Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium futures (U3O8)
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: RF-UR-RECENCY_DOMINANCE (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-16T15:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim (trimmed) | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| uranium | B-UR-001 | Policy and regulatory tailwinds for nuclear build/SMR deployment are accumulating, supporting near-term uranium demand expectations and a constructive bias for uranium futures. | 62% | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 38 |
| uranium | B-UR-002 | Mining/supply-chain narrative remains supportive with continued attention on major producers and uranium project pipelines, reinforcing bullish positioning bias into the next 24 hours. | 68% | up | stable | 24h | false | 38 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-uranium-20260416T150000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-16T15:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium futures (U3O8)",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 38,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-001",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Policy and regulatory tailwinds for nuclear build/SMR deployment are accumulating, supporting near-term uranium demand expectations and a constructive bias for uranium futures.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"T-038 (NRC: regulation & innovation) fresh update cluster on 2026-04-16",
"T-004 (SHANTI Act: nuclear energy policy) fresh update cluster on 2026-04-16",
"T-001 (UK government: nuclear expansion) fresh update cluster on 2026-04-16",
"T-002 (European Commission: energy security strategies) fresh update cluster on 2026-04-16"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 80,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-002",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Mining/supply-chain narrative remains supportive with continued attention on major producers and uranium project pipelines, reinforcing bullish positioning bias into the next 24 hours.",
"probability_pct": 68,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"T-020 (Cameco: uranium mining developments) continued coverage through 2026-04-15",
"T-002 includes Kazatomprom mentions within broader energy-security context",
"Risk-anomaly lane highlights sector attention (RA-001) without presenting direct bearish counter-evidence"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 86,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 38,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-UR-001",
"B-UR-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 74,
"B": 10,
"C": 10,
"D": 135,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_est": 6,
"fresh_6_24h_est": 18,
"stale_gt_24h_est": 10,
"basis": "estimated from newest timestamps per admitted trends + provided source_ref_sample flags (non-exhaustive)"
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-UR-RECENCY_DOMINANCE",
"market": "uranium",
"level": "medium",
"description": "Signal is strongly driven by very recent policy/regulatory items; headline sensitivity can raise short-term volatility without requiring fundamental reversal."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-UR-LOW_COUNTEREVIDENCE_VISIBILITY",
"market": "uranium",
"level": "medium",
"description": "Current admitted corpus contains minimal explicit opposing evidence; reversal detection confidence is limited by lack of fresh bearish datapoints rather than by contradiction."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-UR_REPUTATIONAL_AMPLIFIER_LANE",
"market": "uranium",
"level": "low",
"description": "Risk-anomaly lane includes single-source reputational amplifiers (e.g., RA-001/RA-002) which can add noise and event-driven volatility."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"label": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Bullish directional score remains >= +20 with fresh evidence count staying elevated in the next 6h buckets."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"label": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Two or more independent bearish/invalidating records appear within <=2h AND contradiction ratio rises materially versus prior buckets."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"label": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Policy/regulatory headline cadence remains high while evidence concentration increases (echo-risk flags appear or unique-source breadth compresses)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 39,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 62,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 37,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 70,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 70,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"fragility_score_0_100": 35,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 70,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 8,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 11,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Scope constrained to single market: uranium.",
"One trend (T-015) not admitted due to weak/ambiguous mapping to uranium vs crude-oil/geopolitical shipping headline; counted as unmapped for this single-market run.",
"source_tier_counts are raw-summed across admitted trends and may double-count shared underlying records.",
"state_change set to new_bullish using neutral baseline because no prior state memory was provided to workflow 6B."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}