Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker:
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw
- generated_at: 2026-04-16 04:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim (trimmed) |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-001 |
Near-term geopolitical and infrastructure disruption narratives (shipping chokepoints, pipeline/security incidents) are exerting net upside price pressure on natural gas-linked pricing benchmarks and spilling into NG futures sentiment. |
60 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
62 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-002 |
The current directional signal is fragile because the dominant catalysts are event-driven (geopolitical escalation/de-escalation), making fast reversals plausible even without clear counterevidence in the corpus. |
67 |
mixed |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis_natural_gas_20260416T040000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-16T04:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term geopolitical and infrastructure disruption narratives (shipping chokepoints, pipeline/security incidents) are exerting net upside price pressure on natural gas-linked pricing benchmarks and spilling into NG futures sentiment.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"energy_geopolitics",
"pipeline_infrastructure",
"production_outages",
"lng_export_flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Potential US Henry Hub decoupling if export outages increase domestic supply availability"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "The current directional signal is fragile because the dominant catalysts are event-driven (geopolitical escalation/de-escalation), making fast reversals plausible even without clear counterevidence in the corpus.",
"probability_pct": 67,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"energy_geopolitics",
"lng_export_flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 54,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 68,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 19,
"B": 2,
"C": 1,
"D": 26,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_est": 10,
"fresh_6_24h_est": 14,
"stale_gt_24h_est": 18,
"notes": "Estimates derived from trend-level evidence recency proxies and 'late_surge/sustained' temporal profiles; per-record bucketization not available in this workflow input."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"notes": "Signal is dominated by geopolitical escalation narratives; de-escalation could reduce risk premium quickly."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"flag": "cross_benchmark_decoupling",
"severity": "medium",
"notes": "Corpus mixes global LNG/shipping disruption narratives with NG futures; Henry Hub vs global LNG linkage may be unstable intraday."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-003",
"market": "natural_gas",
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"notes": "Several supporting narratives span >7 days; while fresh updates exist, the theme persistence can mask regime shifts."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) independent signals continue to cluster on supply-route / infrastructure disruption without offsetting demand-destruction or storage-build evidence."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If late-surge geopolitical items persist and coverage breadth stays high; expect rapid repricing risk."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh counter-signals appear (<=2h) indicating de-escalation, restored flows, or explicit resolution of the dominant disruption narrative."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": -3,
"velocity_score": -7,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": -10,
"velocity_score": -7,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 11,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 41,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -10,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 17,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 7,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to natural_gas.",
"Admitted signals were constrained to items with explicit gas/LNG/pipeline relevance; broader 'general geopolitics' items were treated as background and down-weighted.",
"Directional mapping is based on risk-premium/supply-disruption logic rather than direct weather/storage data; this increases fragility and keeps reversal risk elevated."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}