
uranium U-B2 Uranium supply tightness narratives (structural deficit framing + producer constraint risk) continue to bias medium-horizon expectations toward higher prices, even if short-term volatility rises on headline flow. 70 up stable 24h false 48
uranium U-B3 A credible supply-normalisation pathway (e.g., sanctioned/held material re-entering channels or policy-driven releases) could cap upside and trigger a short-term pullback despite otherwise supportive demand narratives. 34 down stable 24h false 48
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-uranium-2026-04-17T22:25:11Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-17T22:25:11Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Uranium futures",
 "market_code": "uranium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "uranium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "U-B1",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Net near-term uranium pricing pressure is skewed upward as nuclear policy/SMR momentum and energy-security framing remain supportive, with multiple fresh updates clustered in the most recent hours.",
 "probability_pct": 66,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "reactor_demand",
 "nuclear_policy",
 "energy_security",
 "nuclear_innovation"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "U-B3"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "U-B2",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Uranium supply tightness narratives (structural deficit framing + producer constraint risk) continue to bias medium-horizon expectations toward higher prices, even if short-term volatility rises on headline flow.",
 "probability_pct": 70,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "uranium_supply_contracting",
 "geopolitical_supply_risk",
 "energy_security"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "U-B3"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "U-B3",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "A credible supply-normalisation pathway (e.g., sanctioned/held material re-entering channels or policy-driven releases) could cap upside and trigger a short-term pullback despite otherwise supportive demand narratives.",
 "probability_pct": 34,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_supply_risk",
 "nuclear_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "U-B1",
 "U-B2"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "U-B1",
 "U-B2"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 13,
 "B": 0,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 0,
 "U": 1
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "signals_0_6h": 12,
 "signals_6_24h": 0,
 "signals_24_72h": 1,
 "signals_gt_72h": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "counterevidence_supply_release_risk",
 "market": "uranium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "A minority but fresh opposing pathway exists: supply-normalisation/release headlines could reduce upside in the next 24h."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_low_authority_mix",
 "market": "uranium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Despite multiple Tier-A anchors, a large share of the broader corpus is lower-tier, increasing headline-driven swing risk."
 },
 {
 "flag": "geopolitical_supply_risk_volatility",
 "market": "uranium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Geopolitical and producer-constraint themes can be price-bullish but also raise reversal/volatility risk intraday."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Bullish state persists AND no additional fresh supply-normalisation/capacity-addition evidence emerges in the next 6\u201324h."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Any sharp increase in opposing supply headlines (2+ independent fresh items) OR abrupt contradiction ratio rise in the next 2\u20136h."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Fresh counterevidence becomes multi-source within <=2h AND net directional score flips toward neutral (|score| < 20)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T22:25:11Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T23:25:11Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 0.6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T23:25:11Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T00:25:11Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T00:25:11Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T01:25:11Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 0.6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T02:25:11Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T03:25:11Z",
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T08:25:11Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 0.6,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T09:25:11Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 23,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T10:25:11Z",
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T11:25:11Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T12:25:11Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0.6,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T12:25:11Z",
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T17:25:11Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T18:25:11Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0.6,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T18:25:11Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T19:25:11Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 64,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 3.6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 3.6,
 "velocity_score": 41,
 "acceleration_score": 41,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T19:25:11Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T20:25:11Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 5.1,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 1.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 3.6,
 "velocity_score": -22,
 "acceleration_score": -63,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2273,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T20:25:11Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T21:25:11Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 85,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 11.1,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11.1,
 "velocity_score": 43,
 "acceleration_score": 65,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 85,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 20,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 85,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 43,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 11,
 "trends_admitted": 11,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Single-market scope enforced: analyzed_markets=['uranium'].",
 "No explicit contradiction objects present; counterevidence inferred only from mapped opposing supply-normalisation pathway within admitted anomalies.",
 "Timeseries fresh_evidence_count is bucketed from each admitted signal's latest available update timestamp (trend evidence_recency_proxy.newest_timestamp / anomaly published), not full per-record distributions."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}