Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: null
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: event_driven_volatility (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-14 04:55 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| natural_gas | B-NG-001 | Near-term headline flow is dominated by geopolitical/energy-security disruption risk (LNG routes + infrastructure), supporting a risk-premium bid in natural gas futures. | 62 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 61 |
| natural_gas | B-NG-002 | Over the next 24h the signal remains bullish-tilted but is fragile/event-driven; rapid de-escalation headlines could compress the risk premium quickly. | 56 | up | stable | 24h | false | 61 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-natgas-20260414T045541Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-14T04:55:41Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Natural gas futures", "market_code": "natural_gas" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 61, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "natural_gas", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "natural_gas" ], "regime_state": "loosening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-NG-001", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "Near-term headline flow is dominated by geopolitical/energy-security disruption risk (LNG routes + infrastructure), supporting a risk-premium bid in natural gas futures.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "energy_geopolitics", "lng_export_flows", "pipeline_infrastructure" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-NG-002", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "Over the next 24h the signal remains bullish-tilted but is fragile/event-driven; rapid de-escalation headlines could compress the risk premium quickly.", "probability_pct": 56, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "energy_geopolitics", "lng_export_flows" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 54, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "natural_gas", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 72, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": true, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-NG-001", "B-NG-002" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 35, "B": 3, "C": 2, "D": 60, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h_est": 14, "fresh_6_24h_est": 26, "stale_over_24h_est": 60 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "event_driven_volatility", "market": "natural_gas", "severity": "medium", "details": "Dominant drivers are geopolitical/route-security headlines; regime can flip quickly on de-escalation." }, { "flag": "stale_context_overhang", "market": "natural_gas", "severity": "low", "details": "Some admitted background narratives span >7d; downweighted versus last-24h surge." }, { "flag": "fundamental_data_sparsity_in_feed", "market": "natural_gas", "severity": "medium", "details": "This slice is light on explicit storage/production/weather fundamentals; conviction is primarily headline-risk-premium based." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "medium", "action": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "If fresh LNG-route disruption / escalation headlines persist across multiple independent sources in the next 6h without credible de-escalation counterprints." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "high", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "Any rapid sequence of escalation then de-escalation headlines inside a 2\u20134h window (whipsaw risk)." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "medium", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "Two or more independent de-escalation/normalisation signals within <=2h that directly reduce LNG/pipeline disruption odds." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "natural_gas" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 32, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 74, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 7, "bullish_pressure_score": 31, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 7, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 33, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 9, "bullish_pressure_score": 33, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 35, "fragility_score_0_100": 73, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 71, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 14, "bullish_pressure_score": 38, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 14, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 16, "bullish_pressure_score": 40, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 16, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 42, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 17, "bullish_pressure_score": 41, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 17, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 43, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 44, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 46, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 48, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 50, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 69, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 43, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 43, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 7, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 46, "bullish_pressure_score": 70, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 46, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 8, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 46, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 4, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 7, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 3, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target scope locked to single market: natural_gas (explicit).", "Directional inference is primarily risk-premium (geopolitical / LNG route / infrastructure disruption) rather than explicit storage/weather/production fundamentals.", "No explicit fresh counterevidence detected in admitted set; reversal risk is driven by event-driven de-escalation potential rather than observed opposing signals." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }