Snapshot
- subject_area: Gold futures
- target_market_code: gold
- ticker: null
- regime_state: rangebound
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: RF-STALE-001: stale_context_overhang (high)
- generated_at: 2026-04-16T15:01:51Z
- sentiment_word: Mixed
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| gold | B-GOLD-001 | Geopolitical-risk headlines can support a safe-haven bid in gold, but the dominant supporting corpus here is stale and only weakly refreshed in the last 24h. | 54 | up | fading | 24h | false | 72 |
| gold | B-GOLD-002 | Rates/monetary-policy narratives remain a potential cap/whipsaw driver for gold, but this run lacks fresh, gold-specific rates/USD evidence inside the last 24h window. | 50 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 72 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS-gold-20260416T150151Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-16T15:01:51Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Gold futures",
"market_code": "gold"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 42,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "gold",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"regime_state": "rangebound",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-GOLD-001",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Geopolitical-risk headlines can support a safe-haven bid in gold, but the dominant supporting corpus here is stale and only weakly refreshed in the last 24h.",
"probability_pct": 54,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 36,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 40,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-GOLD-002",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Rates/monetary-policy narratives remain a potential cap/whipsaw driver for gold, but this run lacks fresh, gold-specific rates/USD evidence inside the last 24h window.",
"probability_pct": 50,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"real_rates",
"usd_strength"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 30,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 45,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "gold",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 36,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 42,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "low",
"catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-GOLD-001",
"B-GOLD-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 36,
"B": 2,
"C": 0,
"D": 53,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 1,
"fresh_6_24h": 0,
"stale_24_72h": 0,
"stale_gt_72h": 5
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-STALE-001",
"market": "gold",
"type": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "Most mapped drivers (geopolitical-risk and rates-policy narratives) are >72h old relative to snapshot; directional inference suppressed."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-SPARSE-001",
"market": "gold",
"type": "data_sparsity",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Fresh (<=24h) gold-specific evidence is below threshold; any new macro/geopolitical update can swing state quickly."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-RECENCYFLIP-001",
"market": "gold",
"type": "recency_flip",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Single fresh seed-level geopolitical item present; insufficient corroboration to set direction, but enough to increase fragility."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "gold",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Remain neutral while fresh (<=24h) corroborated gold drivers remain below threshold and stale-suppression is active."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Upgrade to volatility watch if 2+ independent fresh (<=6h) macro/geopolitical items arrive with conflicting directional implications."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Consider a long-bias watch only if geopolitical escalation is corroborated by multiple independent sources inside 6h AND USD/real-rate signals do not simultaneously strengthen against gold."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If a fresh (<=2h) opposing macro/rates driver appears with strong authority confirmation, treat as potential regime shift due to current fragility."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T13:01:51Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 0,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T14:01:51Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 5,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 5,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 3,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": true,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly to gold.",
"Mapped geopolitical-risk and rates-policy narratives to gold drivers, but most evidence is older than 72h (largely early March 2026) versus snapshot 2026-04-16.",
"Fresh (<=24h) signal presence is seed-level and not sufficiently corroborated; direction suppressed to neutral_mixed per client settings."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}