Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw
  • generated_at: 2026-04-16 04:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-001 Near-term geopolitical and infrastructure disruption narratives (shipping chokepoints, pipeline/security incidents) are exerting net upside price pressure on natural gas-linked pricing benchmarks and spilling into NG futures sentiment. 60 up accelerating 24h false 62
natural_gas B-NG-002 The current directional signal is fragile because the dominant catalysts are event-driven (geopolitical escalation/de-escalation), making fast reversals plausible even without clear counterevidence in the corpus. 67 mixed accelerating 6h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "cis_natural_gas_20260416T040000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-16T04:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Near-term geopolitical and infrastructure disruption narratives (shipping chokepoints, pipeline/security incidents) are exerting net upside price pressure on natural gas-linked pricing benchmarks and spilling into NG futures sentiment.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_geopolitics",
 "pipeline_infrastructure",
 "production_outages",
 "lng_export_flows"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Potential US Henry Hub decoupling if export outages increase domestic supply availability"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "The current directional signal is fragile because the dominant catalysts are event-driven (geopolitical escalation/de-escalation), making fast reversals plausible even without clear counterevidence in the corpus.",
 "probability_pct": 67,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_geopolitics",
 "lng_export_flows"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 54,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 68,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-NG-001",
 "B-NG-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 19,
 "B": 2,
 "C": 1,
 "D": 26,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_est": 10,
 "fresh_6_24h_est": 14,
 "stale_gt_24h_est": 18,
 "notes": "Estimates derived from trend-level evidence recency proxies and 'late_surge/sustained' temporal profiles; per-record bucketization not available in this workflow input."
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "notes": "Signal is dominated by geopolitical escalation narratives; de-escalation could reduce risk premium quickly."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "flag": "cross_benchmark_decoupling",
 "severity": "medium",
 "notes": "Corpus mixes global LNG/shipping disruption narratives with NG futures; Henry Hub vs global LNG linkage may be unstable intraday."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-003",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "low",
 "notes": "Several supporting narratives span >7 days; while fresh updates exist, the theme persistence can mask regime shifts."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) independent signals continue to cluster on supply-route / infrastructure disruption without offsetting demand-destruction or storage-build evidence."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If late-surge geopolitical items persist and coverage breadth stays high; expect rapid repricing risk."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh counter-signals appear (<=2h) indicating de-escalation, restored flows, or explicit resolution of the dominant disruption narrative."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -3,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": -3,
 "velocity_score": -7,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": -10,
 "velocity_score": -7,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": -6,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 11,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 9,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 41,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -10,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 17,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 7,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to natural_gas.",
 "Admitted signals were constrained to items with explicit gas/LNG/pipeline relevance; broader 'general geopolitics' items were treated as background and down-weighted.",
 "Directional mapping is based on risk-premium/supply-disruption logic rather than direct weather/storage data; this increases fragility and keeps reversal risk elevated."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}