Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: copper
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: trade_policy_volatility (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-14T23:10:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper copper_belief_01_demand_pull Near-term copper futures sentiment is supported by broad demand-side narratives (electrification, grid modernisation, energy storage, infrastructure buildout) remaining dominant in the most recent window. 63 up accelerating 24h false 42
copper copper_belief_02_supply_tightness Supply-side disruption/risk narratives (mine disruptions, regulatory restrictions, labour action risk) add incremental upside bias to copper futures sentiment in the next 6–24 hours. 58 up stable 6h false 42

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "CIS-20260414T231000Z-copper",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-14T23:10:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "copper_belief_01_demand_pull",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Near-term copper futures sentiment is supported by broad demand-side narratives (electrification, grid modernisation, energy storage, infrastructure buildout) remaining dominant in the most recent window.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_transition_demand",
 "industrial_demand",
 "inventory_exchange_stocks"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "trade_policy uncertainty shock risk",
 "macro/industrial production softness risk (indicator narratives)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "copper_belief_02_supply_tightness",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Supply-side disruption/risk narratives (mine disruptions, regulatory restrictions, labour action risk) add incremental upside bias to copper futures sentiment in the next 6\u201324 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply_disruption",
 "trade_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "rapid de-escalation / resolution of supply risks",
 "policy headline reversal risk"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 65,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "copper_belief_01_demand_pull",
 "copper_belief_02_supply_tightness"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 18,
 "B": 6,
 "C": 2,
 "D": 44,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_signals_est": 7,
 "fresh_6_24h_signals_est": 5,
 "stale_gt_24h_signals_est": 3
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "trade_policy_volatility",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Trade-policy-driven headlines are a plausible fast reversal vector even with bullish mass."
 },
 {
 "flag": "single_source_outlier_noise",
 "severity": "low",
 "note": "VIP outliers include several single-source items; treated as low-weight add-ons."
 },
 {
 "flag": "seed_level_risk_unconfirmed",
 "severity": "low",
 "note": "Some late risk anomaly seeds have unmaterialised evidence bundles; do not treat as hard confirmation."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional score remains >= +20 with fresh evidence dominance in the next cycle."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Two or more independent fresh (<2h) opposing demand-shock / macro-weakness signals appear and contradiction ratio rises materially."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Trade-policy or regulatory headlines cluster inside a 2\u20136h window."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
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 },
 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 },
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 },
 {
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 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": true,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": [
 {
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 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 64,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 64,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 39,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T21:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 68,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 9,
 "net_sentiment_score": 68,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T21:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 72,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 81,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 9,
 "net_sentiment_score": 72,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T22:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 73,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 82,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 9,
 "net_sentiment_score": 73,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T22:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 75,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 84,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 9,
 "net_sentiment_score": 75,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 75,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 15,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 12,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 }
}