Snapshot
- subject_area: Gold futures
- target_market_code: gold
- ticker: gold
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: RF-STALE_CONTEXT_OVERHANG (high)
- generated_at: 2026-04-15T08:30:00Z
- sentiment_word: Unstable
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| gold | B-GOLD-001 | Gold futures face a weak/fragile bid from residual risk-premium and market-disruption narratives, but the signal is not reinforced by fresh (<=72h) evidence in the admitted corpus. | 53 | mixed | fading | 24h | false | 72 |
| gold | B-GOLD-002 | Directional conviction for gold is suppressed because most supportive macro/geopolitical items in the admitted set are stale relative to the requested 6h/24h horizons. | 67 | flat | stable | 6h | false | 72 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-gold-20260415T083000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-15T08:30:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Gold futures",
"market_code": "gold"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 32,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "gold",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-GOLD-001",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Gold futures face a weak/fragile bid from residual risk-premium and market-disruption narratives, but the signal is not reinforced by fresh (<=72h) evidence in the admitted corpus.",
"probability_pct": 53,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_risk",
"etf_investment_flows",
"physical_gold_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 38,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 30,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-GOLD-002",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Directional conviction for gold is suppressed because most supportive macro/geopolitical items in the admitted set are stale relative to the requested 6h/24h horizons.",
"probability_pct": 67,
"direction": "flat",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"real_rates",
"usd_strength",
"central_bank_flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 35,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "gold",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 41,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 32,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low",
"freshness_confidence": "low",
"catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-GOLD-001",
"B-GOLD-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 3,
"B": 0,
"C": 0,
"D": 1,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 0,
"fresh_6_24h": 1,
"stale_24_72h": 0,
"stale_gt_72h": 4
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-STALE_CONTEXT_OVERHANG",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "high",
"details": "Most admitted gold-relevant narratives are >72h old (many are early March 2026) versus the requested 6h/24h horizons; stale suppression applied."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-DATA_SPARSITY_24H",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "high",
"details": "Very limited fresh evidence inside the last 24h bucket window; conviction capped and fragility elevated."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-NARRATIVE_WHIPSAW_RISK",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "With sparse fresh inputs, a small number of new high-trust items could flip directional state quickly."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "high",
"action_label": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain neutral bias while freshness_confidence remains low OR until >=3 independent fresh (<=72h) gold-directional items appear with consistent direction."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate to volatility watch if contradiction_ratio rises or if multiple fresh geopolitical/macro items cluster within <=6h."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Activate reversal watch if 2+ independent fresh records (<=2h) emerge that oppose the currently implied (weak) risk-premium support."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
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"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 88,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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{
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},
{
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T04:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T05:00:00Z",
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"velocity_score": 0,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 88,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 3,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": 9,
"acceleration_score": 9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 9,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 9,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 0,
"cross_domain_merges": 1,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": true,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly to gold; single-market scope enforced.",
"Gold-directional decision suppressed to neutral_mixed due to stale-dominant evidence versus requested 6h/24h horizons (many items dated 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09).",
"A small fresh seed-level risk item exists in the last 24h window, but it is not sufficiently specific to gold and is insufficient alone to lift conviction to directional bullish/bearish."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}