Snapshot

  • subject_area: Uranium futures (U3O8)
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: RF-UR-RECENCY_DOMINANCE (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-16T15:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-UR-001 Policy and regulatory tailwinds for nuclear build/SMR deployment are accumulating, supporting near-term uranium demand expectations and a constructive bias for uranium futures. 62% up accelerating 6h false 38
uranium B-UR-002 Mining/supply-chain narrative remains supportive with continued attention on major producers and uranium project pipelines, reinforcing bullish positioning bias into the next 24 hours. 68% up stable 24h false 38

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-uranium-20260416T150000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-16T15:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Uranium futures (U3O8)",
 "market_code": "uranium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "uranium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Policy and regulatory tailwinds for nuclear build/SMR deployment are accumulating, supporting near-term uranium demand expectations and a constructive bias for uranium futures.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "T-038 (NRC: regulation & innovation) fresh update cluster on 2026-04-16",
 "T-004 (SHANTI Act: nuclear energy policy) fresh update cluster on 2026-04-16",
 "T-001 (UK government: nuclear expansion) fresh update cluster on 2026-04-16",
 "T-002 (European Commission: energy security strategies) fresh update cluster on 2026-04-16"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 80,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-002",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Mining/supply-chain narrative remains supportive with continued attention on major producers and uranium project pipelines, reinforcing bullish positioning bias into the next 24 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 68,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "T-020 (Cameco: uranium mining developments) continued coverage through 2026-04-15",
 "T-002 includes Kazatomprom mentions within broader energy-security context",
 "Risk-anomaly lane highlights sector attention (RA-001) without presenting direct bearish counter-evidence"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 86,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-UR-001",
 "B-UR-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 74,
 "B": 10,
 "C": 10,
 "D": 135,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_est": 6,
 "fresh_6_24h_est": 18,
 "stale_gt_24h_est": 10,
 "basis": "estimated from newest timestamps per admitted trends + provided source_ref_sample flags (non-exhaustive)"
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-UR-RECENCY_DOMINANCE",
 "market": "uranium",
 "level": "medium",
 "description": "Signal is strongly driven by very recent policy/regulatory items; headline sensitivity can raise short-term volatility without requiring fundamental reversal."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-UR-LOW_COUNTEREVIDENCE_VISIBILITY",
 "market": "uranium",
 "level": "medium",
 "description": "Current admitted corpus contains minimal explicit opposing evidence; reversal detection confidence is limited by lack of fresh bearish datapoints rather than by contradiction."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-UR_REPUTATIONAL_AMPLIFIER_LANE",
 "market": "uranium",
 "level": "low",
 "description": "Risk-anomaly lane includes single-source reputational amplifiers (e.g., RA-001/RA-002) which can add noise and event-driven volatility."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "label": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Bullish directional score remains >= +20 with fresh evidence count staying elevated in the next 6h buckets."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "label": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Two or more independent bearish/invalidating records appear within <=2h AND contradiction ratio rises materially versus prior buckets."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "label": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Policy/regulatory headline cadence remains high while evidence concentration increases (echo-risk flags appear or unique-source breadth compresses)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 39,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 62,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 62,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 37,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 70,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 70,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 35,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 70,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 8,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 11,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Scope constrained to single market: uranium.",
 "One trend (T-015) not admitted due to weak/ambiguous mapping to uranium vs crude-oil/geopolitical shipping headline; counted as unmapped for this single-market run.",
 "source_tier_counts are raw-summed across admitted trends and may double-count shared underlying records.",
 "state_change set to new_bullish using neutral baseline because no prior state memory was provided to workflow 6B."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}