• subject_area: Uranium futures
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker: uranium
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: RF-NARRATIVE_TRANSLATION
  • generated_at: 2026-04-14 12:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-URANIUM-1 Uranium futures face net upward pressure over the next 6 hours as fresh pro-nuclear policy/energy-security headlines and sector development signals remain one-sided (low counterevidence in the admitted corpus). 62 up accelerating 6h false 44
uranium B-URANIUM-2 Over the next 24 hours, uranium futures remain biased upward given broad, fresh, multi-source reinforcement of nuclear build/innovation narratives and ongoing producer/industry attention. 67 up stable 24h false 44
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "cis-uranium-2026-04-14T12:00:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-14T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Uranium futures",
 "market_code": "uranium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "uranium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-URANIUM-1",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Uranium futures face net upward pressure over the next 6 hours as fresh pro-nuclear policy/energy-security headlines and sector development signals remain one-sided (low counterevidence in the admitted corpus).",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "reactor_demand",
 "nuclear_policy",
 "energy_security",
 "uranium_supply_contracting",
 "geopolitical_supply_risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-URANIUM-2",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Over the next 24 hours, uranium futures remain biased upward given broad, fresh, multi-source reinforcement of nuclear build/innovation narratives and ongoing producer/industry attention, with no meaningful fresh opposing evidence admitted.",
 "probability_pct": 67,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "reactor_demand",
 "nuclear_policy",
 "nuclear_innovation",
 "energy_security"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-URANIUM-1",
 "B-URANIUM-2"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 6,
 "B": 0,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 0,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_signals_0_6h": 4,
 "fresh_signals_6_24h": 5,
 "stale_signals_24_72h": 3,
 "stale_signals_over_72h": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-NARRATIVE_TRANSLATION",
 "market": "uranium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "A large share of admitted evidence is policy/innovation narrative; near-term price translation can be noisy without explicit spot/term contracting or inventory datapoints in the admitted set."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-SLOW_BURN_OVERHANG",
 "market": "uranium",
 "severity": "low",
 "description": "Some supporting themes span >7 days (slow-burn). Fresh confirmations are present, but the thesis is partly narrative-persistent rather than purely event-shock."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-LOW_COUNTEREVIDENCE",
 "market": "uranium",
 "severity": "low",
 "description": "Contradictions/counterevidence are sparse in the admitted corpus; monitor for sudden opposing supply headlines or demand downgrades (late-break invalidation risk increases if they appear inside a 2h window)."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain long-bias watch while hourly net sentiment stays positive (directional_score_signed >= +20) and contradiction_ratio remains low (<0.20)."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal watch if 2+ independent opposing signals arrive within 2 hours and directional_score_signed falls by >= 25 points versus the prior 3-hour mean."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Volatility watch if high-velocity geopolitical supply headlines cluster (fresh_evidence_count spikes) while contradiction_ratio rises above 0.25."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 57,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 57,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 62,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 62,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 63,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 79,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 63,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 64,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 64,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 65,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 81,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 9,
 "net_sentiment_score": 65,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 66,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 82,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 9,
 "net_sentiment_score": 66,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 66,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 82,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 9,
 "net_sentiment_score": 66,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 67,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 83,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 9,
 "net_sentiment_score": 67,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 67,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 83,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 9,
 "net_sentiment_score": 67,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 68,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 84,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 9,
 "net_sentiment_score": 68,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 68,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 6,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 8,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code='uranium'.",
 "No contradictions provided in admitted corpus; reversal sentinel not triggered.",
 "State_change='new_bullish' computed with unknown_prior treated as neutral baseline (no trend_state_memory provided).",
 "VIP outliers and risk anomalies were treated as auxiliary context unless directly uranium-market directional."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}