Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: coffee
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: data_sparsity_timeseries (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-17 07:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-1 Near-term coffee futures are biased upward as supply-chain friction and farm input/labour constraints keep perceived supply tight. 63 up accelerating 6h false 44
coffee B-coffee-2 Coffee futures retain an upward bias into the next day as demand expansion signals (retail chain growth / beverages market expansion) coexist with persistent supply-risk narratives. 60 up stable 24h false 44

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_coffee_2026-04-17T07:00:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-17T07:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-1",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Near-term coffee futures are biased upward as supply-chain friction and farm input/labour constraints keep perceived supply tight.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Logistics disruption risk (shipping delays/port congestion / trade-flow friction)",
 "Labour availability / enforcement-driven farm labour tightness",
 "Rising/volatile production inputs (fertiliser/fuel) and cost pressure signals"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-2",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Coffee futures retain an upward bias into the next day as demand expansion signals (retail chain growth / beverages market expansion) coexist with persistent supply-risk narratives.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Consumption channel expansion / retail footprint growth signals",
 "Persistent supply-risk overhang (disease/pest + production stability concerns)",
 "Macro/geopolitical logistics risk premium"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-1",
 "B-coffee-2"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 112,
 "B": 8,
 "C": 1,
 "D": 195,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "evidence_age_0_6h_est": 3,
 "evidence_age_6_24h_est": 6,
 "evidence_age_24_72h_est": 5,
 "evidence_age_gt_72h_est": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity_timeseries",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Per-record timestamps were not fully available in this 6B input slice; hourly buckets are conservative."
 },
 {
 "flag": "macro_logistics_risk_premium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Logistics/geopolitical narratives can gap sentiment quickly; monitor for sudden de-escalation or rerouting that removes the risk premium."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh supply-tightness/logistics-friction signals continue to dominate the next 6\u201324h with no opposing evidence mass."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent, very fresh (<=2h) records indicate rapid easing of logistics constraints or a clear demand shock."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio rises materially (mixed supply easing + demand weakness) while headline conviction falls below ~55."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If new evidence becomes sparse and the signal collapses to neutral/mixed (directional score between -20 and +20)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 52,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 12,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 7,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly as coffee; single-market scope enforced.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects present in admitted corpus; counterevidence treated as low rather than absent authority.",
 "State-change computed with unknown prior-state context; emitted as 'unchanged' to avoid forcing a transition label."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}