Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-NG-RECENCY_FLIP
- generated_at: 2026-04-15T23:59:00Z
- sentiment_word: Reversal-Risk
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-001 |
Geopolitical and infrastructure-risk narratives are adding a near-term risk premium, skewing natural gas futures upside over the next 24h. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
62 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-002 |
LNG shipping/logistics headlines (flows and disruption risk) are likely to keep short-horizon natural gas volatility elevated with a modest upside tilt. |
58 |
up |
stable |
6h |
false |
55 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-003 |
Some operational signals point to improved LNG flow/logistics capacity, which could soften upside follow-through if broader confirmation arrives. |
36 |
flat |
fading |
24h |
false |
28 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-natural_gas-20260415-2359Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-15T23:59:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Geopolitical and infrastructure-risk narratives are adding a near-term risk premium, skewing natural gas futures upside over the next 24h.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"energy_geopolitics",
"pipeline_infrastructure",
"lng_export_flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Isolated/low-diversity signals implying smoother LNG logistics/flows that could cap risk premium"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "LNG shipping/logistics headlines (flows and disruption risk) are likely to keep short-horizon natural gas volatility elevated with a modest upside tilt.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"lng_export_flows",
"pipeline_infrastructure"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Single-source improvements in port/shipping flow signals (thin evidence)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-003",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Some operational signals point to improved LNG flow/logistics capacity, which could soften upside follow-through if broader confirmation arrives.",
"probability_pct": 36,
"direction": "flat",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"lng_export_flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Broader multi-source geopolitical risk escalation narratives"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 40,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 28,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002",
"B-NG-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 58,
"B": 9,
"C": 6,
"D": 112,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_share_0_1": 0.46,
"fresh_6_24h_share_0_1": 0.39,
"stale_over_24h_share_0_1": 0.15
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-RECENCY_FLIP",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Directional bias is heavily driven by very recent geopolitics/logistics headlines; risk premium can fade quickly without follow-through."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-NARRATIVE_WHIPSAW",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Geopolitical storyline density implies elevated whipsaw risk (headline-driven swings)."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-DRIVER_COVERAGE_GAP",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Signal set is lighter on direct storage/seasonal-weather datapoints relative to geopolitics/LNG logistics, increasing model fragility."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-ECHO_CONCENTRATION_POCKETS",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "low",
"description": "Some VIP/risk items are single-source; treat as low-weight until corroborated."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh multi-source confirmation of supply-route or LNG logistics stress inside the next 6h without matching counterevidence."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Any new high-authority escalation/de-escalation headline affecting LNG routes/energy security."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Two or more independent fresh signals (<=6h) indicating easing constraints (restored infrastructure / smoother LNG flows) plus falling narrative heat."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": [
"natural_gas"
]
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 56,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 56,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 65,
"bullish_pressure_score": 90,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 65,
"velocity_score": 9,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 84,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 79,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 43,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 43,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 65,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 18,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 9,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to natural_gas; analysis constrained to single-market output.",
"No explicit contradiction records present in admitted corpus; reversal_risk elevated mainly due to headline-driven (geopolitics/LNG) fragility rather than observed counterevidence mass.",
"Directional mapping used domain logic: supply-route/infrastructure disruption risk tends to skew natural gas price risk premium upward; isolated positive-flow items treated as mild capping pressure with low weight due to single-source concentration."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}