Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold futures
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker: gold
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: RF-BELOW-MIN-EVIDENCE
  • generated_at: 2026-04-15T00:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Unstable
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-GOLD-ETF-001 Gold ETF/derivatives activity suggests mild upward bias, but signal is stale and not corroborated by fresh evidence. 54 up fading 24h false 78
gold B-GOLD-SUPPLY-002 Supply-chain/traceability and trade-disruption narratives may add a small risk premium to gold, but the evidence is single-source and stale. 52 up fading 24h false 78

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-gold-20260415-000000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-15T00:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Gold futures",
 "market_code": "gold"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "gold",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-ETF-001",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Gold ETF/derivatives activity suggests mild upward bias, but signal is stale and not corroborated by fresh evidence.",
 "probability_pct": 54,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "etf_investment_flows"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "RF-DATA-SPARSITY",
 "RF-STALE-OVERHANG"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 34,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 15,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-SUPPLY-002",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Supply-chain/traceability and trade-disruption narratives may add a small risk premium to gold, but the evidence is single-source and stale.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "physical_gold_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "RF-BELOW-MIN-EVIDENCE",
 "RF-STALE-OVERHANG"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 30,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 10,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 28,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low",
 "freshness_confidence": "low",
 "catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-GOLD-ETF-001",
 "B-GOLD-SUPPLY-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 0,
 "B": 0,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 1,
 "U": 1
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 0,
 "fresh_6_24h": 0,
 "mid_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_gt_72h": 2
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-BELOW-MIN-EVIDENCE",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "description": "Mapped gold-specific evidence count is below the requested minimum threshold (min_evidence_threshold=3). Direction is suppressed to neutral/mixed."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-STALE-OVERHANG",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "description": "Most mapped evidence is older than 72 hours (stale). Stale suppression applied; momentum marked weakening."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-DATA-SPARSITY",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Very limited gold-mapped signals and low source diversity; increases fragility and reversal sensitivity to new information."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action_label": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "Remain in neutral posture while mapped gold evidence remains below threshold and freshness confidence stays low."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate watch if any fresh (<=24h) gold-specific drivers appear (real rates / USD / CB flows) that move directional_score_signed beyond +/-20."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal watch if fresh opposing evidence (<=6h) appears in 2+ independent records, raising contradiction materially from current near-zero mapped contradiction."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
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 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 0,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 }
}