Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: copper
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: macro_trade_policy_volatility
- generated_at: 2026-04-16T15:01:30Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| copper | B1_demand_electrification_grid_capex | Near-term copper futures sentiment tilts higher as electrification, EV infrastructure, and grid-modernisation narratives reinforce expectations of structurally rising copper demand (with China a key focus). | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 44 |
| copper | B2_supply_tightness_chile_disruption_risk | Supply-side disruption and regulatory constraint risk around major copper producers (notably Chile-related/Codelco-linked narratives) supports a tighter physical balance perception and a higher copper risk premium. | 58 | up | stable | 24h | false | 44 |
| copper | B3_trade_policy_volatility_overhang | Trade-policy and regulatory headlines (US-China/EU framing) raise short-horizon volatility and increase the chance of whipsaw, even if the net directional mass remains bullish. | 55 | mixed | accelerating | 6h | false | 44 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_copper_2026-04-16T15:01:30Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-16T15:01:30Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 77,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1_demand_electrification_grid_capex",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Near-term copper futures sentiment tilts higher as electrification, EV infrastructure, and grid-modernisation narratives reinforce expectations of structurally rising copper demand (with China a key focus).",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"industrial_demand",
"energy_transition_demand",
"china_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B2_supply_tightness_chile_disruption_risk",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Supply-side disruption and regulatory constraint risk around major copper producers (notably Chile-related/Codelco-linked narratives) supports a tighter physical balance perception and a higher copper risk premium.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply_disruption",
"inventory_exchange_stocks"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B3_trade_policy_volatility_overhang",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Trade-policy and regulatory headlines (US-China/EU framing) raise short-horizon volatility and increase the chance of whipsaw, even if the net directional mass remains bullish.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"trade_policy",
"china_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
"conviction_score_0_100": 77,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1_demand_electrification_grid_capex",
"B2_supply_tightness_chile_disruption_risk",
"B3_trade_policy_volatility_overhang"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 12,
"B": 1,
"C": 2,
"D": 34,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"newest_evidence_timestamp_utc_seen": "2026-04-16T13:56:14Z",
"fresh_0_6h_sample_records_seen": 2,
"fresh_6_24h_sample_records_seen": 6,
"stale_gt24h_sample_records_seen": 0,
"sample_based": true
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "macro_trade_policy_volatility",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Trade-policy / regulatory headline density is elevated; increases whipsaw risk despite net bullish mass."
},
{
"flag": "authority_mix_skews_lower_tiers",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Directional mass is broad, but a large share of supporting items appear to come from lower-tier sources; conviction remains high under balanced policy but fragility is non-trivial."
},
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Several supporting narratives span weeks; however fresh confirmations in the latest window reduce stale invalidation risk."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain a long-bias watch if fresh supportive demand/supply-tightness headlines persist and contradiction remains low in the next 6\u201324h."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Volatility watch if trade-policy headlines accelerate (tariffs/export controls) or if contradictory macro/demand prints emerge within a 2\u20136h window."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Reversal watch if 2+ independent fresh opposing signals arrive within <=2h and contradiction ratio rises materially (late-breaking invalidation sentinel conditions)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T16:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T16:00:00Z",
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T17:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T19:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T19:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T20:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T21:00:00Z",
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T22:00:00Z",
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{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T23:00:00Z",
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},
{
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
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"velocity_score": 1,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T05:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T07:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
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"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T09:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T10:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T10:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 35,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
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"velocity_score": 3,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 43,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 43,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 46,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 3,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 6,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Prior state not provided in input (no trend_state_memory / prior market_state_table); state_change set to 'unchanged' to avoid inventing a transition.",
"Timeseries buckets are reconstructed conservatively from available summary-level recency/shape metadata; per-record timestamp granularity was not present in this payload."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}