Snapshot

  • subject_area: Uranium futures
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw_risk
  • generated_at: 2026-04-14T22:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-URN-001 Near-term uranium futures bias is upward as nuclear policy and SMR/plant-build momentum strengthens expected reactor fuel demand expectations. 63 up accelerating 6h false 41
uranium B-URN-002 Medium-short horizon support remains constructive due to sustained attention on uranium mining/supply-chain developments and contracting narratives (supply discipline + demand visibility). 60 up stable 24h false 41
uranium B-URN-003 Downside/flat risk is mainly headline-driven (policy/regulatory timing and narrative whipsaw), rather than evidenced by fresh bearish fundamentals in the current admitted corpus. 37 mixed stable 24h false 41

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-uranium-20260414T220000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-14T22:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Uranium futures",
 "market_code": "uranium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 69,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "uranium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-URN-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Near-term uranium futures bias is upward as nuclear policy and SMR/plant-build momentum strengthens expected reactor fuel demand expectations.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "nuclear_policy",
 "reactor_demand",
 "nuclear_innovation",
 "energy_security"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-URN-002",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Medium-short horizon support remains constructive due to sustained attention on uranium mining/supply-chain developments and contracting narratives (supply discipline + demand visibility).",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "uranium_supply_contracting",
 "geopolitical_supply_risk",
 "reactor_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-URN-003",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Downside/flat risk is mainly headline-driven (policy/regulatory timing and narrative whipsaw), rather than evidenced by fresh bearish fundamentals in the current admitted corpus.",
 "probability_pct": 37,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "nuclear_policy",
 "regulatory_timing_risk",
 "sentiment_fragility"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 69,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-URN-001",
 "B-URN-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 85,
 "B": 6,
 "C": 13,
 "D": 156,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_count_proxy": 14,
 "fresh_6_24h_count_proxy": 21,
 "stale_over_72h_count_proxy": 9
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "uranium",
 "reason": "Direction is strongly supported by policy/SMR expansion narratives; these can reverse quickly on new regulatory/timeline headlines even without gradual fundamental counter-evidence."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_authority_share_overhang",
 "severity": "low",
 "market": "uranium",
 "reason": "Admitted corpus includes substantial lower-tier/domain-mixed coverage; authority confirmation is present but not dominant in all sub-trends."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias while hourly directional_score_signed remains >= +40 and contradiction_ratio stays <= 0.20 without fresh opposing evidence."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if a high-authority regulatory/policy headline lands and directional_score_signed drops by >= 25 within 2 hours."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Promote to reversal watch only if 2+ independent opposing signals appear within 2 hours OR contradiction_ratio rises above 0.35 with falling momentum."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 1,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 39,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 39,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 54,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 39,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 56,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 77,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 39,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 58,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -6,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 18,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 11,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly to 'uranium'; single-market scope enforced.",
 "No admitted contradictory record sets were provided (contradictions[] empty; trend contradiction_record_ids empty), so reversal_risk is driven by structural/narrative fragility only.",
 "state_change computed using fallback prior=unknown_prior -> assumed neutral baseline; therefore current bullish maps to 'new_bullish'."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}