- subject_area: Uranium futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker: uranium
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: RF-NARRATIVE_TRANSLATION
- generated_at: 2026-04-14 12:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim (trimmed) |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| uranium |
B-URANIUM-1 |
Uranium futures face net upward pressure over the next 6 hours as fresh pro-nuclear policy/energy-security headlines and sector development signals remain one-sided (low counterevidence in the admitted corpus). |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
44 |
| uranium |
B-URANIUM-2 |
Over the next 24 hours, uranium futures remain biased upward given broad, fresh, multi-source reinforcement of nuclear build/innovation narratives and ongoing producer/industry attention. |
67 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
44 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis-uranium-2026-04-14T12:00:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-14T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium futures",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-URANIUM-1",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Uranium futures face net upward pressure over the next 6 hours as fresh pro-nuclear policy/energy-security headlines and sector development signals remain one-sided (low counterevidence in the admitted corpus).",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"reactor_demand",
"nuclear_policy",
"energy_security",
"uranium_supply_contracting",
"geopolitical_supply_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-URANIUM-2",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Over the next 24 hours, uranium futures remain biased upward given broad, fresh, multi-source reinforcement of nuclear build/innovation narratives and ongoing producer/industry attention, with no meaningful fresh opposing evidence admitted.",
"probability_pct": 67,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"reactor_demand",
"nuclear_policy",
"nuclear_innovation",
"energy_security"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-URANIUM-1",
"B-URANIUM-2"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 6,
"B": 0,
"C": 0,
"D": 0,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_signals_0_6h": 4,
"fresh_signals_6_24h": 5,
"stale_signals_24_72h": 3,
"stale_signals_over_72h": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-NARRATIVE_TRANSLATION",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "A large share of admitted evidence is policy/innovation narrative; near-term price translation can be noisy without explicit spot/term contracting or inventory datapoints in the admitted set."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-SLOW_BURN_OVERHANG",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "low",
"description": "Some supporting themes span >7 days (slow-burn). Fresh confirmations are present, but the thesis is partly narrative-persistent rather than purely event-shock."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-LOW_COUNTEREVIDENCE",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "low",
"description": "Contradictions/counterevidence are sparse in the admitted corpus; monitor for sudden opposing supply headlines or demand downgrades (late-break invalidation risk increases if they appear inside a 2h window)."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain long-bias watch while hourly net sentiment stays positive (directional_score_signed >= +20) and contradiction_ratio remains low (<0.20)."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal watch if 2+ independent opposing signals arrive within 2 hours and directional_score_signed falls by >= 25 points versus the prior 3-hour mean."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Volatility watch if high-velocity geopolitical supply headlines cluster (fresh_evidence_count spikes) while contradiction_ratio rises above 0.25."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 57,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 57,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 62,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 63,
"bullish_pressure_score": 79,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 63,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 64,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 64,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 65,
"bullish_pressure_score": 81,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 65,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 66,
"bullish_pressure_score": 82,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 66,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 66,
"bullish_pressure_score": 82,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 66,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 67,
"bullish_pressure_score": 83,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 67,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 67,
"bullish_pressure_score": 83,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 67,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 68,
"bullish_pressure_score": 84,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 68,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 68,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 6,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 8,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code='uranium'.",
"No contradictions provided in admitted corpus; reversal sentinel not triggered.",
"State_change='new_bullish' computed with unknown_prior treated as neutral baseline (no trend_state_memory provided).",
"VIP outliers and risk anomalies were treated as auxiliary context unless directly uranium-market directional."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}