Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold futures
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker: gold
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: RF-STALE_CONTEXT_OVERHANG (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-15T08:30:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Unstable
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-GOLD-001 Gold futures face a weak/fragile bid from residual risk-premium and market-disruption narratives, but the signal is not reinforced by fresh (<=72h) evidence in the admitted corpus. 53 mixed fading 24h false 72
gold B-GOLD-002 Directional conviction for gold is suppressed because most supportive macro/geopolitical items in the admitted set are stale relative to the requested 6h/24h horizons. 67 flat stable 6h false 72

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-gold-20260415T083000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-15T08:30:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Gold futures",
 "market_code": "gold"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 32,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "gold",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-001",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Gold futures face a weak/fragile bid from residual risk-premium and market-disruption narratives, but the signal is not reinforced by fresh (<=72h) evidence in the admitted corpus.",
 "probability_pct": 53,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_risk",
 "etf_investment_flows",
 "physical_gold_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 38,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 30,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-002",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Directional conviction for gold is suppressed because most supportive macro/geopolitical items in the admitted set are stale relative to the requested 6h/24h horizons.",
 "probability_pct": 67,
 "direction": "flat",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "real_rates",
 "usd_strength",
 "central_bank_flows"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 35,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 41,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 32,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low",
 "freshness_confidence": "low",
 "catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-GOLD-001",
 "B-GOLD-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 3,
 "B": 0,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 1,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 0,
 "fresh_6_24h": 1,
 "stale_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_gt_72h": 4
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-STALE_CONTEXT_OVERHANG",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "details": "Most admitted gold-relevant narratives are >72h old (many are early March 2026) versus the requested 6h/24h horizons; stale suppression applied."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-DATA_SPARSITY_24H",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "details": "Very limited fresh evidence inside the last 24h bucket window; conviction capped and fragility elevated."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-NARRATIVE_WHIPSAW_RISK",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "With sparse fresh inputs, a small number of new high-trust items could flip directional state quickly."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action_label": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain neutral bias while freshness_confidence remains low OR until >=3 independent fresh (<=72h) gold-directional items appear with consistent direction."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate to volatility watch if contradiction_ratio rises or if multiple fresh geopolitical/macro items cluster within <=6h."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Activate reversal watch if 2+ independent fresh records (<=2h) emerge that oppose the currently implied (weak) risk-premium support."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 5,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 88,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T09:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T10:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T11:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T12:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 },
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 5,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 5,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 3,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": 9,
 "acceleration_score": 9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 9,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 9,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 0,
 "cross_domain_merges": 1,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": true,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly to gold; single-market scope enforced.",
 "Gold-directional decision suppressed to neutral_mixed due to stale-dominant evidence versus requested 6h/24h horizons (many items dated 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09).",
 "A small fresh seed-level risk item exists in the last 24h window, but it is not sufficiently specific to gold and is insufficient alone to lift conviction to directional bullish/bearish."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}