Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold futures
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker: gold
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: data_sparsity (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-14T00:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Fragile
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-GOLD-1 Gold futures are more likely to remain mixed/rangebound over the next 6–24 hours because the admitted gold-mapped signal set is sparse and lacks fresh corroboration in the last 24 hours. 55 mixed fading 24h false 78
gold B-GOLD-2 If gold trade/traceability disruption narratives broaden beyond single-source reporting, short-term upside volatility risk for gold could increase. 35 up stable 6h false 78

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-2026-04-14T00:00:00Z-gold", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Gold futures", "market_code": "gold" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 28, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "gold", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "gold" ], "regime_state": "rangebound", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-GOLD-1", "market": "gold", "claim": "Gold futures are more likely to remain mixed/rangebound over the next 6\u201324 hours because the admitted gold-mapped signal set is sparse and lacks fresh corroboration in the last 24 hours.", "probability_pct": 55, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "data_sparsity_in_gold_specific_feeds", "lack_of_fresh_confirming_evidence_last_24h" ], "contradicted_by": [ "a_singleton_supply_chain_disruption_story_that_could_escalate_if_corroborated", "ETF_positioning_noise_without_confirmed_source_diversity" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 30, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 15, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" }, { "belief_id": "B-GOLD-2", "market": "gold", "claim": "If gold trade/traceability disruption narratives broaden beyond single-source reporting, short-term upside volatility risk for gold could increase.", "probability_pct": 35, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "physical_gold_supply_chain_traceability_risk", "potential_trade_route_or_compliance_friction" ], "contradicted_by": [ "currently_single_source_echo_risk", "no_recent_multi_source_confirmation" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 22, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 5, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "gold", "directional_state": "neutral_mixed", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "low", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 32, "conviction_score_0_100": 28, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18, "authority_confirmation_band": "low", "freshness_confidence": "low", "catalyst_type": "unclear", "stale_suppression_applied": true, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-GOLD-1", "B-GOLD-2" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 0, "B": 0, "C": 0, "D": 1, "U": 1 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h": 0, "fresh_6_24h": 0, "mid_24_72h": 0, "stale_gt_72h": 2, "total_admitted_signals": 2 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "market": "gold", "flag": "data_sparsity", "severity": "high", "detail": "Only 2 gold-mapped admitted signals (below min_evidence_threshold=3); direction suppressed to neutral_mixed." }, { "market": "gold", "flag": "stale_context_overhang", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Admitted gold-related evidence is older than 72h; stale suppression applied and momentum marked weakening." }, { "market": "gold", "flag": "single_source_echo_risk", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Physical gold trade/traceability disruption item is single-source and low-authority (echo-risk)." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "gold", "confidence": "high", "action_label": "stay_flat", "trigger_condition": "Remain in neutral watch posture until >=3 independent, recent (<=24h) gold-mapped signals align directionally." }, { "market": "gold", "confidence": "medium", "action_label": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "Escalate to volatility watch if additional independent sources confirm physical gold trade/traceability disruptions or if fresh macro-rate headlines explicitly reference gold positioning." }, { "market": "gold", "confidence": "low", "action_label": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "Activate reversal watch only if a fresh (<=2h) hard invalidator appears that flips the net gold-mapped corpus direction from neutral to strongly one-sided." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [ "gold" ], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 85, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, 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}, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 85, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 85, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 85, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 85, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, 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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 85, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 85, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 85, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 85, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "flat", "latest_inflection_strength": 0, "signal_regime": "mixed_flat" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 0, "cross_domain_merges": 0, "stale_suppression_count": 1, "reversal_flags_count": 0, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": true, "notes": [ "Target market resolved explicitly as 'gold' from flight_plan.target_market_code.", "Most high-volume trends in the provided corpus were geopolitics/energy themed but could not be confidently alias-mapped to the canonical market 'gold' (no explicit gold/XAU/bullion linkage), so they were not admitted for single-market gold synthesis.", "Only two gold-mapped signals were available (VIP-001: gold trade/traceability disruption; VIP-010: GLD dynamics). This is below min_evidence_threshold=3; direction held neutral_mixed.", "No admitted gold-mapped evidence fell within the last 24h window; timeseries buckets are therefore sparse/flat with low conviction and high fragility." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }