Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: data_sparsity (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-14T00:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-SI-001 Net macro narrative (rates/real-yield expectations) plus investment-flow framing remains supportive for silver over the next 6–24h window, with limited in-corpus opposing evidence. 63 up stable 24h false 44
silver B-SI-002 Industrial-demand framing (notably solar/manufacturing-linked demand narratives) is persistently bullish and is being refreshed by recent evidence, supporting upside bias beyond immediate noise. 60 up fading 24h false 44
silver B-SI-003 Regulatory/legal and mining-project development headlines can introduce near-term downside tail risk (sentiment shock) even if the broader directional bias stays positive. 32 down stable 6h false 44

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "snapshot_2026-04-14T00:00:00Z_silver_6Bv1",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 71,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-001",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Net macro narrative (rates/real-yield expectations) plus investment-flow framing remains supportive for silver over the next 6\u201324h window, with limited in-corpus opposing evidence.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "monetary_policy",
 "real_rates",
 "usd_strength",
 "investment_flows"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SI-003"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-002",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Industrial-demand framing (notably solar/manufacturing-linked demand narratives) is persistently bullish and is being refreshed by recent evidence, supporting upside bias beyond immediate noise.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "industrial_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-003",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Regulatory/legal and mining-project development headlines can introduce near-term downside tail risk (sentiment shock) even if the broader directional bias stays positive.",
 "probability_pct": 32,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply",
 "regulatory_overhang"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SI-001",
 "B-SI-002"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 41,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 38,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "stable",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 71,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-SI-001",
 "B-SI-002",
 "B-SI-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 158,
 "B": 35,
 "C": 10,
 "D": 229,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_signals_0_24h_est": 8,
 "stale_signals_24h_plus_est": 1,
 "dominant_window": "0_24h"
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity",
 "market": "silver",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Signal-timeseries buckets are inferred from trend-level recency proxies (latest evidence timestamps), not full per-record timestamp distributions."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "market": "silver",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Macro/rates-driven support can flip quickly; monitor for fresh opposing macro prints even though no strong opposing evidence is present in the admitted corpus."
 },
 {
 "flag": "stale_overhang",
 "market": "silver",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Several supportive themes are multi-week slow-burn narratives; recent refresh exists but acceleration is modest."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain net directional_score_signed >= +30 with contradiction_ratio <= 0.20 for the next 2\u20133 hourly buckets."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Two or more independent opposing (bearish) records appear within a 2h window AND directional_score_signed drops below +20."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Contradiction_ratio rises above 0.25 while conviction remains >= 60 (headline cross-currents)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 29,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 9,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 9,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 11,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 52,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 4,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 9,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit in-corpus contradictory (bearish) trend set was provided; bearish-side inputs are treated as risk-tail (fragility) rather than directional reversal.",
 "State_change derived with unknown prior state; interpreted as neutral-to-bullish transition.",
 "Timeseries uses trend-level newest-evidence timestamps as event proxies; bucket values are conservative and intended for lead/lag testing rather than exact intraday reconstruction."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}