Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: coffee
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 4
  • top_risk_flag: geopolitical_shipping_sensitivity (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-17T21:30:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B1 Ongoing global logistics/shipping disruption risk is supporting upward coffee futures price pressure via higher delivery frictions and tighter effective supply. 68 up accelerating 24h false 44
coffee B2 Labour constraints and rising production/input cost narratives are supportive of higher coffee futures through cost-push and supply tightness expectations. 66 up stable 24h false 44
coffee B3 Retail-chain expansion and beverage market-growth narratives are mildly supportive of coffee futures via demand expectations, especially in developed consumer markets. 62 up accelerating 24h false 44
coffee B4 Trade/tariff and policy uncertainty is adding volatility; net effect is biased to upside if it constrains exports/flows, but the path is headline-sensitive. 55 mixed stable 6h false 44

Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-20260417-coffee-KC-001", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-17T21:30:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Coffee futures (KC)", "market_code": "coffee" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "coffee", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "coffee" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B1", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Ongoing global logistics/shipping disruption risk is supporting upward coffee futures price pressure via higher delivery frictions and tighter effective supply.", "probability_pct": 68, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "shipping_freight", "origin_supply" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 76, "authority_confirmation_band": "high" }, { "belief_id": "B2", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Labour constraints and rising production/input cost narratives are supportive of higher coffee futures through cost-push and supply tightness expectations.", "probability_pct": 66, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "labour_costs", "origin_supply" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 71, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70, "authority_confirmation_band": "high" }, { "belief_id": "B3", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Retail-chain expansion and beverage market-growth narratives are mildly supportive of coffee futures via demand expectations, especially in developed consumer markets.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "consumption_trends" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B4", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Trade/tariff and policy uncertainty is adding volatility; net effect is biased to upside if it constrains exports/flows, but the path is headline-sensitive.", "probability_pct": 55, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "shipping_freight", "origin_supply" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72, "authority_confirmation_band": "high" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "coffee", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70, "authority_confirmation_band": "high", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B1", "B2", "B3", "B4" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 153, "B": 10, "C": 5, "D": 280, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_24h_signal_count": 6, "mid_24_72h_signal_count": 4, "stale_gt_72h_signal_count": 0 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "geopolitical_shipping_sensitivity", "market": "coffee", "severity": "medium", "notes": "Logistics-linked upside thesis can reverse quickly if transit risk de-escalates or capacity normalises." }, { "flag": "policy_headline_risk", "market": "coffee", "severity": "medium", "notes": "Tariff/trade-policy narratives increase near-term whipsaw risk even if net bias remains upward." }, { "flag": "authority_vs_mass_mix", "market": "coffee", "severity": "low", "notes": "Directional mass is broad; authority confirmation is solid but corpus includes a high share of lower-tier sources." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "coffee", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "If fresh logistics/cost-squeeze signals persist into the next cycle without meaningful counterevidence." }, { "market": "coffee", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If policy/tariff or shipping-route headlines accelerate (in either direction) inside a 6h window." }, { "market": "coffee", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent fresh (<=2h) signals indicate easing logistics or improving supply conditions." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "coffee" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 48, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 48, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 48, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 47, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 50, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 47, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 50, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 50, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 41, "bullish_pressure_score": 51, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 41, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 41, "bullish_pressure_score": 51, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 41, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 43, "bullish_pressure_score": 53, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 43, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 43, "bullish_pressure_score": 53, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 43, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 43, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 43, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 42, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 42, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 46, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 46, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 41, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 46, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 46, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 41, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 41, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 50, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 50, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "fragility_score_0_100": 40, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 52, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 52, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 39, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 58, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 58, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 73, "fragility_score_0_100": 40, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 60, "bullish_pressure_score": 70, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 60, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 75, "fragility_score_0_100": 41, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 60, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 6, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "balanced", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 10, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 0, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "No per-record timestamp stream was provided to 6B; timeseries buckets approximate recency using trend-level newest timestamps and visible in-window record timestamps.", "No explicit opposing (price-down) coffee-specific evidence was present in the admitted signal set; reversal risk is therefore driven by event/headline sensitivity rather than observed counter-mass.", "Prior market state not provided; state_change computed against unknown_prior (treated as neutral baseline)." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }