Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: momentum_cooling_after_surge
  • generated_at: 2026-04-16T15:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-01 Near-term coffee futures price pressure remains biased upward as logistics disruptions and input/labour-cost inflation raise delivered-cost and supply-risk premia. 63 up fading 24h false 56
coffee B-coffee-02 Over the next 6 hours, upside skew persists but recent acceleration has likely peaked, increasing the risk of a short consolidation/pullback even if the broader bias stays up. 58 mixed fading 6h false 56
coffee B-coffee-03 Demand-side expansion in branded/specialty coffee retail supports a mild underlying bid for coffee (slower-moving driver than supply/logistics shocks). 55 up stable 24h false 56

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260416T150000Z-coffee-KC",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-16T15:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-01",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Near-term coffee futures price pressure remains biased upward as logistics disruptions and input/labour-cost inflation raise delivered-cost and supply-risk premia.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight",
 "origin_supply",
 "labour_costs",
 "crop_conditions_disease"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-02",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Over the next 6 hours, upside skew persists but recent acceleration has likely peaked, increasing the risk of a short consolidation/pullback even if the broader bias stays up.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight",
 "weather_disruptions",
 "labour_costs"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-03",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Demand-side expansion in branded/specialty coffee retail supports a mild underlying bid for coffee (slower-moving driver than supply/logistics shocks).",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "consumption_trends"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 67,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-01",
 "B-coffee-02",
 "B-coffee-03"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 150,
 "B": 15,
 "C": 3,
 "D": 264,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_est": 3,
 "fresh_6_24h_est": 6,
 "background_24_72h_est": 3,
 "stale_gt72h_est": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "flag": "momentum_cooling_after_surge",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Directional pressure remains positive but the latest hours show deceleration from the earlier peak."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "flag": "cross_domain_driver_blending",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Several drivers are broad ag-input/labour narratives; they support supply-risk premia but can be noisy for coffee-specific price timing."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "flag": "low_authority_share_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Directional mass is broad, but a meaningful share of evidence is lower-tier; increases fragility despite strong breadth."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "flag": "volatility_watch_supply_chain",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Logistics/shipping disruption narratives can reprice quickly on de-escalation headlines."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "flag": "prior_state_unknown",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "No reliable prior state memory was provided; state_change left as unchanged by conservative default."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh supply/logistics constraint signals continue to print without new counterevidence in the next 6\u201324h."
 },
 {
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If shipping/freight disruption headlines intensify or abruptly de-escalate (expect fast repricing)."
 },
 {
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh evidence appears that logistics bottlenecks ease or input-cost pressures soften (opposing the current supply-risk premium)."
 },
 {
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio rises materially (fresh mixed-direction evidence) while momentum continues to fade."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 11,
 "acceleration_score": 9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -11,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
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 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 11,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -13,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 65,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 9,
 "net_sentiment_score": 65,
 "velocity_score": 13,
 "acceleration_score": 9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 62,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 62,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -16,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 65,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 14,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 7,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 9,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit contradiction objects supplied; counterevidence score kept low unless fresh opposing signals appear.",
 "Timeseries buckets are conservative/aggregated because per-record timestamp physics were not provided to 6B (cache/truncation context).",
 "State_change set to 'unchanged' because no reliable prior market-state memory was provided (unknown_prior)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}