Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: null
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw_risk (severity: medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-14T22:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim (trimmed) |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| natural_gas |
B1 |
Geopolitical escalation / sanctions / maritime-route disruption narratives are sustaining a risk-premium bias that tilts natural gas futures upward over the next 24h. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
58 |
| natural_gas |
B2 |
Operational/pipeline-infrastructure failure chatter increases near-term supply-risk salience, supporting an upside volatility skew in natural gas over the next 6h. |
58 |
up |
stable |
6h |
false |
58 |
| natural_gas |
B3 |
Demand-side signalling in the admitted corpus is noisy/underspecified (weather/storage not present), creating meaningful retracement risk if the risk premium fades. |
45 |
mixed |
fading |
24h |
false |
58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_2026-04-14T22:00:00Z_natural_gas_001",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Geopolitical escalation / sanctions / maritime-route disruption narratives are sustaining a risk-premium bias that tilts natural gas futures upward over the next 24h.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Geopolitical risk escalation cluster (multi-source, high Tier-A presence in admitted set)",
"Supply-route / infrastructure-risk framing repeatedly linked to gas markets"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B3"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B2",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Operational/pipeline-infrastructure failure chatter increases near-term supply-risk salience, supporting an upside volatility skew in natural gas over the next 6h.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Pipeline/infrastructure failure narrative",
"LNG/transit-route reliability risk framing"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B3"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B3",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Demand-side signalling in the admitted corpus is noisy/underspecified (weather/storage not present), creating meaningful retracement risk if the risk premium fades.",
"probability_pct": 45,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Limited direct weather/storage/LNG flow quant signals in admitted inputs",
"Narrative-driven pricing can unwind quickly without confirming fundamentals"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B1",
"B2"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 46,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 40,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1",
"B2",
"B3"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 18,
"B": 2,
"C": 1,
"D": 33,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_est": 10,
"fresh_6_24h_est": 18,
"stale_24_72h_est": 6,
"stale_over_72h_est": 4
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Primary admitted drivers are geopolitical/infrastructure-risk narratives; these can reprice quickly on de-escalation headlines."
},
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Some supporting narratives extend beyond 7 days; continued confirmation is required to keep momentum classification intact."
},
{
"flag": "data_sparsity_core_fundamentals",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Admitted corpus is light on explicit weather-demand, storage, or quantified LNG flow updates versus geopolitical risk narratives."
},
{
"flag": "single_source_vip_lane_present",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Several VIP/risk-anomaly items are single-source; treated as auxiliary context rather than primary directional mass."
},
{
"flag": "unknown_prior_state",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "low",
"details": "No prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory provided; state_change kept as 'unchanged' with unknown baseline."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If the next cycle shows continued fresh multi-source confirmation of supply-route/infrastructure disruption narratives without rising contradiction."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If geopolitical / maritime-route headlines accelerate (fresh evidence clusters inside 0\u20136h) or if infrastructure-outage narratives broaden beyond single-source."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If de-escalation/diplomatic-resolution signals appear in the last 2h from 2+ independent sources (or a hard structural invalidator), raising contradiction materially."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If directional score falls back into [-20,+20] range with falling freshness and no clear replacement driver."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 16,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": -8,
"acceleration_score": -24,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 29,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 27,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 29,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 46,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 9,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Single-market scope enforced: analyzed_markets=['natural_gas'].",
"Directional stance is derived primarily from risk-premium/supply-risk narrative mass; explicit price-direction statements were not provided in the admitted objects.",
"No explicit fresh counter-direction cluster detected inside the last 2h; kill-switch not triggered."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}