Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw_risk
- generated_at: 2026-04-14T22:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| uranium | B-URN-001 | Near-term uranium futures bias is upward as nuclear policy and SMR/plant-build momentum strengthens expected reactor fuel demand expectations. | 63 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 41 |
| uranium | B-URN-002 | Medium-short horizon support remains constructive due to sustained attention on uranium mining/supply-chain developments and contracting narratives (supply discipline + demand visibility). | 60 | up | stable | 24h | false | 41 |
| uranium | B-URN-003 | Downside/flat risk is mainly headline-driven (policy/regulatory timing and narrative whipsaw), rather than evidenced by fresh bearish fundamentals in the current admitted corpus. | 37 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 41 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-uranium-20260414T220000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium futures",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 69,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-URN-001",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Near-term uranium futures bias is upward as nuclear policy and SMR/plant-build momentum strengthens expected reactor fuel demand expectations.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"nuclear_policy",
"reactor_demand",
"nuclear_innovation",
"energy_security"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-URN-002",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Medium-short horizon support remains constructive due to sustained attention on uranium mining/supply-chain developments and contracting narratives (supply discipline + demand visibility).",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"uranium_supply_contracting",
"geopolitical_supply_risk",
"reactor_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-URN-003",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Downside/flat risk is mainly headline-driven (policy/regulatory timing and narrative whipsaw), rather than evidenced by fresh bearish fundamentals in the current admitted corpus.",
"probability_pct": 37,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"nuclear_policy",
"regulatory_timing_risk",
"sentiment_fragility"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 69,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-URN-001",
"B-URN-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 85,
"B": 6,
"C": 13,
"D": 156,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_count_proxy": 14,
"fresh_6_24h_count_proxy": 21,
"stale_over_72h_count_proxy": 9
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "uranium",
"reason": "Direction is strongly supported by policy/SMR expansion narratives; these can reverse quickly on new regulatory/timeline headlines even without gradual fundamental counter-evidence."
},
{
"flag": "low_authority_share_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"market": "uranium",
"reason": "Admitted corpus includes substantial lower-tier/domain-mixed coverage; authority confirmation is present but not dominant in all sub-trends."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "high",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias while hourly directional_score_signed remains >= +40 and contradiction_ratio stays <= 0.20 without fresh opposing evidence."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if a high-authority regulatory/policy headline lands and directional_score_signed drops by >= 25 within 2 hours."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "low",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Promote to reversal watch only if 2+ independent opposing signals appear within 2 hours OR contradiction_ratio rises above 0.35 with falling momentum."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 39,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 39,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 56,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 56,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 77,
"fragility_score_0_100": 39,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"fragility_score_0_100": 38,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 58,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -6,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 18,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 11,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly to 'uranium'; single-market scope enforced.",
"No admitted contradictory record sets were provided (contradictions[] empty; trend contradiction_record_ids empty), so reversal_risk is driven by structural/narrative fragility only.",
"state_change computed using fallback prior=unknown_prior -> assumed neutral baseline; therefore current bullish maps to 'new_bullish'."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}