Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-coffee-geo-ship-001 (narrative_whipsaw, medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-15T21:10:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-001 Near-term upside pressure persists as supply-chain/logistics frictions and input-cost inflation keep the perceived supply curve tight for coffee. 62 up accelerating 24h false 44
coffee B-coffee-002 Crop health / disease risk remains a supportive tail risk for prices (adds volatility and skew to the upside even if not fully realised in supply data yet). 55 up stable 24h false 44
coffee B-coffee-003 Demand-side signals are mixed: specialty/RTD expansion supports consumption, but some consumer-preference narratives introduce two-sided risk that can cap rallies intraday. 60 mixed fading 6h false 44

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260415T211000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-15T21:10:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Near-term upside pressure persists as supply-chain/logistics frictions and input-cost inflation keep the perceived supply curve tight for coffee.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight",
 "origin_supply",
 "labour_costs"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Any fresh evidence of easing freight/port congestion or improved export flow from key origins within the last 6\u201324h"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Crop health / disease risk remains a supportive tail risk for prices (adds volatility and skew to the upside even if not fully realised in supply data yet).",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "crop_conditions_disease",
 "weather_disruptions"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Fresh, credible agronomic updates indicating contained disease/pest pressure or improving field conditions"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-003",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Demand-side signals are mixed: specialty/RTD expansion supports consumption, but some consumer-preference narratives introduce two-sided risk that can cap rallies intraday.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "consumption_trends"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Broad, fresh confirmation that consumption is strengthening across multiple regions/channels OR clear evidence of demand contraction"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 80,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-001",
 "B-coffee-002",
 "B-coffee-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 18,
 "B": 1,
 "C": 3,
 "D": 33,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_evidence_dominance": "moderate_to_high",
 "fresh_window_0_6h": "present",
 "fresh_window_6_24h": "present",
 "stale_overhang_gt_72h": "present_but_not_dominant"
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-coffee-geo-ship-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "type": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Coffee signal is highly sensitive to geopolitics/logistics headlines; sharp narrative shifts can move sentiment faster than fundamentals."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-coffee-source-mix-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "type": "echo_concentration_watch",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Authority mix includes a meaningful low-tier share; conviction is primarily mass-consensus driven and should be watched for fast contradictory updates."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-coffee-demand-mix-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "type": "contradiction_spike_watch",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Demand-side narratives are mixed/low-amplitude; if fresh demand weakness clusters, reversal risk can rise quickly."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-coffee-timeseries-proxy-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "type": "data_sparsity",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Timeseries buckets are inferred from trend-level recency proxies (not full per-record timestamps). Treat bucket micro-shape as approximate."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh logistics/input-cost/crop-risk signals persist over the next 6\u201324h with no material opposing cluster."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If shipping/geopolitical headlines accelerate and contradiction_ratio rises above ~0.25 in the next cycle."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh evidence indicates easing freight constraints and/or improved crop outlooks, pushing net directional score toward neutral (+20 threshold)."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradictory clusters arrive inside a 2h window and thesis_kill_switch becomes true (late-breaking invalidation)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 77,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 58,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 3,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=coffee.",
 "Prior state unavailable (no trend_state_memory / prior market_state_table supplied); state_change set to 'unchanged' as a neutral default.",
 "No explicit contradiction records were provided in the admitted trend set; reversal_risk set to 'medium' due to mixed demand narratives and headline-driven logistics/geopolitical sensitivity.",
 "Timeseries constructed using trend-level recency/shape proxies (temporal_profile + newest/oldest proxies), not full per-record timestamp allocation."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}