Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: coffee
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: data_sparsity_timeseries (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-17 07:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coffee | B-coffee-1 | Near-term coffee futures are biased upward as supply-chain friction and farm input/labour constraints keep perceived supply tight. | 63 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 44 |
| coffee | B-coffee-2 | Coffee futures retain an upward bias into the next day as demand expansion signals (retail chain growth / beverages market expansion) coexist with persistent supply-risk narratives. | 60 | up | stable | 24h | false | 44 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_coffee_2026-04-17T07:00:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-17T07:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-1",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term coffee futures are biased upward as supply-chain friction and farm input/labour constraints keep perceived supply tight.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Logistics disruption risk (shipping delays/port congestion / trade-flow friction)",
"Labour availability / enforcement-driven farm labour tightness",
"Rising/volatile production inputs (fertiliser/fuel) and cost pressure signals"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-2",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Coffee futures retain an upward bias into the next day as demand expansion signals (retail chain growth / beverages market expansion) coexist with persistent supply-risk narratives.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Consumption channel expansion / retail footprint growth signals",
"Persistent supply-risk overhang (disease/pest + production stability concerns)",
"Macro/geopolitical logistics risk premium"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-1",
"B-coffee-2"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 112,
"B": 8,
"C": 1,
"D": 195,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"evidence_age_0_6h_est": 3,
"evidence_age_6_24h_est": 6,
"evidence_age_24_72h_est": 5,
"evidence_age_gt_72h_est": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "data_sparsity_timeseries",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Per-record timestamps were not fully available in this 6B input slice; hourly buckets are conservative."
},
{
"flag": "macro_logistics_risk_premium",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Logistics/geopolitical narratives can gap sentiment quickly; monitor for sudden de-escalation or rerouting that removes the risk premium."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh supply-tightness/logistics-friction signals continue to dominate the next 6\u201324h with no opposing evidence mass."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent, very fresh (<=2h) records indicate rapid easing of logistics constraints or a clear demand shock."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio rises materially (mixed supply easing + demand weakness) while headline conviction falls below ~55."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If new evidence becomes sparse and the signal collapses to neutral/mixed (directional score between -20 and +20)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 52,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 12,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 7,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly as coffee; single-market scope enforced.",
"No explicit contradiction objects present in admitted corpus; counterevidence treated as low rather than absent authority.",
"State-change computed with unknown prior-state context; emitted as 'unchanged' to avoid forcing a transition label."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}