Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker: N/A
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-silver-001 (macro_whipsaw_risk; medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-14T23:59:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-silver-001 Silver bias upward next 24h; industrial-demand (notably solar/supply-chain) remains broadly supportive. 62 up accelerating 24h false 41
silver B-silver-002 Silver retains safe-haven/investment sensitivity (rates/geopolitics) over next 6–24h; supports bullish-to-mixed skew. 58 up stable 6h false 41
silver B-silver-003 Downside limited but macro/rates sensitivity raises whipsaw risk; near-term outcomes likely bullish or range-expanding. 55 mixed accelerating 24h false 41

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "cis_silver_2026-04-14T23:59:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-14T23:59:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-silver-001",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Silver price bias is upward over the next 24h as industrial-demand narratives (notably solar/supply-chain related) remain broadly supportive and recently refreshed.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "industrial_demand",
 "investment_flows"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-silver-002",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Silver maintains safe-haven/investment bid sensitivity (rates/geopolitics) over the next 6\u201324h, supporting a bullish-to-mixed skew rather than bearish follow-through.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "monetary_policy",
 "usd_strength",
 "real_rates",
 "investment_flows"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 69,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 71,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-silver-003",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Silver downside is limited but macro/rates sensitivity raises whipsaw risk; near-term outcomes are more likely bullish or range-expanding than clean trend reversal.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "monetary_policy",
 "usd_strength",
 "real_rates"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-silver-001",
 "B-silver-002",
 "B-silver-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 22,
 "B": 5,
 "C": 2,
 "D": 21,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_24h": 30,
 "stale_24_72h": 12,
 "stale_gt_72h": 8
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-silver-001",
 "market": "silver",
 "type": "macro_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Rates/USD/real-rates narratives are highly active; price response can flip quickly even if directional mass is currently bullish."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-silver-002",
 "market": "silver",
 "type": "regulatory_supply_noise",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Isolated legal/regulatory items present; more likely volatility/fragility amplifier than clean directional counterevidence in current corpus."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-silver-003",
 "market": "silver",
 "type": "echo_concentration_in_vip_lane",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Several VIP/outlier items are single-source; treat as watchlist catalysts, not core conviction drivers."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Bullish directional state persists with fresh confirmation and contradiction stays low in next cycle."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Macro/rates headline intensity rises (fresh evidence acceleration) without clear directional agreement."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Two or more independent fresh bearish silver signals appear within <=2h (late-breaking invalidation criteria)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 29,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 29,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 39,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 52,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 12,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit contradictions were provided in the admitted corpus; reversal risk set to medium primarily due to macro sensitivity rather than observed counterevidence.",
 "Signal timeseries is conservative/shape-focused because per-record timestamp distribution was not fully available in the gated payload (evidence cache truncated).",
 "State_change assumes unknown prior state (no trend_state_memory supplied); emitted as new_bullish for state-machine continuity."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}