Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: RF-lithium-001: data_sparsity (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-14T10:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim (trimmed) | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lithium | B-lithium-001 | Lithium futures sentiment skews upward over the next 24h as demand-side EV adoption + policy support narratives remain broad and fresh, with limited opposing evidence present in the admitted corpus. | 63 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 48 |
| lithium | B-lithium-002 | In the next 6h, lithium futures sentiment remains modestly positive, with strengthening near-term newsflow but some fragility due to indirect (demand/policy) linkage versus direct spot/futures supply-demand pricing signals. | 58 | up | stable | 6h | false | 48 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-lithium-20260414T100000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-14T10:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-lithium-001",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Lithium futures sentiment skews upward over the next 24h as demand-side EV adoption + policy support narratives remain broad and fresh, with limited opposing evidence present in the admitted corpus.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"EV adoption / demand narrative breadth (multi-source)",
"Battery manufacturing / capacity expansion themes (CATL, OEM ecosystem)",
"Policy and mandate signals (government / regulator-linked items)",
"Lithium supply-chain visibility (Chile / SQM-related context) without fresh downside counterweight in-corpus"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-lithium-002",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "In the next 6h, lithium futures sentiment remains modestly positive, with strengthening near-term newsflow but some fragility due to indirect (demand/policy) linkage versus direct spot/futures supply-demand pricing signals.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Fresh multi-domain mentions inside the last 24h (policy + OEM + battery supply chain)",
"Low observed contradiction / counterevidence in the admitted set"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 84,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-lithium-001",
"B-lithium-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 55,
"B": 8,
"C": 12,
"D": 180,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_est": 6,
"fresh_6_24h_est": 18,
"fresh_24_72h_est": 22,
"stale_gt_72h_est": 60
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-lithium-001",
"market": "lithium",
"type": "data_sparsity",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Signal is derived from narrative/trend corpus without direct futures/spot price microstructure inputs in this workflow stage."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-lithium-002",
"market": "lithium",
"type": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Several supporting themes span >7 days; while fresh confirmation exists, part of the directional thesis relies on persistent background narratives."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-lithium-003",
"market": "lithium",
"type": "authority_vs_mass_mix",
"severity": "low",
"note": "Directional mass is broad; authority confirmation is present but diluted by a large low-tier share (noise risk)."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-lithium-004",
"market": "lithium",
"type": "echo_risk_vip_lane",
"severity": "low",
"note": "Multiple VIP outliers are single-source; treated as auxiliary only and not primary conviction drivers."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish watch if fresh (<=24h) EV demand / battery buildout / policy signals persist AND no fresh opposing supply-glut or demand-shock evidence appears."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate to reversal watch if 2+ independent opposing signals arrive within 2h and contradiction ratio rises materially versus the current low baseline."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Monitor for volatility if late-breaking policy or mining-supply updates cluster tightly in time (headline whipsaw risk)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
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"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 39,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 43,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 43,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 53,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 53,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 12,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit opposing/counterevidence objects were present in provided 5B payload; reversal risk computed primarily from contradiction absence and freshness dominance.",
"State change computed with unknown prior-state context; reported as 'unchanged' to avoid assuming a prior neutral/bullish baseline."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}