Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: supply_demand_crosscurrents
- generated_at: 2026-04-15T18:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| lithium |
LITH-1 |
Over the next 24h, the lithium futures narrative flow is net-supportive (demand-side EV adoption + battery capacity expansion headlines dominate the corpus). |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
58 |
| lithium |
LITH-2 |
Supply-side themes (DLE technology progress and producer/project development) raise the odds of upside being capped and increase pullback risk within 24h if price-sensitive participants emphasise future supply. |
49 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
58 |
| lithium |
LITH-3 |
Over the next 6h, sentiment remains positive but is headline-driven; if the news cadence slows, conviction drops quickly (range-like behaviour risk). |
56 |
up |
fading |
6h |
false |
58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-LITHIUM-20260415T180000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-15T18:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "LITH-1",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, the lithium futures narrative flow is net-supportive (demand-side EV adoption + battery capacity expansion headlines dominate the corpus).",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"EV adoption trendflow (BYD / CPCA / OEM demand narrative)",
"Battery manufacturing capacity expansion (CATL and broader supply chain build-out)",
"Energy transition thematic reinforcement (broad multi-source coverage)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"LITH-2"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "LITH-2",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Supply-side themes (DLE technology progress and producer/project development) raise the odds of upside being capped and increase pullback risk within 24h if price-sensitive participants emphasise future supply.",
"probability_pct": 49,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) breakthrough narrative",
"Producer / project development and regulatory approvals (Chile / project pipeline headlines)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"LITH-1"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "LITH-3",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Over the next 6h, sentiment remains positive but is headline-driven; if the news cadence slows, conviction drops quickly (range-like behaviour risk).",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Recent cluster of same-day evidence updates across multiple lithium-adjacent trends",
"Low observed explicit counter-headlines (few direct bearish records surfaced in admitted set)"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"LITH-1",
"LITH-3"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 119,
"B": 21,
"C": 15,
"D": 174,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"evidence_events_count_proxy": 18,
"events_0_6h_proxy": 7,
"events_6_24h_proxy": 11,
"events_24_72h_proxy": 0,
"events_gt_72h_proxy": 0,
"notes": [
"Freshness mix computed from available per-trend source_ref_sample timestamps and VIP singleton timestamps; full per-record timestamp distribution not available in this baton."
]
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "supply_demand_crosscurrents",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Demand-positive EV/battery build-out themes coexist with supply-unlocking narratives (DLE/producers), raising chop/range risk."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_to_price_link_gap",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Admitted corpus is largely thematic/industry; limited direct price/tightness evidence surfaced in the admitted set."
},
{
"flag": "low_tier_weight_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"note": "Several admitted trends include substantial Tier-D share, though Tier-A confirmation is present."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh bullish headline cadence persists over the next 6h without a matching supply-side acceleration, maintain long-bias watch."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If supply-side headlines (DLE/producer ramp/approvals) spike in the next 6\u201312h, upgrade to reversal_watch due to crosscurrents."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If hourly evidence flow drops to near-zero while earlier conviction was elevated, treat as volatility_watch (headline-driven fragility)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -25,
"acceleration_score": -25,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 25,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 25,
"acceleration_score": 25,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -25,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T00:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": -25,
"acceleration_score": -25,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T00:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 25,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T01:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
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"acceleration_score": 25,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T03:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -25,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -25,
"acceleration_score": -25,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 50,
"acceleration_score": 75,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -50,
"acceleration_score": -100,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 50,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 75,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 75,
"velocity_score": 75,
"acceleration_score": 75,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -50,
"acceleration_score": -125,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -25,
"acceleration_score": 25,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 50,
"acceleration_score": 75,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -50,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 85,
"bullish_pressure_score": 85,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 85,
"velocity_score": 35,
"acceleration_score": 35,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -60,
"acceleration_score": -95,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -25,
"acceleration_score": 35,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 50,
"acceleration_score": 75,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -25,
"acceleration_score": -75,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 85,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 25,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 8,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit contradiction objects were provided; counterevidence is treated as thematic cross-current (supply-unlocking narratives) rather than direct bearish record flow.",
"Timeseries evidence counts are conservative proxies derived from available per-trend source_ref_sample timestamps and VIP singleton timestamps; full per-record timestamp histograms were not present in the baton."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}