Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw_risk (severity: medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-14T22:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B1 Geopolitical escalation / sanctions / maritime-route disruption narratives are sustaining a risk-premium bias that tilts natural gas futures upward over the next 24h. 62 up accelerating 24h false 58
natural_gas B2 Operational/pipeline-infrastructure failure chatter increases near-term supply-risk salience, supporting an upside volatility skew in natural gas over the next 6h. 58 up stable 6h false 58
natural_gas B3 Demand-side signalling in the admitted corpus is noisy/underspecified (weather/storage not present), creating meaningful retracement risk if the risk premium fades. 45 mixed fading 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_2026-04-14T22:00:00Z_natural_gas_001",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-14T22:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Geopolitical escalation / sanctions / maritime-route disruption narratives are sustaining a risk-premium bias that tilts natural gas futures upward over the next 24h.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Geopolitical risk escalation cluster (multi-source, high Tier-A presence in admitted set)",
 "Supply-route / infrastructure-risk framing repeatedly linked to gas markets"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B3"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Operational/pipeline-infrastructure failure chatter increases near-term supply-risk salience, supporting an upside volatility skew in natural gas over the next 6h.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Pipeline/infrastructure failure narrative",
 "LNG/transit-route reliability risk framing"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B3"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Demand-side signalling in the admitted corpus is noisy/underspecified (weather/storage not present), creating meaningful retracement risk if the risk premium fades.",
 "probability_pct": 45,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Limited direct weather/storage/LNG flow quant signals in admitted inputs",
 "Narrative-driven pricing can unwind quickly without confirming fundamentals"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B1",
 "B2"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 46,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 40,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1",
 "B2",
 "B3"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 18,
 "B": 2,
 "C": 1,
 "D": 33,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_est": 10,
 "fresh_6_24h_est": 18,
 "stale_24_72h_est": 6,
 "stale_over_72h_est": 4
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Primary admitted drivers are geopolitical/infrastructure-risk narratives; these can reprice quickly on de-escalation headlines."
 },
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Some supporting narratives extend beyond 7 days; continued confirmation is required to keep momentum classification intact."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity_core_fundamentals",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Admitted corpus is light on explicit weather-demand, storage, or quantified LNG flow updates versus geopolitical risk narratives."
 },
 {
 "flag": "single_source_vip_lane_present",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Several VIP/risk-anomaly items are single-source; treated as auxiliary context rather than primary directional mass."
 },
 {
 "flag": "unknown_prior_state",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "No prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory provided; state_change kept as 'unchanged' with unknown baseline."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If the next cycle shows continued fresh multi-source confirmation of supply-route/infrastructure disruption narratives without rising contradiction."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If geopolitical / maritime-route headlines accelerate (fresh evidence clusters inside 0\u20136h) or if infrastructure-outage narratives broaden beyond single-source."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If de-escalation/diplomatic-resolution signals appear in the last 2h from 2+ independent sources (or a hard structural invalidator), raising contradiction materially."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If directional score falls back into [-20,+20] range with falling freshness and no clear replacement driver."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T23:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 2,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T05:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 16,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T05:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": -8,
 "acceleration_score": -24,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T07:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
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 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T07:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 29,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 27,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
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 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 29,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 46,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 2,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 9,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Single-market scope enforced: analyzed_markets=['natural_gas'].",
 "Directional stance is derived primarily from risk-premium/supply-risk narrative mass; explicit price-direction statements were not provided in the admitted objects.",
 "No explicit fresh counter-direction cluster detected inside the last 2h; kill-switch not triggered."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}