Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-coffee-geo-ship-001 (narrative_whipsaw, medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-15T21:10:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B-coffee-001 |
Near-term upside pressure persists as supply-chain/logistics frictions and input-cost inflation keep the perceived supply curve tight for coffee. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
44 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-002 |
Crop health / disease risk remains a supportive tail risk for prices (adds volatility and skew to the upside even if not fully realised in supply data yet). |
55 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
44 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-003 |
Demand-side signals are mixed: specialty/RTD expansion supports consumption, but some consumer-preference narratives introduce two-sided risk that can cap rallies intraday. |
60 |
mixed |
fading |
6h |
false |
44 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260415T211000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-15T21:10:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term upside pressure persists as supply-chain/logistics frictions and input-cost inflation keep the perceived supply curve tight for coffee.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"origin_supply",
"labour_costs"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Any fresh evidence of easing freight/port congestion or improved export flow from key origins within the last 6\u201324h"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Crop health / disease risk remains a supportive tail risk for prices (adds volatility and skew to the upside even if not fully realised in supply data yet).",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"crop_conditions_disease",
"weather_disruptions"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Fresh, credible agronomic updates indicating contained disease/pest pressure or improving field conditions"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-003",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Demand-side signals are mixed: specialty/RTD expansion supports consumption, but some consumer-preference narratives introduce two-sided risk that can cap rallies intraday.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"consumption_trends"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Broad, fresh confirmation that consumption is strengthening across multiple regions/channels OR clear evidence of demand contraction"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 80,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-001",
"B-coffee-002",
"B-coffee-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 18,
"B": 1,
"C": 3,
"D": 33,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_evidence_dominance": "moderate_to_high",
"fresh_window_0_6h": "present",
"fresh_window_6_24h": "present",
"stale_overhang_gt_72h": "present_but_not_dominant"
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "RF-coffee-geo-ship-001",
"market": "coffee",
"type": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Coffee signal is highly sensitive to geopolitics/logistics headlines; sharp narrative shifts can move sentiment faster than fundamentals."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-coffee-source-mix-001",
"market": "coffee",
"type": "echo_concentration_watch",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Authority mix includes a meaningful low-tier share; conviction is primarily mass-consensus driven and should be watched for fast contradictory updates."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-coffee-demand-mix-001",
"market": "coffee",
"type": "contradiction_spike_watch",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Demand-side narratives are mixed/low-amplitude; if fresh demand weakness clusters, reversal risk can rise quickly."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-coffee-timeseries-proxy-001",
"market": "coffee",
"type": "data_sparsity",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Timeseries buckets are inferred from trend-level recency proxies (not full per-record timestamps). Treat bucket micro-shape as approximate."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh logistics/input-cost/crop-risk signals persist over the next 6\u201324h with no material opposing cluster."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If shipping/geopolitical headlines accelerate and contradiction_ratio rises above ~0.25 in the next cycle."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh evidence indicates easing freight constraints and/or improved crop outlooks, pushing net directional score toward neutral (+20 threshold)."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If contradictory clusters arrive inside a 2h window and thesis_kill_switch becomes true (late-breaking invalidation)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 77,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 58,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 3,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=coffee.",
"Prior state unavailable (no trend_state_memory / prior market_state_table supplied); state_change set to 'unchanged' as a neutral default.",
"No explicit contradiction records were provided in the admitted trend set; reversal_risk set to 'medium' due to mixed demand narratives and headline-driven logistics/geopolitical sensitivity.",
"Timeseries constructed using trend-level recency/shape proxies (temporal_profile + newest/oldest proxies), not full per-record timestamp allocation."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}