Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures (HG)
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: copper
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: authority_mix_skew_low_tier
  • generated_at: 2026-04-15 23:01 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B1 Near-term copper futures sentiment skews upward as electrification / grid / EV infrastructure narratives are receiving fresh, broad reinforcement. 62 up accelerating 24h false 46
copper B2 Supply-side disruption/risk signals (regulatory restrictions, labour action/strike risk, operational constraints) create upside tail-risk pressure for copper over the next 6–24 hours. 58 up stable 6h false 46
copper B3 Trade-policy headlines remain a volatility amplifier for copper; sentiment impact can flip quickly even without strong opposing evidence currently present in-corpus. 55 mixed stable 6h false 46

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_copper_2026-04-15T23:01:58Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-15T23:01:58Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures (HG)",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Near-term copper futures sentiment skews upward as electrification / grid / EV infrastructure narratives are receiving fresh, broad reinforcement.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_transition_demand",
 "industrial_demand",
 "inventory_exchange_stocks (indirect)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Supply-side disruption/risk signals (regulatory restrictions, labour action/strike risk, operational constraints) create upside tail-risk pressure for copper over the next 6\u201324 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply_disruption",
 "trade_policy (secondary via supply chain friction)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 69,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Trade-policy headlines remain a volatility amplifier for copper; sentiment impact can flip quickly even without strong opposing evidence currently present in-corpus.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "trade_policy",
 "china_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 57,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1",
 "B2",
 "B3"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 60,
 "B": 14,
 "C": 6,
 "D": 140,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_est": 6,
 "fresh_6_24h_est": 16,
 "stale_gt_24h_est": 120
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "authority_mix_skew_low_tier",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "copper",
 "note": "Directional mass is broad, but a sizeable share of supporting items are Tier-D/low-authority domains; this increases fragility without constituting true counter-evidence."
 },
 {
 "flag": "policy_headline_volatility_trade_policy",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "copper",
 "note": "Trade-policy narrative density is elevated; headline-driven whipsaw risk remains."
 },
 {
 "flag": "event_risk_supply_disruption",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "copper",
 "note": "Regulatory and labour-action risk items imply asymmetric upside tail risk (supply tightness shocks)."
 },
 {
 "flag": "seed_level_anomalies_unmaterialised",
 "severity": "low",
 "market": "copper",
 "note": "Some late items are seed-level (evidence not materialised), so they are treated as weak-support until corroborated."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish watch while fresh reinforcement persists and no fresh opposing evidence cluster appears."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if trade-policy headlines accelerate (freshness spike) or if contradiction ratio rises materially."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Upgrade to reversal watch only if 2+ independent fresh bearish-demand signals arrive within a 2-hour window (kill-switch criteria)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 17,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 31,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T01:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
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 "acceleration_score": 1,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 31,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": -1,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T05:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T05:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T06:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 4,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 18,
 "acceleration_score": 16,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -20,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 9,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 49,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 49,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 56,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 11,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 54,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 11,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 11,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 11,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 56,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 8,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to 'copper'; analysis constrained to single market.",
 "No explicit contradictory/bearish copper signals were provided in the admitted corpus (contradictions array empty); reversal risk therefore driven mainly by structural headline-volatility risk rather than observed counterevidence.",
 "Some freshest risk anomalies are seed-level with unmaterialised evidence; treated as weak-support and excluded from timeseries if outside bucket window.",
 "State-change set to 'unchanged' due to missing prior state memory in input (unknown_prior fallback)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}