Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: fundamental_data_gap_weather_storage
  • generated_at: 2026-04-16 12:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-001 Near-term natural gas futures pricing is biased upward as geopolitical escalation risk (sanctions / transit-route disruption narratives affecting LNG supply routes) increases risk premium over the next 6–24h. 62 up accelerating 24h false 55
natural_gas B-NG-002 Operational disruption/uncertainty around LNG export flows (e.g., Golden Pass LNG-related risk signal) can cap near-term upside and create downside pressure on domestic natural gas futures within ~24h. 41 down stable 24h false 55
natural_gas B-NG-003 Absent fresh, directly-on-point fundamentals (weather/storage surprises) in the admitted signal set, the next 6–24h is more likely volatility-led than trend-led, with bullish bias but elevated fragility. 58 mixed fading 6h false 55

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_natural_gas_2026-04-16T12:00:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-16T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Near-term natural gas futures pricing is biased upward as geopolitical escalation risk (sanctions / transit-route disruption narratives affecting LNG supply routes) increases risk premium over the next 6\u201324h.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Energy geopolitics: Iran / Strait of Hormuz escalation narrative clustering",
 "LNG supply-route risk premium spillover into gas pricing expectations",
 "Broad multi-source coverage with Tier-A participation (e.g., Reuters/FT/BBC mix in the admitted corpus)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-NG-002 (LNG export operational disruption reducing feedgas demand)",
 "De-escalation / lack of follow-through (risk-premium fade)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 69,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Operational disruption/uncertainty around LNG export flows (e.g., Golden Pass LNG-related risk signal) can cap near-term upside and create downside pressure on domestic natural gas futures within ~24h.",
 "probability_pct": 41,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "LNG export flows: feedgas demand sensitivity to export facility operations",
 "Operational-surge risk framing (single/low-count evidence in this cycle)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-NG-001 (geopolitical risk premium dominating sentiment)",
 "Any confirmation that export disruptions are minor/temporary"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 46,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 44,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-003",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Absent fresh, directly-on-point fundamentals (weather/storage surprises) in the admitted signal set, the next 6\u201324h is more likely volatility-led than trend-led, with bullish bias but elevated fragility.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Evidence mix is heavily geopolitical and narrative-driven",
 "Limited explicit storage-level and seasonal-weather-demand datapoints in admitted inputs"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Fresh weather-driven demand shock",
 "Fresh storage surprise (EIA-style) entering the corpus"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 63,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 76,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
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 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-NG-001",
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 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 18,
 "B": 2,
 "C": 1,
 "D": 19,
 "U": 0
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 "fresh_6_24h": 5,
 "stale_24_72h": 2,
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 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "geopolitical_risk_premium_dominant",
 "severity": "medium",
 "why": "Directional mass is driven primarily by Iran/Hormuz/sanctions narratives that can fade quickly without new escalation."
 },
 {
 "flag": "lng_export_flow_uncertainty",
 "severity": "medium",
 "why": "A countervailing operational signal around LNG export flows can reduce feedgas demand and cap upside; evidence is thinner but relevant."
 },
 {
 "flag": "fundamental_data_gap_weather_storage",
 "severity": "high",
 "why": "Within admitted inputs, explicit storage-level and seasonal weather-demand evidence is limited, increasing fragility and noise sensitivity."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Fresh reinforcement of LNG supply-route disruption risk and/or additional independent Tier-A confirmations within the next 6h."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Any intraday headlines indicating escalation/de-escalation around transit routes/sanctions or confirmed LNG export facility disruptions."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Two or more fresh (<=2h) independent signals pointing to demand softness or sustained LNG export curtailments (feedgas demand drop)."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
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 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
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 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
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 "net_sentiment_score": 51,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T08:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T09:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 49,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 49,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T09:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T10:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T10:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T11:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T11:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -10,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 13,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 8,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Scope locked to single market: natural_gas (explicit in flight plan).",
 "Admitted corpus is heavily energy-geopolitics/LNG-route risk; explicit storage-level and weather-demand datapoints were not prominent in the provided signals for this cycle.",
 "No explicit contradictory trends were provided; counterpressure is primarily from thin operational risk signals around LNG export flow disruptions."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}