Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: supply_demand_crosscurrents
  • generated_at: 2026-04-15T18:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium LITH-1 Over the next 24h, the lithium futures narrative flow is net-supportive (demand-side EV adoption + battery capacity expansion headlines dominate the corpus). 62 up accelerating 24h false 58
lithium LITH-2 Supply-side themes (DLE technology progress and producer/project development) raise the odds of upside being capped and increase pullback risk within 24h if price-sensitive participants emphasise future supply. 49 mixed stable 24h false 58
lithium LITH-3 Over the next 6h, sentiment remains positive but is headline-driven; if the news cadence slows, conviction drops quickly (range-like behaviour risk). 56 up fading 6h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-LITHIUM-20260415T180000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-15T18:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "LITH-1",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, the lithium futures narrative flow is net-supportive (demand-side EV adoption + battery capacity expansion headlines dominate the corpus).",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "EV adoption trendflow (BYD / CPCA / OEM demand narrative)",
 "Battery manufacturing capacity expansion (CATL and broader supply chain build-out)",
 "Energy transition thematic reinforcement (broad multi-source coverage)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "LITH-2"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "LITH-2",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Supply-side themes (DLE technology progress and producer/project development) raise the odds of upside being capped and increase pullback risk within 24h if price-sensitive participants emphasise future supply.",
 "probability_pct": 49,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) breakthrough narrative",
 "Producer / project development and regulatory approvals (Chile / project pipeline headlines)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "LITH-1"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "LITH-3",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Over the next 6h, sentiment remains positive but is headline-driven; if the news cadence slows, conviction drops quickly (range-like behaviour risk).",
 "probability_pct": 56,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Recent cluster of same-day evidence updates across multiple lithium-adjacent trends",
 "Low observed explicit counter-headlines (few direct bearish records surfaced in admitted set)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "LITH-1",
 "LITH-3"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 119,
 "B": 21,
 "C": 15,
 "D": 174,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "evidence_events_count_proxy": 18,
 "events_0_6h_proxy": 7,
 "events_6_24h_proxy": 11,
 "events_24_72h_proxy": 0,
 "events_gt_72h_proxy": 0,
 "notes": [
 "Freshness mix computed from available per-trend source_ref_sample timestamps and VIP singleton timestamps; full per-record timestamp distribution not available in this baton."
 ]
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "supply_demand_crosscurrents",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Demand-positive EV/battery build-out themes coexist with supply-unlocking narratives (DLE/producers), raising chop/range risk."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_to_price_link_gap",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Admitted corpus is largely thematic/industry; limited direct price/tightness evidence surfaced in the admitted set."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_tier_weight_overhang",
 "severity": "low",
 "note": "Several admitted trends include substantial Tier-D share, though Tier-A confirmation is present."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh bullish headline cadence persists over the next 6h without a matching supply-side acceleration, maintain long-bias watch."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If supply-side headlines (DLE/producer ramp/approvals) spike in the next 6\u201312h, upgrade to reversal_watch due to crosscurrents."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If hourly evidence flow drops to near-zero while earlier conviction was elevated, treat as volatility_watch (headline-driven fragility)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T20:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": -25,
 "acceleration_score": -25,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T21:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 25,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T22:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "acceleration_score": 25,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T22:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T00:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": -25,
 "acceleration_score": -25,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T00:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T01:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T02:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T04:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 50,
 "acceleration_score": 75,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -50,
 "acceleration_score": -100,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 50,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 75,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 75,
 "velocity_score": 75,
 "acceleration_score": 75,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": -50,
 "acceleration_score": -125,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": -25,
 "acceleration_score": 25,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 50,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 85,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 85,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 85,
 "velocity_score": 35,
 "acceleration_score": 35,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": -60,
 "acceleration_score": -95,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -25,
 "acceleration_score": 35,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 50,
 "acceleration_score": 75,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": -25,
 "acceleration_score": -75,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 85,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 25,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 8,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit contradiction objects were provided; counterevidence is treated as thematic cross-current (supply-unlocking narratives) rather than direct bearish record flow.",
 "Timeseries evidence counts are conservative proxies derived from available per-trend source_ref_sample timestamps and VIP singleton timestamps; full per-record timestamp histograms were not present in the baton."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}