Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: cross_domain_noise_risk (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-16 06:30 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coffee | B-coffee-01 | Near-term coffee futures bias is upward as supply-side constraints (labour tightness + input-cost pressure + logistics friction) dominate the narrative mix. | 66% | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 42 |
| coffee | B-coffee-02 | Volatility risk remains elevated because the dominant supply/logistics drivers are geopolitical/operational and can flip quickly with headlines. | 62% | mixed | stable | 6h | false | 42 |
| coffee | B-coffee-03 | Demand-side tone is supportive (retail chain expansion / consumer trend narratives), reinforcing the upward price bias rather than offsetting it. | 57% | up | fading | 24h | false | 42 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260416-063000Z-coffee",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-16T06:30:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-01",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term coffee futures bias is upward as supply-side constraints (labour tightness + input-cost pressure + logistics friction) dominate the narrative mix.",
"probability_pct": 66,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"labour shortages / immigration enforcement pressure on agricultural production",
"rising input costs and production cost factors (fertiliser/fuel/logistics)",
"shipping/logistics disruptions and chokepoint risk impacting commodity flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"No material fresh opposing (bearish-for-price) evidence admitted in this cycle."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-02",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Volatility risk remains elevated because the dominant supply/logistics drivers are geopolitical/operational and can flip quickly with headlines.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"shipping corridor risk / trade-flow issues (logistics uncertainty)",
"operational surge risk signals around delays and export frictions"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"No stabilisation/normalisation narrative with fresh confirmation admitted."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 61,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-03",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Demand-side tone is supportive (retail chain expansion / consumer trend narratives), reinforcing the upward price bias rather than offsetting it.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"coffee retail expansion / specialty demand narratives"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Demand-destruction or consumption slowdown signals not present in admitted set."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-01",
"B-coffee-02",
"B-coffee-03"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 78,
"B": 1,
"C": 4,
"D": 181,
"U": 0,
"note": "Uncollapsed sum across admitted trend bundles; overlapping sources likely."
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_est": 0.55,
"fresh_6_24h_est": 0.25,
"stale_gt24h_est": 0.2
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "cross_domain_noise_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Several high-heat narratives are broad agri/input-cost themes; coffee-specific linkage is strong in supply/logistics items but not universal."
},
{
"flag": "low_authority_share_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Directional mass is broad, but a meaningful fraction of reinforcement comes from lower-tier domains (echo-risk not dominant, but present)."
},
{
"flag": "geopolitical_logistics_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Logistics corridor narratives can reverse quickly with new shipping/security updates."
},
{
"flag": "data_sparsity_in_vip_lane",
"severity": "low",
"note": "Multiple VIP outliers are single-source; treated as weak additive context only."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If next-cycle evidence continues to reinforce supply/logistics tightening with low contradiction, maintain long-bias watch."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio rises or fresh opposing evidence appears within a 2-hour window, switch to reversal-watch / de-risk watch."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If operational/logistics headlines spike (delay/route disruption), treat as volatility-watch regardless of direction."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
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],
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
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"resolution": "30m",
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T03:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T04:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 43,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 43,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T04:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T05:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T05:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T06:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
}
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 46,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -18,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 6,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 13,
"trends_admitted": 7,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to coffee.",
"No explicit contradiction objects provided; reversal risk driven mainly by potential headline-driven logistics volatility, not by opposing evidence mass.",
"State-change computed with unknown prior state (no trend_state_memory provided); defaulted to 'unchanged'."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}