Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: macro_rate_expectations_sensitivity
  • generated_at: 2026-04-17T23:05:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-SIL-001 Silver futures have an upward bias over the next 6h as USD/real-rate narrative tilts supportive (cut-bets / softer-dollar framing dominates the admitted corpus). 62 up accelerating 6h false 48
silver B-SIL-002 Silver sentiment remains broadly constructive over the next 24h on a combined precious-metals bid + incremental industrial-demand narrative (solar / manufacturing growth references present) with supportive flow anecdotes (ETF/product mentions). 60 up stable 24h false 48
silver B-SIL-003 Downside/mean-reversion risk is non-trivial if real-rates reprice higher (hawkish re-interpretation of inflation / policy path), causing a fast unwind of the precious-metals bid. 38 down fading 24h false 48

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_silver_2026-04-17T23:05:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-17T23:05:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SIL-001",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Silver futures have an upward bias over the next 6h as USD/real-rate narrative tilts supportive (cut-bets / softer-dollar framing dominates the admitted corpus).",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "usd_strength",
 "real_rates",
 "monetary_policy",
 "investment_flows"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SIL-003"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SIL-002",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Silver sentiment remains broadly constructive over the next 24h on a combined precious-metals bid + incremental industrial-demand narrative (solar / manufacturing growth references present) with supportive flow anecdotes (ETF/product mentions).",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "industrial_demand",
 "investment_flows",
 "monetary_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SIL-003"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SIL-003",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Downside/mean-reversion risk is non-trivial if real-rates reprice higher (hawkish re-interpretation of inflation / policy path), causing a fast unwind of the precious-metals bid.",
 "probability_pct": 38,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "real_rates",
 "usd_strength",
 "monetary_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SIL-001",
 "B-SIL-002"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 34,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 40,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-SIL-001",
 "B-SIL-002",
 "B-SIL-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 9,
 "B": 0,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 8,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_signals": 9,
 "fresh_6_24h_signals": 5,
 "stale_24_72h_signals": 0,
 "stale_gt_72h_signals": 4
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 "macro_rate_expectations_sensitivity",
 "usd_linkage_high",
 "cross_asset_inference_gold_to_silver_overlap",
 "low_authority_share_in_long_tail_sources",
 "signal_concentration_in_late_session_buckets"
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional mass stays positive with continued fresh confirmations (next 6h) and no material opposing macro signal appears."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Volatility expands if rates/USD narrative flips intraday (e.g., fresh hawkish inflation framing) despite currently bullish mass."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Reversal-watch if fresh opposing evidence emerges within a 2h window AND contradiction ratio rises materially vs current low baseline."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T01:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T02:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
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 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T03:00:00Z",
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T04:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
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 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T04:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
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 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T05:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T06:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T07:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T08:00:00Z",
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
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 "velocity_score": 1,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 62,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 62,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 61,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 61,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 65,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 65,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 65,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 4,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 11,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to 'silver' from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
 "No explicit contradictory records were provided in the admitted bundle; reversal risk is driven primarily by macro-sensitivity (rates/USD) rather than observed counterevidence.",
 "Some single-source / older supply-chain items were treated as background risk (downweighted) rather than primary directional drivers."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}