Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: ""
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw_risk (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-15 12:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| copper |
B-copper-001-6h |
Copper futures have an upward bias over the next 6h, driven by fresh demand-side electrification/grid/EV infrastructure narratives plus near-term supply-side... |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
38 |
| copper |
B-copper-002-24h |
Copper futures are more likely than not to remain bid over the next 24h as demand-growth narratives remain fresh and supply-disruption risk remains active. |
66 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
38 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-copper-2026-04-15T12:00:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-15T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 38,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-001-6h",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Copper futures have an upward bias over the next 6h, driven by fresh, broad demand-side electrification/grid/EV infrastructure narratives plus near-term supply-side disruption risk.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"energy transition / electrification demand (grid modernisation, EV infrastructure)",
"China policy / industrial policy support signals",
"mine supply disruption / regulatory constraint signals (Chile/Codelco) supporting tighter supply expectations",
"inventory/exchange stock sensitivity implied by repeated market-structure coverage"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Trade policy uncertainty can flip risk sentiment quickly (headline-driven), even without explicit bearish copper evidence in the admitted set."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-002-24h",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Copper futures are more likely than not to remain bid over the next 24h as demand-growth narratives remain fresh and supply-disruption risk remains active.",
"probability_pct": 66,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"persistent multi-source electrification demand thesis with fresh confirmations",
"supply-side disruption and compliance/regulatory constraint narratives (Chile; mine operations) keeping downside limited"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Potential negative growth/industrial-production surprise risk (not evidenced as an opposing signal inside this admitted set, but a regime risk).",
"Escalation in trade restrictions could dampen near-term risk appetite (headline-sensitive)."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 38,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-copper-001-6h",
"B-copper-002-24h"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 78,
"B": 10,
"C": 3,
"D": 156,
"U": 0,
"note": "Approximate roll-up across admitted trend-level authority tier counts; may double-count overlapping records."
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_evidence_window_hours": 24,
"fresh_evidence_count_est": 14,
"stale_evidence_count_est": 6,
"freshness_notes": [
"Multiple admitted trends show newest evidence timestamps on 2026-04-14 to 2026-04-15 (UTC), indicating fresh confirmation.",
"Several trends span >7 days, but freshness dominance is still high due to repeated recent updates."
]
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"level": "medium",
"note": "Trade-policy themed coverage is present and can cause fast sentiment shifts even when the core electrification thesis remains intact."
},
{
"flag": "background_persistent_overhang",
"level": "low",
"note": "Several supporting narratives are slow-burn and multi-week; however, fresh confirmations reduce stale-dominance risk."
},
{
"flag": "timeseries_precision_degraded",
"level": "medium",
"note": "Hourly timeseries below is an approximation derived from trend-level recency/heat metadata and limited timestamp samples, not full per-record timestamp distributions."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias unless fresh, independent opposing copper-demand evidence appears (e.g., clear negative industrial production shock / demand destruction) within the next 6\u201312 hours."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If trade-policy headlines intensify (tariff/export-control escalation), expect short-horizon volatility despite a bullish baseline."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate to reversal watch only if 2+ independent fresh signals (<2h) indicate demand contraction or rapid easing of supply constraints."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 39,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 39,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 39,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 47,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 47,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 38,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 38,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
],
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 50,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 3,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 4,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly as 'copper'; scope constrained to single-market.",
"No explicit contradictory/counter-direction copper price signals were present in the admitted trend/VIP/risk set; reversal risk remains low.",
"State-change marked 'unchanged' because no prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory was provided to compare against (unknown_prior).",
"Timeseries is conservative/shape-based due to limited per-record timestamp visibility in the provided payload."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}