Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: coffee
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 4
- top_risk_flag: geopolitical_shipping_sensitivity (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-17T21:30:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coffee | B1 | Ongoing global logistics/shipping disruption risk is supporting upward coffee futures price pressure via higher delivery frictions and tighter effective supply. | 68 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 44 |
| coffee | B2 | Labour constraints and rising production/input cost narratives are supportive of higher coffee futures through cost-push and supply tightness expectations. | 66 | up | stable | 24h | false | 44 |
| coffee | B3 | Retail-chain expansion and beverage market-growth narratives are mildly supportive of coffee futures via demand expectations, especially in developed consumer markets. | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 44 |
| coffee | B4 | Trade/tariff and policy uncertainty is adding volatility; net effect is biased to upside if it constrains exports/flows, but the path is headline-sensitive. | 55 | mixed | stable | 6h | false | 44 |
Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-20260417-coffee-KC-001", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-17T21:30:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Coffee futures (KC)", "market_code": "coffee" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "coffee", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "coffee" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B1", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Ongoing global logistics/shipping disruption risk is supporting upward coffee futures price pressure via higher delivery frictions and tighter effective supply.", "probability_pct": 68, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "shipping_freight", "origin_supply" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 76, "authority_confirmation_band": "high" }, { "belief_id": "B2", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Labour constraints and rising production/input cost narratives are supportive of higher coffee futures through cost-push and supply tightness expectations.", "probability_pct": 66, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "labour_costs", "origin_supply" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 71, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70, "authority_confirmation_band": "high" }, { "belief_id": "B3", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Retail-chain expansion and beverage market-growth narratives are mildly supportive of coffee futures via demand expectations, especially in developed consumer markets.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "consumption_trends" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B4", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Trade/tariff and policy uncertainty is adding volatility; net effect is biased to upside if it constrains exports/flows, but the path is headline-sensitive.", "probability_pct": 55, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "shipping_freight", "origin_supply" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72, "authority_confirmation_band": "high" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "coffee", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70, "authority_confirmation_band": "high", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B1", "B2", "B3", "B4" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 153, "B": 10, "C": 5, "D": 280, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_24h_signal_count": 6, "mid_24_72h_signal_count": 4, "stale_gt_72h_signal_count": 0 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "geopolitical_shipping_sensitivity", "market": "coffee", "severity": "medium", "notes": "Logistics-linked upside thesis can reverse quickly if transit risk de-escalates or capacity normalises." }, { "flag": "policy_headline_risk", "market": "coffee", "severity": "medium", "notes": "Tariff/trade-policy narratives increase near-term whipsaw risk even if net bias remains upward." }, { "flag": "authority_vs_mass_mix", "market": "coffee", "severity": "low", "notes": "Directional mass is broad; authority confirmation is solid but corpus includes a high share of lower-tier sources." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "coffee", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "If fresh logistics/cost-squeeze signals persist into the next cycle without meaningful counterevidence." }, { "market": "coffee", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If policy/tariff or shipping-route headlines accelerate (in either direction) inside a 6h window." }, { "market": "coffee", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent fresh (<=2h) signals indicate easing logistics or improving supply conditions." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "coffee" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 48, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 48, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 48, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 47, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 50, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 47, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 50, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 4, 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"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 41, "bullish_pressure_score": 51, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 41, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 43, "bullish_pressure_score": 53, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 43, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 43, "bullish_pressure_score": 53, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 43, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 43, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 43, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 42, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 42, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 46, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 46, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 41, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 46, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 46, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 41, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 41, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 50, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 50, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "fragility_score_0_100": 40, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 52, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 52, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 39, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 58, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 58, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 73, "fragility_score_0_100": 40, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 60, "bullish_pressure_score": 70, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 60, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 75, "fragility_score_0_100": 41, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 60, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 6, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "balanced", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 10, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 0, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "No per-record timestamp stream was provided to 6B; timeseries buckets approximate recency using trend-level newest timestamps and visible in-window record timestamps.", "No explicit opposing (price-down) coffee-specific evidence was present in the admitted signal set; reversal risk is therefore driven by event/headline sensitivity rather than observed counter-mass.", "Prior market state not provided; state_change computed against unknown_prior (treated as neutral baseline)." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }