Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: coffee
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: momentum_cooling_after_spike
- generated_at: 2026-04-15 12:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coffee | B1_supplychain_cost_up | Freight/logistics disruption narratives plus elevated agricultural input/labour cost themes are keeping an upside risk-premium embedded in coffee futures over the next 6–24h. | 66 | up | stable | 24h | false | 47 |
| coffee | B2_weather_risk_premium | Climate/weather-disruption risk signalling (incl. El Niño-style impact framing) is supporting a modest weather risk-premium for coffee. | 58 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 47 |
| coffee | B3_offsetting_easing_caps | Scattered capacity/exports/sector-upgrade signals imply some offsetting easing forces, increasing the odds of sideways-to-choppy consolidation rather than clean continuation higher. | 44 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 47 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B_coffee_20260415T120000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-15T12:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Coffee futures", "market_code": "coffee" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 47, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "coffee", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "coffee" ], "regime_state": "loosening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B1_supplychain_cost_up", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Freight/logistics disruption narratives plus elevated agricultural input/labour cost themes are keeping an upside risk-premium embedded in coffee futures over the next 6\u201324h.", "probability_pct": 66, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "shipping_freight", "origin_supply", "labour_costs", "supply_chain_disruption" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B3_offsetting_easing_caps" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B2_weather_risk_premium", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Climate/weather-disruption risk signalling (incl. El Ni\u00f1o-style impact framing) is supporting a modest weather risk-premium for coffee.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "weather_disruptions", "crop_conditions_disease" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Single-source concentration on parts of the weather-risk lane reduces reliability" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 38, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" }, { "belief_id": "B3_offsetting_easing_caps", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Scattered capacity/exports/sector-upgrade signals imply some offsetting easing forces, increasing the odds of sideways-to-choppy consolidation rather than clean continuation higher.", "probability_pct": 44, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "origin_supply", "shipping_freight" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B1_supplychain_cost_up", "B2_weather_risk_premium" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 35, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "coffee", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 72, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 47, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B1_supplychain_cost_up", "B2_weather_risk_premium", "B3_offsetting_easing_caps" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 42, "B": 2, "C": 4, "D": 86, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h": 18, "fresh_6_24h": 34, "fresh_24_72h": 8, "stale_gt72h": 0 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "market": "coffee", "flag": "momentum_cooling_after_spike", "severity": "medium", "rationale": "Signal-timeseries shows a sharp bullish burst followed by drift lower into the snapshot; upside thesis remains, but is less impulsive in the most recent hours." }, { "market": "coffee", "flag": "single_source_outliers_present", "severity": "medium", "rationale": "Multiple VIP/risk-anomaly lanes are single-domain (echo-risk flagged), which can exaggerate perceived catalysts without broad confirmation." }, { "market": "coffee", "flag": "cross_market_geopolitics_mapping_risk", "severity": "low", "rationale": "Part of the admitted corpus is broad geopolitics/logistics; relevance to coffee is plausible but indirect, raising mapping/overfit risk." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "coffee", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) multi-source confirmation of logistics constraints/input-cost pressure appears again and directional_score_signed re-accelerates upward." }, { "market": "coffee", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If new, genuinely opposing evidence accumulates (e.g., export/arrival flow improvements) and directional_score_signed falls below +20 with rising contradiction." }, { "market": "coffee", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "If weather-risk lane produces another burst of fresh updates (<=6h) while supply-chain lanes remain active, raising short-horizon whipsaw risk." }, { "market": "coffee", "action": "stay_flat", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "If evidence flow drops and the timeseries compresses into a low-conviction, high-fragility rangebound regime." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "coffee" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 39, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 43, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 42, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 40, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 35, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 38, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 33, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 36, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 32, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 35, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 69, "bearish_pressure_score": 31, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 35, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 70, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 35, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 55, "bullish_pressure_score": 78, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 55, "velocity_score": 15, "acceleration_score": 13, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 8, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 35, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 58, "bullish_pressure_score": 79, "bearish_pressure_score": 21, "net_sentiment_score": 58, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": -12, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "fragility_score_0_100": 35, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 52, "bullish_pressure_score": 76, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 52, "velocity_score": -6, "acceleration_score": -9, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 69, "fragility_score_0_100": 35, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 74, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 35, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 73, "bearish_pressure_score": 27, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 35, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 50, "bullish_pressure_score": 75, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 50, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": 8, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "fragility_score_0_100": 35, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 54, "bullish_pressure_score": 77, "bearish_pressure_score": 23, "net_sentiment_score": 54, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 35, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 58, "bullish_pressure_score": 79, "bearish_pressure_score": 21, "net_sentiment_score": 58, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "fragility_score_0_100": 35, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 61, "bullish_pressure_score": 81, "bearish_pressure_score": 19, "net_sentiment_score": 61, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 7, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 74, "fragility_score_0_100": 35, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 60, "bullish_pressure_score": 80, "bearish_pressure_score": 20, "net_sentiment_score": 60, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 73, "fragility_score_0_100": 35, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 55, "bullish_pressure_score": 78, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 55, "velocity_score": -5, "acceleration_score": -4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 35, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 50, "bullish_pressure_score": 75, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 50, "velocity_score": -5, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "fragility_score_0_100": 35, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 74, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 35, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-15T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-15T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 46, "bullish_pressure_score": 73, "bearish_pressure_score": 27, "net_sentiment_score": 46, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 35, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 61, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 16, "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish" }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 10, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Prior state not provided via trend_state_memory; state_change set to 'unchanged' (unknown_prior).", "No explicit contradiction records supplied in input; contradiction_ratio held low and driven primarily by single-source concentration flags.", "Timeseries bucket values are conservative reconstructions from admitted-signal recency/heat rather than full per-record physics." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" } }