Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: RF-lithium-001: data_sparsity (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-14T10:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-lithium-001 Lithium futures sentiment skews upward over the next 24h as demand-side EV adoption + policy support narratives remain broad and fresh, with limited opposing evidence present in the admitted corpus. 63 up accelerating 24h false 48
lithium B-lithium-002 In the next 6h, lithium futures sentiment remains modestly positive, with strengthening near-term newsflow but some fragility due to indirect (demand/policy) linkage versus direct spot/futures supply-demand pricing signals. 58 up stable 6h false 48

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-lithium-20260414T100000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-14T10:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-lithium-001",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Lithium futures sentiment skews upward over the next 24h as demand-side EV adoption + policy support narratives remain broad and fresh, with limited opposing evidence present in the admitted corpus.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "EV adoption / demand narrative breadth (multi-source)",
 "Battery manufacturing / capacity expansion themes (CATL, OEM ecosystem)",
 "Policy and mandate signals (government / regulator-linked items)",
 "Lithium supply-chain visibility (Chile / SQM-related context) without fresh downside counterweight in-corpus"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-lithium-002",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "In the next 6h, lithium futures sentiment remains modestly positive, with strengthening near-term newsflow but some fragility due to indirect (demand/policy) linkage versus direct spot/futures supply-demand pricing signals.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Fresh multi-domain mentions inside the last 24h (policy + OEM + battery supply chain)",
 "Low observed contradiction / counterevidence in the admitted set"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 84,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-lithium-001",
 "B-lithium-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 55,
 "B": 8,
 "C": 12,
 "D": 180,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_est": 6,
 "fresh_6_24h_est": 18,
 "fresh_24_72h_est": 22,
 "stale_gt_72h_est": 60
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-lithium-001",
 "market": "lithium",
 "type": "data_sparsity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Signal is derived from narrative/trend corpus without direct futures/spot price microstructure inputs in this workflow stage."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-lithium-002",
 "market": "lithium",
 "type": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Several supporting themes span >7 days; while fresh confirmation exists, part of the directional thesis relies on persistent background narratives."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-lithium-003",
 "market": "lithium",
 "type": "authority_vs_mass_mix",
 "severity": "low",
 "note": "Directional mass is broad; authority confirmation is present but diluted by a large low-tier share (noise risk)."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-lithium-004",
 "market": "lithium",
 "type": "echo_risk_vip_lane",
 "severity": "low",
 "note": "Multiple VIP outliers are single-source; treated as auxiliary only and not primary conviction drivers."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish watch if fresh (<=24h) EV demand / battery buildout / policy signals persist AND no fresh opposing supply-glut or demand-shock evidence appears."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate to reversal watch if 2+ independent opposing signals arrive within 2h and contradiction ratio rises materially versus the current low baseline."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Monitor for volatility if late-breaking policy or mining-supply updates cluster tightly in time (headline whipsaw risk)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 39,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 39,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 43,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 43,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 53,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 53,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 12,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit opposing/counterevidence objects were present in provided 5B payload; reversal risk computed primarily from contradiction absence and freshness dominance.",
 "State change computed with unknown prior-state context; reported as 'unchanged' to avoid assuming a prior neutral/bullish baseline."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}