Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: copper
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: trade_policy_whipsaw (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-17 23:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-copper-01 Energy-transition, grid modernisation and infrastructure narratives are reinforcing expectations of firm medium-term copper demand, supporting an upward bias in copper futures. 64 up accelerating 24h false 46
copper B-copper-02 Ongoing supply-chain constraint and regulatory / operational disruption narratives keep a non-trivial copper supply-risk premium in the tape, skewing outcomes to the upside on disruption headlines. 60 up stable 24h false 46
copper B-copper-03 Near-term macro/trade-policy headlines can trigger pullbacks or chop even inside a bullish baseline (headline-driven volatility and whipsaw risk). 42 mixed accelerating 6h false 46

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-copper-20260417-2300Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-17T23:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-01",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Energy-transition, grid modernisation and infrastructure narratives are reinforcing expectations of firm medium-term copper demand, supporting an upward bias in copper futures.",
 "probability_pct": 64,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_transition_demand",
 "industrial_demand",
 "infrastructure_investment",
 "electric_grid_modernization",
 "ev_infrastructure_buildout"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "China industrial activity sensitivity (risk of demand softening signalled by China steel-production decline coverage)",
 "Trade-policy uncertainty raising macro downside tails"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-02",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Ongoing supply-chain constraint and regulatory / operational disruption narratives keep a non-trivial copper supply-risk premium in the tape, skewing outcomes to the upside on disruption headlines.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply_disruption",
 "regulatory_restrictions",
 "supply_chain_constraints"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "If disruptions fail to materialise / de-escalate, the risk premium can fade quickly",
 "Demand-side macro disappointment can dominate supply narratives"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-03",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Near-term macro/trade-policy headlines can trigger pullbacks or chop even inside a bullish baseline (headline-driven volatility and whipsaw risk).",
 "probability_pct": 42,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "trade_policy",
 "china_policy",
 "macro_growth_uncertainty"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Broad pro-copper demand narratives remain dominant in the most recent evidence window"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 84,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-copper-01",
 "B-copper-02",
 "B-copper-03"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 161,
 "B": 17,
 "C": 8,
 "D": 386,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_share_0_to_1": 0.35,
 "fresh_6_24h_share_0_to_1": 0.5,
 "stale_24_72h_share_0_to_1": 0.12,
 "stale_gt_72h_share_0_to_1": 0.03,
 "notes": "Most admitted trends show late-surge temporal profiles with multiple same-day publications; background narrative span remains >7d for several themes."
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "trade_policy_whipsaw",
 "market": "copper",
 "level": "medium",
 "details": "Trade-policy / tariff narrative density is high; can rapidly change the growth-demand lens and drive short-term reversals without much warning."
 },
 {
 "flag": "china_activity_sensitivity",
 "market": "copper",
 "level": "medium",
 "details": "China industrial proxies (e.g., steel production / manufacturing tone) remain a meaningful counterweight to the bullish electrification narrative."
 },
 {
 "flag": "supply_disruption_headline_risk",
 "market": "copper",
 "level": "medium",
 "details": "Regulatory and operational disruption signals (incl. Chile-linked regulatory restrictions narratives) can create gap-risk and volatility spikes."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_authority_tail_risk",
 "market": "copper",
 "level": "low",
 "details": "Directional mass is broad, but a meaningful share of supporting items are from lower-tier domains; monitor for authoritative confirmation or authoritative rebuttal."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If the next 6\u201324h window continues to show reinforcing demand + supply-tightness narratives with low contradiction."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If trade-policy headlines accelerate or China macro data surprises, expect higher intraday variance even if the baseline remains bullish."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh, clearly demand-negative China activity signals cluster (2+ independent items within ~2h) or contradiction rises materially versus this cycle."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio rises and directional score compresses into the neutral band (between -20 and +20) with weakening momentum."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 43,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 43,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 49,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 49,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 51,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 51,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 53,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 53,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 54,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 47,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 47,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 82,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 83,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 60,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 2,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 4,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=copper.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects were provided in 5B.contradictions; reversal risk is driven by fresh macro/trade-policy sensitivity and demand-softening tails rather than direct opposing signal mass.",
 "Prior state not provided (no trend_state_memory / no prior market_state_table). state_change set to 'unchanged' as a conservative default under unknown_prior."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}