Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: macro_policy_whipsaw_risk (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-15 06:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-silver-001 Industrial-demand narratives (solar manufacturing / electronics supply chain) are contributing net supportive pressure for silver in the near term. 62 up accelerating 24h false 44
silver B-silver-002 Macro/real-rate and USD-linked coverage is currently being interpreted as broadly supportive for silver, reinforcing a modest bullish bias over the next 6\u201324 hours. 58 up stable 6h false 44
silver B-silver-003 Headline-driven policy/legal and supply-chain risk items are more likely to amplify volatility than flip direction outright in the next 24 hours. 55 mixed stable 24h false 44

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-silver-2026-04-15T06:00:00Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-15T06:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Silver futures", "market_code": "silver" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "silver", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "silver" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-silver-001", "market": "silver", "claim": "Industrial-demand narratives (solar manufacturing / electronics supply chain) are contributing net supportive pressure for silver in the near term.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "industrial_demand", "investment_flows" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 73, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-silver-002", "market": "silver", "claim": "Macro/real-rate and USD-linked coverage is currently being interpreted as broadly supportive for silver, reinforcing a modest bullish bias over the next 6\u201324 hours.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "monetary_policy", "usd_strength", "real_rates" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-silver-003", "market": "silver", "claim": "Headline-driven policy/legal and supply-chain risk items are more likely to amplify volatility than flip direction outright in the next 24 hours.", "probability_pct": 55, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "mine_supply", "investment_flows", "geopolitical_risk" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 54, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 40, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "silver", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-silver-001", "B-silver-002", "B-silver-003" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 53, "B": 6, "C": 2, "D": 80, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h_est": 0.22, "fresh_6_24h_est": 0.28, "stale_gt_24h_est": 0.5 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "market": "silver", "flag": "macro_policy_whipsaw_risk", "severity": "medium", "rationale": "Silver narrative cluster is highly sensitive to rates/USD expectation shifts; reversal risk elevated despite low explicit counterevidence." }, { "market": "silver", "flag": "stale_context_overhang", "severity": "low", "rationale": "Several supporting narratives span >7 days; currently mitigated by fresh confirmations in the last ~6 hours." }, { "market": "silver", "flag": "low_authority_share_overhang", "severity": "medium", "rationale": "Directional mass is broad, but a substantial portion of coverage is lower-tier; authority confirmation is supportive but not dominant." }, { "market": "silver", "flag": "single_source_outlier_noise", "severity": "low", "rationale": "Multiple VIP outliers are single-source items; treated as additive context, not primary directional drivers." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "silver", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "If net directional_score_signed remains >= +20 and contradiction_ratio stays <= 0.20 across the next 6h buckets." }, { "market": "silver", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent fresh opposing items arrive within a 2h window and directional_score_signed drops below +20 with a rising contradiction_ratio." }, { "market": "silver", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If policy/legal/sanctions-related risk headlines expand beyond single-source and propagate to Tier-A/B domains (authority_confirmation rises while directional_score_signed becomes mixed)." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "silver" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 6, "bullish_pressure_score": 16, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 6, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 6, "bullish_pressure_score": 16, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 6, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 6, "bullish_pressure_score": 16, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 6, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 41, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 7, "bullish_pressure_score": 17, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 7, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 41, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 7, "bullish_pressure_score": 17, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 7, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 43, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 9, "bullish_pressure_score": 19, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 9, "bullish_pressure_score": 19, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 11, "bullish_pressure_score": 21, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 11, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 13, "bullish_pressure_score": 23, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 13, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 14, "bullish_pressure_score": 24, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 14, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 25, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 16, "bullish_pressure_score": 26, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 16, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 51, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 28, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 30, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 32, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 34, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 47, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 40, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 44, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 34, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 8, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "No explicit contradiction objects provided in input; contradiction_ratio kept low and only nudged higher near the end to reflect macro fragility rather than true counterevidence.", "Source tier counts and freshness mix are aggregated estimates from admitted trend bundles (record-level detail truncated upstream).", "Prior state not provided to 6B; state_change set to 'unchanged' with unknown prior baseline." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }