• subject_area: Gold futures
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker: ""
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: data_sparsity
  • generated_at: 2026-04-14T16:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-GOLD-001 Gold futures near-term direction is mixed because the currently admitted gold-specific signals are sparse and stale (no strong fresh catalyst dominance in the last 24h). 58 mixed fading 24h false 72
gold B-GOLD-002 Background attention to gold market logistics/ETF positioning exists in the corpus, but it is not fresh enough to sustain a directional bias without new confirmation. 55 flat fading 6h false 72 
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_gold_GC_2026-04-14T16:00:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-14T16:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Gold futures",
 "market_code": "gold"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 34,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "gold",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "regime_state": "rangebound",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-001",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Gold futures near-term direction is mixed because the currently admitted gold-specific signals are sparse and stale (no strong fresh catalyst dominance in the last 24h).",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "data_sparsity (gold-specific)",
 "stale_context_overhang (gold market logistics/flows themes are >72h old in provided corpus)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 28,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 34,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-002",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Background attention to gold market logistics/ETF positioning exists in the corpus, but it is not fresh enough to sustain a directional bias without new confirmation.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "flat",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "gold market logistics/trade-disruption mentions (single-source)",
 "gold ETF proxy mention (GLD) (single-source)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 25,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 30,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 26,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 34,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low",
 "freshness_confidence": "low",
 "catalyst_type": "unclear",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-GOLD-001",
 "B-GOLD-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 1,
 "B": 0,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 1,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "evidence_items_mapped_to_gold": 3,
 "age_0_6h": 0,
 "age_6_24h": 0,
 "age_24_72h": 0,
 "age_gt_72h": 3
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "Only a small set of gold-mapped signals available; many broader macro/geopolitical items could not be confidently market-mapped to gold under alias rules."
 },
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "Gold-mapped evidence timestamps are clustered in early March 2026 (older than 72h vs 2026-04-14). Direction is therefore suppressed."
 },
 {
 "flag": "freshness_gap_24h",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "No admitted gold-mapped evidence in the last 24h window; near-term signal should be treated as fragile."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If no fresh gold-mapped evidence appears (0\u201324h) and conviction remains <45, maintain neutral posture.",
 "action": "stay_flat"
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If a cluster of fresh (<=24h) gold-specific drivers emerges (e.g., USD/real-rates or flows) and directional_score_signed moves beyond +/-20, reassess direction.",
 "action": "volatility_watch"
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If a late-breaking, high-trust gold-specific invalidator appears within <=2h that contradicts the prevailing read, enable kill-switch and downgrade conviction until corroborated.",
 "action": "hard_de_risk_watch"
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
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 },
 {
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 {
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
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 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 0,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 0,
 "cross_domain_merges": 1,
 "stale_suppression_count": 3,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Gold-mapped admitted signals were limited to gold/GLD/logistics-specific VIP outliers; major geopolitical/macro trend items were treated as unmapped to avoid forced market mapping.",
 "All admitted gold-mapped evidence is older than 72 hours versus snapshot timestamp; stale suppression applied and momentum set to weakening.",
 "No late-breaking (<=2h) opposing gold-mapped evidence detected; kill-switch not triggered."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}