Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: null
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: momentum_cooling_after_surge
- generated_at: 2026-04-16T15:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coffee | B-coffee-01 | Near-term coffee futures price pressure remains biased upward as logistics disruptions and input/labour-cost inflation raise delivered-cost and supply-risk premia. | 63 | up | fading | 24h | false | 56 |
| coffee | B-coffee-02 | Over the next 6 hours, upside skew persists but recent acceleration has likely peaked, increasing the risk of a short consolidation/pullback even if the broader bias stays up. | 58 | mixed | fading | 6h | false | 56 |
| coffee | B-coffee-03 | Demand-side expansion in branded/specialty coffee retail supports a mild underlying bid for coffee (slower-moving driver than supply/logistics shocks). | 55 | up | stable | 24h | false | 56 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260416T150000Z-coffee-KC",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-16T15:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-01",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term coffee futures price pressure remains biased upward as logistics disruptions and input/labour-cost inflation raise delivered-cost and supply-risk premia.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"origin_supply",
"labour_costs",
"crop_conditions_disease"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-02",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Over the next 6 hours, upside skew persists but recent acceleration has likely peaked, increasing the risk of a short consolidation/pullback even if the broader bias stays up.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"weather_disruptions",
"labour_costs"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-03",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Demand-side expansion in branded/specialty coffee retail supports a mild underlying bid for coffee (slower-moving driver than supply/logistics shocks).",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"consumption_trends"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 67,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-01",
"B-coffee-02",
"B-coffee-03"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 150,
"B": 15,
"C": 3,
"D": 264,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_est": 3,
"fresh_6_24h_est": 6,
"background_24_72h_est": 3,
"stale_gt72h_est": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"flag": "momentum_cooling_after_surge",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Directional pressure remains positive but the latest hours show deceleration from the earlier peak."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"flag": "cross_domain_driver_blending",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Several drivers are broad ag-input/labour narratives; they support supply-risk premia but can be noisy for coffee-specific price timing."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"flag": "low_authority_share_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Directional mass is broad, but a meaningful share of evidence is lower-tier; increases fragility despite strong breadth."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"flag": "volatility_watch_supply_chain",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Logistics/shipping disruption narratives can reprice quickly on de-escalation headlines."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"flag": "prior_state_unknown",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "No reliable prior state memory was provided; state_change left as unchanged by conservative default."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh supply/logistics constraint signals continue to print without new counterevidence in the next 6\u201324h."
},
{
"action": "volatility_watch",
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If shipping/freight disruption headlines intensify or abruptly de-escalate (expect fast repricing)."
},
{
"action": "reversal_watch",
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh evidence appears that logistics bottlenecks ease or input-cost pressures soften (opposing the current supply-risk premium)."
},
{
"action": "stay_flat",
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio rises materially (fresh mixed-direction evidence) while momentum continues to fade."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 11,
"acceleration_score": 9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -11,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T00:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
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"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 11,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -13,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 65,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 65,
"velocity_score": 13,
"acceleration_score": 9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 62,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -16,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 65,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 14,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 7,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 9,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit contradiction objects supplied; counterevidence score kept low unless fresh opposing signals appear.",
"Timeseries buckets are conservative/aggregated because per-record timestamp physics were not provided to 6B (cache/truncation context).",
"State_change set to 'unchanged' because no reliable prior market-state memory was provided (unknown_prior)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}