Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker:
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: data_sparsity (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-14T00:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| silver |
B-SI-001 |
Net macro narrative (rates/real-yield expectations) plus investment-flow framing remains supportive for silver over the next 6–24h window, with limited in-corpus opposing evidence. |
63 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
44 |
| silver |
B-SI-002 |
Industrial-demand framing (notably solar/manufacturing-linked demand narratives) is persistently bullish and is being refreshed by recent evidence, supporting upside bias beyond immediate noise. |
60 |
up |
fading |
24h |
false |
44 |
| silver |
B-SI-003 |
Regulatory/legal and mining-project development headlines can introduce near-term downside tail risk (sentiment shock) even if the broader directional bias stays positive. |
32 |
down |
stable |
6h |
false |
44 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "snapshot_2026-04-14T00:00:00Z_silver_6Bv1",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 71,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-001",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Net macro narrative (rates/real-yield expectations) plus investment-flow framing remains supportive for silver over the next 6\u201324h window, with limited in-corpus opposing evidence.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"monetary_policy",
"real_rates",
"usd_strength",
"investment_flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SI-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-002",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Industrial-demand framing (notably solar/manufacturing-linked demand narratives) is persistently bullish and is being refreshed by recent evidence, supporting upside bias beyond immediate noise.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"industrial_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-003",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Regulatory/legal and mining-project development headlines can introduce near-term downside tail risk (sentiment shock) even if the broader directional bias stays positive.",
"probability_pct": 32,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply",
"regulatory_overhang"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SI-001",
"B-SI-002"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 41,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 38,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 71,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-SI-001",
"B-SI-002",
"B-SI-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 158,
"B": 35,
"C": 10,
"D": 229,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_signals_0_24h_est": 8,
"stale_signals_24h_plus_est": 1,
"dominant_window": "0_24h"
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "data_sparsity",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Signal-timeseries buckets are inferred from trend-level recency proxies (latest evidence timestamps), not full per-record timestamp distributions."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Macro/rates-driven support can flip quickly; monitor for fresh opposing macro prints even though no strong opposing evidence is present in the admitted corpus."
},
{
"flag": "stale_overhang",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Several supportive themes are multi-week slow-burn narratives; recent refresh exists but acceleration is modest."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain net directional_score_signed >= +30 with contradiction_ratio <= 0.20 for the next 2\u20133 hourly buckets."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Two or more independent opposing (bearish) records appear within a 2h window AND directional_score_signed drops below +20."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Contradiction_ratio rises above 0.25 while conviction remains >= 60 (headline cross-currents)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"silver"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 29,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 11,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 52,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 4,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 9,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit in-corpus contradictory (bearish) trend set was provided; bearish-side inputs are treated as risk-tail (fragility) rather than directional reversal.",
"State_change derived with unknown prior state; interpreted as neutral-to-bullish transition.",
"Timeseries uses trend-level newest-evidence timestamps as event proxies; bucket values are conservative and intended for lead/lag testing rather than exact intraday reconstruction."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}