Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures (HG)
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: copper
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: authority_mix_skew_low_tier
- generated_at: 2026-04-15 23:01 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| copper | B1 | Near-term copper futures sentiment skews upward as electrification / grid / EV infrastructure narratives are receiving fresh, broad reinforcement. | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 46 |
| copper | B2 | Supply-side disruption/risk signals (regulatory restrictions, labour action/strike risk, operational constraints) create upside tail-risk pressure for copper over the next 6–24 hours. | 58 | up | stable | 6h | false | 46 |
| copper | B3 | Trade-policy headlines remain a volatility amplifier for copper; sentiment impact can flip quickly even without strong opposing evidence currently present in-corpus. | 55 | mixed | stable | 6h | false | 46 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_copper_2026-04-15T23:01:58Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-15T23:01:58Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures (HG)",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Near-term copper futures sentiment skews upward as electrification / grid / EV infrastructure narratives are receiving fresh, broad reinforcement.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"energy_transition_demand",
"industrial_demand",
"inventory_exchange_stocks (indirect)"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B2",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Supply-side disruption/risk signals (regulatory restrictions, labour action/strike risk, operational constraints) create upside tail-risk pressure for copper over the next 6\u201324 hours.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply_disruption",
"trade_policy (secondary via supply chain friction)"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 69,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B3",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Trade-policy headlines remain a volatility amplifier for copper; sentiment impact can flip quickly even without strong opposing evidence currently present in-corpus.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"trade_policy",
"china_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 57,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1",
"B2",
"B3"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 60,
"B": 14,
"C": 6,
"D": 140,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_est": 6,
"fresh_6_24h_est": 16,
"stale_gt_24h_est": 120
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "authority_mix_skew_low_tier",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "copper",
"note": "Directional mass is broad, but a sizeable share of supporting items are Tier-D/low-authority domains; this increases fragility without constituting true counter-evidence."
},
{
"flag": "policy_headline_volatility_trade_policy",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "copper",
"note": "Trade-policy narrative density is elevated; headline-driven whipsaw risk remains."
},
{
"flag": "event_risk_supply_disruption",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "copper",
"note": "Regulatory and labour-action risk items imply asymmetric upside tail risk (supply tightness shocks)."
},
{
"flag": "seed_level_anomalies_unmaterialised",
"severity": "low",
"market": "copper",
"note": "Some late items are seed-level (evidence not materialised), so they are treated as weak-support until corroborated."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish watch while fresh reinforcement persists and no fresh opposing evidence cluster appears."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if trade-policy headlines accelerate (freshness spike) or if contradiction ratio rises materially."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Upgrade to reversal watch only if 2+ independent fresh bearish-demand signals arrive within a 2-hour window (kill-switch criteria)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 17,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 31,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 17,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 31,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 18,
"acceleration_score": 16,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 9,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 49,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 49,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 56,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 56,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 11,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 11,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 11,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 11,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 56,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 8,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to 'copper'; analysis constrained to single market.",
"No explicit contradictory/bearish copper signals were provided in the admitted corpus (contradictions array empty); reversal risk therefore driven mainly by structural headline-volatility risk rather than observed counterevidence.",
"Some freshest risk anomalies are seed-level with unmaterialised evidence; treated as weak-support and excluded from timeseries if outside bucket window.",
"State-change set to 'unchanged' due to missing prior state memory in input (unknown_prior fallback)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}