Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: trade_policy_headline_whipsaw_risk
  • generated_at: 2026-04-16T07:02:20Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-COPPER-01 Net demand-side narrative (electrification, grid buildout, EV infrastructure) remains supportive for copper futures over the next 24h. 68 up accelerating 24h false 38
copper B-COPPER-02 Supply-side disruption risk (mine operational/regulatory constraints) continues to bias copper price risk to the upside over the next 24h. 62 up stable 24h false 38
copper B-COPPER-03 Near-term (6h) copper futures sentiment is constructive but vulnerable to policy/trade-driven whipsaw. 55 mixed fading 6h false 38

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_copper_20260416T070220Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-16T07:02:20Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-COPPER-01",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Net demand-side narrative (electrification, grid buildout, EV infrastructure) remains supportive for copper futures over the next 24h.",
 "probability_pct": 68,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "industrial_demand",
 "china_policy",
 "energy_transition_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Trade-policy headline risk could temporarily pressure risk appetite / industrial growth expectations."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 80,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-COPPER-02",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Supply-side disruption risk (mine operational/regulatory constraints) continues to bias copper price risk to the upside over the next 24h.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply_disruption",
 "inventory_exchange_stocks"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "If disruption signals fail to corroborate further, the tightness premium can fade."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-COPPER-03",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Near-term (6h) copper futures sentiment is constructive but vulnerable to policy/trade-driven whipsaw.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "trade_policy",
 "china_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-COPPER-01",
 "B-COPPER-02",
 "B-COPPER-03"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 123,
 "B": 23,
 "C": 8,
 "D": 342,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 2,
 "fresh_6_24h": 9,
 "stale_24_72h": 1,
 "stale_gt_72h": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 "trade_policy_headline_whipsaw_risk",
 "low_authority_share_background_noise",
 "seed_level_risk_anomalies_unmaterialised_evidence",
 "single_source_vip_outlier_noise_present"
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh confirming evidence continues to arrive without credible opposing evidence in the next 6h, maintain a long-bias watch posture.",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias"
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If trade-policy headlines accelerate and intraday narratives diverge (contradiction ratio rises), monitor for volatility expansion.",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch"
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If two or more independent fresh opposing signals appear within 2h (e.g., demand shock / hard macro downside) and contradiction spikes materially, switch to reversal monitoring.",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch"
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If evidence freshness deteriorates (no new confirmations >24h) while fragility rises, prefer flat/watch mode until refreshed.",
 "action_label": "stay_flat"
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T10:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
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 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T11:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T11:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T13:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T14:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T14:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 54,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 36,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T15:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T16:00:00Z",
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T17:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -12,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 54,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 36,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": -12,
 "acceleration_score": -24,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
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 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": -8,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 54,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 8,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 10,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to copper; single-market constraints applied.",
 "No explicit contradictions provided in admitted corpus; counterevidence treated as low/limited.",
 "Some risk anomalies are seed-level with unmaterialised evidence; used as fragility/volatility flags rather than hard counterevidence.",
 "State_change set as new_bullish due to unknown prior state (no trend_state_memory provided)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}