Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: headline_driven_volatility
- generated_at: 2026-04-15 13:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim (trimmed) |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-001 |
Geopolitical escalation and perceived supply-route / infrastructure disruption risk is adding a risk-premium bias to natural gas futures. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
52 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-002 |
Near-term volatility is elevated; price response is more likely to be headline-driven (gap risk) than trend-driven, increasing reversal risk even under a bullish bias. |
58 |
mixed |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
52 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-natgas-20260415T130000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-15T13:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Geopolitical escalation and perceived supply-route / infrastructure disruption risk is adding a risk-premium bias to natural gas futures.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"energy_geopolitics",
"pipeline_infrastructure",
"production_outages"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term volatility is elevated; price response is more likely to be headline-driven (gap risk) than trend-driven, increasing reversal risk even under a bullish bias.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"energy_geopolitics",
"lng_export_flows",
"pipeline_infrastructure"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 68,
"B": 4,
"C": 2,
"D": 124,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 8,
"fresh_6_24h": 20,
"fresh_24_72h": 10,
"stale_gt_72h": 6
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"flag": "headline_driven_volatility",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Dominant admitted signals are geopolitical/infrastructure themes with late-surge temporal profiles; these can reverse rapidly on de-escalation headlines."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"rationale": "Some admitted themes have multi-day spans; while fresh evidence is present, older narrative persistence can exaggerate continuity assumptions."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"flag": "data_driver_coverage_gap",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Limited explicit signal coverage for storage levels, weather-driven demand, and EIA-style fundamentals in the admitted set; direction relies mainly on risk-premium logic."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh geopolitical/infrastructure disruption signals persist without credible de-escalation counterevidence in the next 6\u201312 hours."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If additional late-surge geopolitical headlines arrive (especially within a 2-hour window), increasing gap/reversal risk."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent de-escalation / supply-restoration signals appear within 2 hours, raising contradiction and reducing net bullish pressure."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 39,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 48,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 1,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 10,
"trends_admitted": 4,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Admitted signals concentrated in energy-geopolitics / infrastructure disruption themes; limited explicit fundamentals (weather, storage) in admitted set.",
"No explicit counterevidence objects or contradiction records were present in the provided 5B payload; reversal risk is therefore volatility-based rather than counterevidence-based.",
"Timeseries buckets are conservative approximations based on available trend temporal profiles (peak buckets / late-surge descriptors) due to missing per-record timestamp granularity in the gated input."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}