Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: copper
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: trade_policy_whipsaw (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-17 23:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim (trimmed) |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| copper |
B-copper-01 |
Energy-transition, grid modernisation and infrastructure narratives are reinforcing expectations of firm medium-term copper demand, supporting an upward bias in copper futures. |
64 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
46 |
| copper |
B-copper-02 |
Ongoing supply-chain constraint and regulatory / operational disruption narratives keep a non-trivial copper supply-risk premium in the tape, skewing outcomes to the upside on disruption headlines. |
60 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
46 |
| copper |
B-copper-03 |
Near-term macro/trade-policy headlines can trigger pullbacks or chop even inside a bullish baseline (headline-driven volatility and whipsaw risk). |
42 |
mixed |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
46 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-copper-20260417-2300Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-17T23:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-01",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Energy-transition, grid modernisation and infrastructure narratives are reinforcing expectations of firm medium-term copper demand, supporting an upward bias in copper futures.",
"probability_pct": 64,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"energy_transition_demand",
"industrial_demand",
"infrastructure_investment",
"electric_grid_modernization",
"ev_infrastructure_buildout"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"China industrial activity sensitivity (risk of demand softening signalled by China steel-production decline coverage)",
"Trade-policy uncertainty raising macro downside tails"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-02",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Ongoing supply-chain constraint and regulatory / operational disruption narratives keep a non-trivial copper supply-risk premium in the tape, skewing outcomes to the upside on disruption headlines.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply_disruption",
"regulatory_restrictions",
"supply_chain_constraints"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"If disruptions fail to materialise / de-escalate, the risk premium can fade quickly",
"Demand-side macro disappointment can dominate supply narratives"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-03",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Near-term macro/trade-policy headlines can trigger pullbacks or chop even inside a bullish baseline (headline-driven volatility and whipsaw risk).",
"probability_pct": 42,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"trade_policy",
"china_policy",
"macro_growth_uncertainty"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Broad pro-copper demand narratives remain dominant in the most recent evidence window"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 84,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-copper-01",
"B-copper-02",
"B-copper-03"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 161,
"B": 17,
"C": 8,
"D": 386,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_share_0_to_1": 0.35,
"fresh_6_24h_share_0_to_1": 0.5,
"stale_24_72h_share_0_to_1": 0.12,
"stale_gt_72h_share_0_to_1": 0.03,
"notes": "Most admitted trends show late-surge temporal profiles with multiple same-day publications; background narrative span remains >7d for several themes."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "trade_policy_whipsaw",
"market": "copper",
"level": "medium",
"details": "Trade-policy / tariff narrative density is high; can rapidly change the growth-demand lens and drive short-term reversals without much warning."
},
{
"flag": "china_activity_sensitivity",
"market": "copper",
"level": "medium",
"details": "China industrial proxies (e.g., steel production / manufacturing tone) remain a meaningful counterweight to the bullish electrification narrative."
},
{
"flag": "supply_disruption_headline_risk",
"market": "copper",
"level": "medium",
"details": "Regulatory and operational disruption signals (incl. Chile-linked regulatory restrictions narratives) can create gap-risk and volatility spikes."
},
{
"flag": "low_authority_tail_risk",
"market": "copper",
"level": "low",
"details": "Directional mass is broad, but a meaningful share of supporting items are from lower-tier domains; monitor for authoritative confirmation or authoritative rebuttal."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If the next 6\u201324h window continues to show reinforcing demand + supply-tightness narratives with low contradiction."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If trade-policy headlines accelerate or China macro data surprises, expect higher intraday variance even if the baseline remains bullish."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh, clearly demand-negative China activity signals cluster (2+ independent items within ~2h) or contradiction rises materially versus this cycle."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio rises and directional score compresses into the neutral band (between -20 and +20) with weakening momentum."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 43,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 43,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 49,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 49,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 51,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 51,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 53,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 53,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 47,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 47,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 82,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 83,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 60,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 4,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=copper.",
"No explicit contradiction objects were provided in 5B.contradictions; reversal risk is driven by fresh macro/trade-policy sensitivity and demand-softening tails rather than direct opposing signal mass.",
"Prior state not provided (no trend_state_memory / no prior market_state_table). state_change set to 'unchanged' as a conservative default under unknown_prior."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}