Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: macro_rate_expectations_sensitivity
- generated_at: 2026-04-17T23:05:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| silver |
B-SIL-001 |
Silver futures have an upward bias over the next 6h as USD/real-rate narrative tilts supportive (cut-bets / softer-dollar framing dominates the admitted corpus). |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
48 |
| silver |
B-SIL-002 |
Silver sentiment remains broadly constructive over the next 24h on a combined precious-metals bid + incremental industrial-demand narrative (solar / manufacturing growth references present) with supportive flow anecdotes (ETF/product mentions). |
60 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
48 |
| silver |
B-SIL-003 |
Downside/mean-reversion risk is non-trivial if real-rates reprice higher (hawkish re-interpretation of inflation / policy path), causing a fast unwind of the precious-metals bid. |
38 |
down |
fading |
24h |
false |
48 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_silver_2026-04-17T23:05:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-17T23:05:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-SIL-001",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Silver futures have an upward bias over the next 6h as USD/real-rate narrative tilts supportive (cut-bets / softer-dollar framing dominates the admitted corpus).",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"usd_strength",
"real_rates",
"monetary_policy",
"investment_flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SIL-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SIL-002",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Silver sentiment remains broadly constructive over the next 24h on a combined precious-metals bid + incremental industrial-demand narrative (solar / manufacturing growth references present) with supportive flow anecdotes (ETF/product mentions).",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"industrial_demand",
"investment_flows",
"monetary_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SIL-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SIL-003",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Downside/mean-reversion risk is non-trivial if real-rates reprice higher (hawkish re-interpretation of inflation / policy path), causing a fast unwind of the precious-metals bid.",
"probability_pct": 38,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"real_rates",
"usd_strength",
"monetary_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SIL-001",
"B-SIL-002"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 34,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 40,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-SIL-001",
"B-SIL-002",
"B-SIL-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 9,
"B": 0,
"C": 0,
"D": 8,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_signals": 9,
"fresh_6_24h_signals": 5,
"stale_24_72h_signals": 0,
"stale_gt_72h_signals": 4
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
"macro_rate_expectations_sensitivity",
"usd_linkage_high",
"cross_asset_inference_gold_to_silver_overlap",
"low_authority_share_in_long_tail_sources",
"signal_concentration_in_late_session_buckets"
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Directional mass stays positive with continued fresh confirmations (next 6h) and no material opposing macro signal appears."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Volatility expands if rates/USD narrative flips intraday (e.g., fresh hawkish inflation framing) despite currently bullish mass."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Reversal-watch if fresh opposing evidence emerges within a 2h window AND contradiction ratio rises materially vs current low baseline."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"silver"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 62,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 61,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 61,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 65,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 65,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 65,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 4,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 11,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to 'silver' from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
"No explicit contradictory records were provided in the admitted bundle; reversal risk is driven primarily by macro-sensitivity (rates/USD) rather than observed counterevidence.",
"Some single-source / older supply-chain items were treated as background risk (downweighted) rather than primary directional drivers."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}