Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: copper
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: macro_trade_policy_volatility
  • generated_at: 2026-04-16T15:01:30Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B1_demand_electrification_grid_capex Near-term copper futures sentiment tilts higher as electrification, EV infrastructure, and grid-modernisation narratives reinforce expectations of structurally rising copper demand (with China a key focus). 62 up accelerating 24h false 44
copper B2_supply_tightness_chile_disruption_risk Supply-side disruption and regulatory constraint risk around major copper producers (notably Chile-related/Codelco-linked narratives) supports a tighter physical balance perception and a higher copper risk premium. 58 up stable 24h false 44
copper B3_trade_policy_volatility_overhang Trade-policy and regulatory headlines (US-China/EU framing) raise short-horizon volatility and increase the chance of whipsaw, even if the net directional mass remains bullish. 55 mixed accelerating 6h false 44

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_copper_2026-04-16T15:01:30Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-16T15:01:30Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 77,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1_demand_electrification_grid_capex",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Near-term copper futures sentiment tilts higher as electrification, EV infrastructure, and grid-modernisation narratives reinforce expectations of structurally rising copper demand (with China a key focus).",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "industrial_demand",
 "energy_transition_demand",
 "china_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2_supply_tightness_chile_disruption_risk",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Supply-side disruption and regulatory constraint risk around major copper producers (notably Chile-related/Codelco-linked narratives) supports a tighter physical balance perception and a higher copper risk premium.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply_disruption",
 "inventory_exchange_stocks"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3_trade_policy_volatility_overhang",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Trade-policy and regulatory headlines (US-China/EU framing) raise short-horizon volatility and increase the chance of whipsaw, even if the net directional mass remains bullish.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "trade_policy",
 "china_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 77,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1_demand_electrification_grid_capex",
 "B2_supply_tightness_chile_disruption_risk",
 "B3_trade_policy_volatility_overhang"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 12,
 "B": 1,
 "C": 2,
 "D": 34,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "newest_evidence_timestamp_utc_seen": "2026-04-16T13:56:14Z",
 "fresh_0_6h_sample_records_seen": 2,
 "fresh_6_24h_sample_records_seen": 6,
 "stale_gt24h_sample_records_seen": 0,
 "sample_based": true
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "macro_trade_policy_volatility",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Trade-policy / regulatory headline density is elevated; increases whipsaw risk despite net bullish mass."
 },
 {
 "flag": "authority_mix_skews_lower_tiers",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Directional mass is broad, but a large share of supporting items appear to come from lower-tier sources; conviction remains high under balanced policy but fragility is non-trivial."
 },
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Several supporting narratives span weeks; however fresh confirmations in the latest window reduce stale invalidation risk."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain a long-bias watch if fresh supportive demand/supply-tightness headlines persist and contradiction remains low in the next 6\u201324h."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Volatility watch if trade-policy headlines accelerate (tariffs/export controls) or if contradictory macro/demand prints emerge within a 2\u20136h window."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Reversal watch if 2+ independent fresh opposing signals arrive within <=2h and contradiction ratio rises materially (late-breaking invalidation sentinel conditions)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 43,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 43,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 46,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 3,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 6,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Prior state not provided in input (no trend_state_memory / prior market_state_table); state_change set to 'unchanged' to avoid inventing a transition.",
 "Timeseries buckets are reconstructed conservatively from available summary-level recency/shape metadata; per-record timestamp granularity was not present in this payload."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}