Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker: N/A
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-silver-001 (macro_whipsaw_risk; medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-14T23:59:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim (trimmed) | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| silver | B-silver-001 | Silver bias upward next 24h; industrial-demand (notably solar/supply-chain) remains broadly supportive. | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 41 |
| silver | B-silver-002 | Silver retains safe-haven/investment sensitivity (rates/geopolitics) over next 6–24h; supports bullish-to-mixed skew. | 58 | up | stable | 6h | false | 41 |
| silver | B-silver-003 | Downside limited but macro/rates sensitivity raises whipsaw risk; near-term outcomes likely bullish or range-expanding. | 55 | mixed | accelerating | 24h | false | 41 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis_silver_2026-04-14T23:59:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-14T23:59:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-silver-001",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Silver price bias is upward over the next 24h as industrial-demand narratives (notably solar/supply-chain related) remain broadly supportive and recently refreshed.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"industrial_demand",
"investment_flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-silver-002",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Silver maintains safe-haven/investment bid sensitivity (rates/geopolitics) over the next 6\u201324h, supporting a bullish-to-mixed skew rather than bearish follow-through.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"monetary_policy",
"usd_strength",
"real_rates",
"investment_flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 69,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 71,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-silver-003",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Silver downside is limited but macro/rates sensitivity raises whipsaw risk; near-term outcomes are more likely bullish or range-expanding than clean trend reversal.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"monetary_policy",
"usd_strength",
"real_rates"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-silver-001",
"B-silver-002",
"B-silver-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 22,
"B": 5,
"C": 2,
"D": 21,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_24h": 30,
"stale_24_72h": 12,
"stale_gt_72h": 8
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-silver-001",
"market": "silver",
"type": "macro_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Rates/USD/real-rates narratives are highly active; price response can flip quickly even if directional mass is currently bullish."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-silver-002",
"market": "silver",
"type": "regulatory_supply_noise",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Isolated legal/regulatory items present; more likely volatility/fragility amplifier than clean directional counterevidence in current corpus."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-silver-003",
"market": "silver",
"type": "echo_concentration_in_vip_lane",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Several VIP/outlier items are single-source; treat as watchlist catalysts, not core conviction drivers."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Bullish directional state persists with fresh confirmation and contradiction stays low in next cycle."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Macro/rates headline intensity rises (fresh evidence acceleration) without clear directional agreement."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Two or more independent fresh bearish silver signals appear within <=2h (late-breaking invalidation criteria)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"silver"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 29,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 29,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 39,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 52,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 12,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit contradictions were provided in the admitted corpus; reversal risk set to medium primarily due to macro sensitivity rather than observed counterevidence.",
"Signal timeseries is conservative/shape-focused because per-record timestamp distribution was not fully available in the gated payload (evidence cache truncated).",
"State_change assumes unknown prior state (no trend_state_memory supplied); emitted as new_bullish for state-machine continuity."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}