Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: trade_policy_headline_whipsaw_risk
- generated_at: 2026-04-16T07:02:20Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| copper |
B-COPPER-01 |
Net demand-side narrative (electrification, grid buildout, EV infrastructure) remains supportive for copper futures over the next 24h. |
68 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
38 |
| copper |
B-COPPER-02 |
Supply-side disruption risk (mine operational/regulatory constraints) continues to bias copper price risk to the upside over the next 24h. |
62 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
38 |
| copper |
B-COPPER-03 |
Near-term (6h) copper futures sentiment is constructive but vulnerable to policy/trade-driven whipsaw. |
55 |
mixed |
fading |
6h |
false |
38 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_copper_20260416T070220Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-16T07:02:20Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 38,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-COPPER-01",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Net demand-side narrative (electrification, grid buildout, EV infrastructure) remains supportive for copper futures over the next 24h.",
"probability_pct": 68,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"industrial_demand",
"china_policy",
"energy_transition_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Trade-policy headline risk could temporarily pressure risk appetite / industrial growth expectations."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 80,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-COPPER-02",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Supply-side disruption risk (mine operational/regulatory constraints) continues to bias copper price risk to the upside over the next 24h.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply_disruption",
"inventory_exchange_stocks"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"If disruption signals fail to corroborate further, the tightness premium can fade."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-COPPER-03",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Near-term (6h) copper futures sentiment is constructive but vulnerable to policy/trade-driven whipsaw.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"trade_policy",
"china_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 38,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-COPPER-01",
"B-COPPER-02",
"B-COPPER-03"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 123,
"B": 23,
"C": 8,
"D": 342,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 2,
"fresh_6_24h": 9,
"stale_24_72h": 1,
"stale_gt_72h": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
"trade_policy_headline_whipsaw_risk",
"low_authority_share_background_noise",
"seed_level_risk_anomalies_unmaterialised_evidence",
"single_source_vip_outlier_noise_present"
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh confirming evidence continues to arrive without credible opposing evidence in the next 6h, maintain a long-bias watch posture.",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias"
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If trade-policy headlines accelerate and intraday narratives diverge (contradiction ratio rises), monitor for volatility expansion.",
"action_label": "volatility_watch"
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If two or more independent fresh opposing signals appear within 2h (e.g., demand shock / hard macro downside) and contradiction spikes materially, switch to reversal monitoring.",
"action_label": "reversal_watch"
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If evidence freshness deteriorates (no new confirmations >24h) while fragility rises, prefer flat/watch mode until refreshed.",
"action_label": "stay_flat"
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T14:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 6,
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"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 36,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": -12,
"acceleration_score": -18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T17:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 36,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": -12,
"acceleration_score": -24,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": -8,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 54,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 8,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to copper; single-market constraints applied.",
"No explicit contradictions provided in admitted corpus; counterevidence treated as low/limited.",
"Some risk anomalies are seed-level with unmaterialised evidence; used as fragility/volatility flags rather than hard counterevidence.",
"State_change set as new_bullish due to unknown prior state (no trend_state_memory provided)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}