Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: ""
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw_risk (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-15 12:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-copper-001-6h Copper futures have an upward bias over the next 6h, driven by fresh demand-side electrification/grid/EV infrastructure narratives plus near-term supply-side... 62 up accelerating 6h false 38
copper B-copper-002-24h Copper futures are more likely than not to remain bid over the next 24h as demand-growth narratives remain fresh and supply-disruption risk remains active. 66 up stable 24h false 38

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-copper-2026-04-15T12:00:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-15T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-001-6h",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Copper futures have an upward bias over the next 6h, driven by fresh, broad demand-side electrification/grid/EV infrastructure narratives plus near-term supply-side disruption risk.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy transition / electrification demand (grid modernisation, EV infrastructure)",
 "China policy / industrial policy support signals",
 "mine supply disruption / regulatory constraint signals (Chile/Codelco) supporting tighter supply expectations",
 "inventory/exchange stock sensitivity implied by repeated market-structure coverage"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Trade policy uncertainty can flip risk sentiment quickly (headline-driven), even without explicit bearish copper evidence in the admitted set."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-002-24h",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Copper futures are more likely than not to remain bid over the next 24h as demand-growth narratives remain fresh and supply-disruption risk remains active.",
 "probability_pct": 66,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "persistent multi-source electrification demand thesis with fresh confirmations",
 "supply-side disruption and compliance/regulatory constraint narratives (Chile; mine operations) keeping downside limited"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Potential negative growth/industrial-production surprise risk (not evidenced as an opposing signal inside this admitted set, but a regime risk).",
 "Escalation in trade restrictions could dampen near-term risk appetite (headline-sensitive)."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-copper-001-6h",
 "B-copper-002-24h"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 78,
 "B": 10,
 "C": 3,
 "D": 156,
 "U": 0,
 "note": "Approximate roll-up across admitted trend-level authority tier counts; may double-count overlapping records."
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_evidence_window_hours": 24,
 "fresh_evidence_count_est": 14,
 "stale_evidence_count_est": 6,
 "freshness_notes": [
 "Multiple admitted trends show newest evidence timestamps on 2026-04-14 to 2026-04-15 (UTC), indicating fresh confirmation.",
 "Several trends span >7 days, but freshness dominance is still high due to repeated recent updates."
 ]
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "level": "medium",
 "note": "Trade-policy themed coverage is present and can cause fast sentiment shifts even when the core electrification thesis remains intact."
 },
 {
 "flag": "background_persistent_overhang",
 "level": "low",
 "note": "Several supporting narratives are slow-burn and multi-week; however, fresh confirmations reduce stale-dominance risk."
 },
 {
 "flag": "timeseries_precision_degraded",
 "level": "medium",
 "note": "Hourly timeseries below is an approximation derived from trend-level recency/heat metadata and limited timestamp samples, not full per-record timestamp distributions."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias unless fresh, independent opposing copper-demand evidence appears (e.g., clear negative industrial production shock / demand destruction) within the next 6\u201312 hours."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If trade-policy headlines intensify (tariff/export-control escalation), expect short-horizon volatility despite a bullish baseline."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate to reversal watch only if 2+ independent fresh signals (<2h) indicate demand contraction or rapid easing of supply constraints."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 39,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 39,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 39,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 39,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 47,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 47,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ],
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 50,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 3,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 4,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly as 'copper'; scope constrained to single-market.",
 "No explicit contradictory/counter-direction copper price signals were present in the admitted trend/VIP/risk set; reversal risk remains low.",
 "State-change marked 'unchanged' because no prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory was provided to compare against (unknown_prior).",
 "Timeseries is conservative/shape-based due to limited per-record timestamp visibility in the provided payload."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}