Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-NG-RECENCY_FLIP
  • generated_at: 2026-04-15T23:59:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Reversal-Risk
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-001 Geopolitical and infrastructure-risk narratives are adding a near-term risk premium, skewing natural gas futures upside over the next 24h. 62 up accelerating 24h false 62
natural_gas B-NG-002 LNG shipping/logistics headlines (flows and disruption risk) are likely to keep short-horizon natural gas volatility elevated with a modest upside tilt. 58 up stable 6h false 55
natural_gas B-NG-003 Some operational signals point to improved LNG flow/logistics capacity, which could soften upside follow-through if broader confirmation arrives. 36 flat fading 24h false 28

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-natural_gas-20260415-2359Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-15T23:59:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Geopolitical and infrastructure-risk narratives are adding a near-term risk premium, skewing natural gas futures upside over the next 24h.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_geopolitics",
 "pipeline_infrastructure",
 "lng_export_flows"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Isolated/low-diversity signals implying smoother LNG logistics/flows that could cap risk premium"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "LNG shipping/logistics headlines (flows and disruption risk) are likely to keep short-horizon natural gas volatility elevated with a modest upside tilt.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "lng_export_flows",
 "pipeline_infrastructure"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Single-source improvements in port/shipping flow signals (thin evidence)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-003",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Some operational signals point to improved LNG flow/logistics capacity, which could soften upside follow-through if broader confirmation arrives.",
 "probability_pct": 36,
 "direction": "flat",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "lng_export_flows"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Broader multi-source geopolitical risk escalation narratives"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 40,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 28,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-NG-001",
 "B-NG-002",
 "B-NG-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 58,
 "B": 9,
 "C": 6,
 "D": 112,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_share_0_1": 0.46,
 "fresh_6_24h_share_0_1": 0.39,
 "stale_over_24h_share_0_1": 0.15
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-RECENCY_FLIP",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Directional bias is heavily driven by very recent geopolitics/logistics headlines; risk premium can fade quickly without follow-through."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-NARRATIVE_WHIPSAW",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Geopolitical storyline density implies elevated whipsaw risk (headline-driven swings)."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-DRIVER_COVERAGE_GAP",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Signal set is lighter on direct storage/seasonal-weather datapoints relative to geopolitics/LNG logistics, increasing model fragility."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-ECHO_CONCENTRATION_POCKETS",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "low",
 "description": "Some VIP/risk items are single-source; treat as low-weight until corroborated."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Fresh multi-source confirmation of supply-route or LNG logistics stress inside the next 6h without matching counterevidence."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Any new high-authority escalation/de-escalation headline affecting LNG routes/energy security."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Two or more independent fresh signals (<=6h) indicating easing constraints (restored infrastructure / smoother LNG flows) plus falling narrative heat."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ]
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T05:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 56,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T08:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 65,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 90,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 65,
 "velocity_score": 9,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 84,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -14,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 79,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 43,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 43,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 65,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 18,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 2,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 9,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to natural_gas; analysis constrained to single-market output.",
 "No explicit contradiction records present in admitted corpus; reversal_risk elevated mainly due to headline-driven (geopolitics/LNG) fragility rather than observed counterevidence mass.",
 "Directional mapping used domain logic: supply-route/infrastructure disruption risk tends to skew natural gas price risk premium upward; isolated positive-flow items treated as mild capping pressure with low weight due to single-source concentration."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}