Snapshot
- subject_area: Gold futures
- target_market_code: gold
- ticker: gold
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: RF-BELOW-MIN-EVIDENCE
- generated_at: 2026-04-15T00:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Unstable
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| gold |
B-GOLD-ETF-001 |
Gold ETF/derivatives activity suggests mild upward bias, but signal is stale and not corroborated by fresh evidence. |
54 |
up |
fading |
24h |
false |
78 |
| gold |
B-GOLD-SUPPLY-002 |
Supply-chain/traceability and trade-disruption narratives may add a small risk premium to gold, but the evidence is single-source and stale. |
52 |
up |
fading |
24h |
false |
78 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-gold-20260415-000000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-15T00:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Gold futures",
"market_code": "gold"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "gold",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-GOLD-ETF-001",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Gold ETF/derivatives activity suggests mild upward bias, but signal is stale and not corroborated by fresh evidence.",
"probability_pct": 54,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"etf_investment_flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"RF-DATA-SPARSITY",
"RF-STALE-OVERHANG"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 34,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 15,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-GOLD-SUPPLY-002",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Supply-chain/traceability and trade-disruption narratives may add a small risk premium to gold, but the evidence is single-source and stale.",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"physical_gold_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"RF-BELOW-MIN-EVIDENCE",
"RF-STALE-OVERHANG"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 30,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 10,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "gold",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 28,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low",
"freshness_confidence": "low",
"catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-GOLD-ETF-001",
"B-GOLD-SUPPLY-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 0,
"B": 0,
"C": 0,
"D": 1,
"U": 1
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 0,
"fresh_6_24h": 0,
"mid_24_72h": 0,
"stale_gt_72h": 2
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-BELOW-MIN-EVIDENCE",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "high",
"description": "Mapped gold-specific evidence count is below the requested minimum threshold (min_evidence_threshold=3). Direction is suppressed to neutral/mixed."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-STALE-OVERHANG",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "high",
"description": "Most mapped evidence is older than 72 hours (stale). Stale suppression applied; momentum marked weakening."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-DATA-SPARSITY",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Very limited gold-mapped signals and low source diversity; increases fragility and reversal sensitivity to new information."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "high",
"action_label": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "Remain in neutral posture while mapped gold evidence remains below threshold and freshness confidence stays low."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate watch if any fresh (<=24h) gold-specific drivers appear (real rates / USD / CB flows) that move directional_score_signed beyond +/-20."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal watch if fresh opposing evidence (<=6h) appears in 2+ independent records, raising contradiction materially from current near-zero mapped contradiction."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
"latest_inflection_strength": 0,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
}
}
}