Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: low_authority_tail_present
  • generated_at: 2026-04-16 06:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-LI-001 Near-term lithium futures sentiment skews upward as EV adoption + battery manufacturing capacity expansion narratives dominate the freshest newsflow. 62 up accelerating 24h false 38
lithium B-LI-002 Policy/incentive and narrative-risk signals introduce a modest downside tail (headline-driven whipsaw risk) despite an overall bullish corpus tilt. 28 down stable 24h false 38

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-20260416T060000Z-lithium", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-16T06:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Lithium futures", "market_code": "lithium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 38, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "lithium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "lithium" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-LI-001", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Near-term lithium futures sentiment skews upward as EV adoption + battery manufacturing capacity expansion narratives dominate the freshest newsflow.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "EV adoption / delivery momentum themes (BYD/Tesla/China auto channel) treated as lithium-demand proxy", "Battery manufacturing capacity expansion (CATL/gigafactory buildout) treated as upstream raw-material demand support", "Broad multi-source reinforcement with fresh updates inside the last ~6h" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-LI-002" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-LI-002", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Policy/incentive and narrative-risk signals introduce a modest downside tail (headline-driven whipsaw risk) despite an overall bullish corpus tilt.", "probability_pct": 28, "direction": "down", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Singleton negative-policy VIP item (low corroboration / low diversity)", "Long-span (>7d) background narratives can detach from near-term pricing and re-rate quickly" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-LI-001" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 35, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "lithium", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "low", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 38, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-LI-001", "B-LI-002" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 18, "B": 3, "C": 3, "D": 30, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_window_hours": 24, "fresh_evidence_0_6h_estimate": 7, "fresh_evidence_6_24h_estimate": 10, "stale_background_signals_estimate": 4, "newest_evidence_utc": "2026-04-16T05:22:17Z", "oldest_context_utc_in_admitted_set": "2026-03-30T19:08:48Z", "staleness_overhang_flag": false } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "low_authority_tail_present", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Some admitted lithium-adjacent narratives carry a heavy Tier-D share despite broad source breadth; treat as sentiment-supportive but potentially fragile." }, { "flag": "single_source_vip_noise", "severity": "low", "detail": "Several VIP outliers are single-source (echo-risk true); they are not treated as strong counter-evidence unless corroborated." }, { "flag": "indirect_driver_mapping", "severity": "medium", "detail": "A portion of directional mass comes from EV adoption / battery capacity themes (demand proxy), not direct lithium spot/futures price reporting." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) multi-source confirmation continues without material contradictory signals, maintain watch_long_bias label." }, { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent fresh (<=2h) opposing signals appear (policy shock / demand miss / supply glut headline), upgrade to reversal_watch." }, { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio rises meaningfully (e.g., >=0.25) while directional score stalls, treat as volatility_watch." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "lithium" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 43, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 42, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 45, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 42, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 46, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 31, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 42, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 47, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 41, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 49, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 41, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 51, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 41, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 53, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 40, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 40, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 40, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 43, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 43, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 40, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 40, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 46, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 46, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 39, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 46, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 46, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 39, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 47, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 47, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 39, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 39, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 50, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 50, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 39, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 52, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 52, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 53, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 53, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 42, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 54, "bullish_pressure_score": 69, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 54, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 41, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 55, "bullish_pressure_score": 70, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 55, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 41, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 56, "bullish_pressure_score": 71, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 56, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 40, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 58, "bullish_pressure_score": 73, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 58, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 40, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 60, "bullish_pressure_score": 75, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 60, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "fragility_score_0_100": 39, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 62, "bullish_pressure_score": 77, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 62, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 69, "fragility_score_0_100": 39, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ], "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 62, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 2, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 10, "trends_admitted": 6, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 0, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "State-change set to 'unchanged' because no prior market_state_table / trend_state_memory was provided (unknown_prior).", "Market mapping admitted several EV/battery-manufacturing trends as lithium-demand proxies; this is indirect and increases fragility versus direct price/supply signals.", "Timeseries buckets are derived conservatively from trend-level recency cues and representative timestamps present in the provided payload (not full per-record distribution).", "No contradictions were supplied in the input; counter-evidence scoring reflects only weak single-source negatives (VIP lane) and structural narrative fragility, not confirmed opposing mass." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" } }