Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: cross_domain_noise_risk (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-16 06:30 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-01 Near-term coffee futures bias is upward as supply-side constraints (labour tightness + input-cost pressure + logistics friction) dominate the narrative mix. 66% up accelerating 24h false 42
coffee B-coffee-02 Volatility risk remains elevated because the dominant supply/logistics drivers are geopolitical/operational and can flip quickly with headlines. 62% mixed stable 6h false 42
coffee B-coffee-03 Demand-side tone is supportive (retail chain expansion / consumer trend narratives), reinforcing the upward price bias rather than offsetting it. 57% up fading 24h false 42

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260416-063000Z-coffee",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-16T06:30:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-01",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Near-term coffee futures bias is upward as supply-side constraints (labour tightness + input-cost pressure + logistics friction) dominate the narrative mix.",
 "probability_pct": 66,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "labour shortages / immigration enforcement pressure on agricultural production",
 "rising input costs and production cost factors (fertiliser/fuel/logistics)",
 "shipping/logistics disruptions and chokepoint risk impacting commodity flows"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "No material fresh opposing (bearish-for-price) evidence admitted in this cycle."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-02",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Volatility risk remains elevated because the dominant supply/logistics drivers are geopolitical/operational and can flip quickly with headlines.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping corridor risk / trade-flow issues (logistics uncertainty)",
 "operational surge risk signals around delays and export frictions"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "No stabilisation/normalisation narrative with fresh confirmation admitted."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 61,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-03",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Demand-side tone is supportive (retail chain expansion / consumer trend narratives), reinforcing the upward price bias rather than offsetting it.",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "coffee retail expansion / specialty demand narratives"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Demand-destruction or consumption slowdown signals not present in admitted set."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-01",
 "B-coffee-02",
 "B-coffee-03"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 78,
 "B": 1,
 "C": 4,
 "D": 181,
 "U": 0,
 "note": "Uncollapsed sum across admitted trend bundles; overlapping sources likely."
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_est": 0.55,
 "fresh_6_24h_est": 0.25,
 "stale_gt24h_est": 0.2
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "cross_domain_noise_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Several high-heat narratives are broad agri/input-cost themes; coffee-specific linkage is strong in supply/logistics items but not universal."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_authority_share_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Directional mass is broad, but a meaningful fraction of reinforcement comes from lower-tier domains (echo-risk not dominant, but present)."
 },
 {
 "flag": "geopolitical_logistics_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Logistics corridor narratives can reverse quickly with new shipping/security updates."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity_in_vip_lane",
 "severity": "low",
 "note": "Multiple VIP outliers are single-source; treated as weak additive context only."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If next-cycle evidence continues to reinforce supply/logistics tightening with low contradiction, maintain long-bias watch."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio rises or fresh opposing evidence appears within a 2-hour window, switch to reversal-watch / de-risk watch."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If operational/logistics headlines spike (delay/route disruption), treat as volatility-watch regardless of direction."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
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 }
 ],
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T03:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T04:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 43,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 43,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T04:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T05:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T05:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T06:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 }
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 46,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -18,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 6,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 13,
 "trends_admitted": 7,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to coffee.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects provided; reversal risk driven mainly by potential headline-driven logistics volatility, not by opposing evidence mass.",
 "State-change computed with unknown prior state (no trend_state_memory provided); defaulted to 'unchanged'."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}