Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: copper
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
- generated_at: 2026-04-14T03:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| copper |
B-copper-001 |
Copper futures sentiment is biased upward over the next 24h as electrification / grid spend narratives remain broadly supportive and supply-disruption discourse stays active. |
62 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
49 |
| copper |
B-copper-002 |
Near-term copper sentiment remains vulnerable to fast reversals because the most recent impetus is headline-driven (policy / trade) rather than a single dominant hard catalyst. |
57 |
mixed |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
49 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260414-copper-0001",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-001",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Copper futures sentiment is biased upward over the next 24h as electrification / grid spend narratives remain broadly supportive and supply-disruption discourse stays active.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Energy transition demand narrative (grid modernisation, EV infrastructure, power infrastructure)",
"Supply-side disruption risk framing around major producers (e.g., Codelco / Chile-linked disruption coverage)",
"Broad multi-source reinforcement across macro/industrial-policy narratives"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Trade-policy headline risk increasing macro uncertainty (tariffs / export controls narratives)",
"Potential China-growth sensitivity implied by industrial production indicator focus (VIP singleton signals are thin)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-002",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Near-term copper sentiment remains vulnerable to fast reversals because the most recent impetus is headline-driven (policy / trade) rather than a single dominant hard catalyst.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Trade-policy narrative intensity (US/China positioning, tariff framing)",
"Background-demand narratives not clearly accelerating in the very last window (slow-burn profile)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Broad ongoing reinforcement of energy-transition demand narrative"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-copper-001",
"B-copper-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 18,
"B": 3,
"C": 2,
"D": 27,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_est": 6,
"fresh_6_24h_est": 18,
"stale_24_72h_est": 30,
"stale_over_72h_est": 238,
"basis_note": "Estimated from provided trend evidence recency proxies and cache size; counts may overlap across trends."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Several supportive narratives appear slow-burn (multi-week spans), which can cap momentum even with fresh touches."
},
{
"flag": "policy_headline_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Trade-policy narratives raise short-horizon reversal risk despite broadly bullish demand/supply framing."
},
{
"flag": "data_sparsity_in_vip_lane",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "VIP outliers are largely single-source items; treated as weak confirmers rather than primary drivers."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If next-cycle evidence continues to reinforce supply-disruption / electrification demand without a fresh opposing macro shock, maintain long-bias watch."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If trade-policy headlines accelerate or broaden (fresh multi-source escalation), elevate volatility/reversal watch."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=2h) opposing evidence appears from 2+ independent sources, treat as potential late-breaking invalidation and move to hard de-risk watch."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": -7,
"acceleration_score": -19,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
],
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 52,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 19,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Prior state unavailable (no trend_state_memory / prior market_state_table provided): state_change set to 'unchanged' as unknown_prior fallback.",
"Most admitted drivers are persistent macro/energy-transition narratives with fresh touches; treated as 'background_persistent' catalyst type."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}