Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: copper
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
  • generated_at: 2026-04-14T03:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-copper-001 Copper futures sentiment is biased upward over the next 24h as electrification / grid spend narratives remain broadly supportive and supply-disruption discourse stays active. 62 up stable 24h false 49
copper B-copper-002 Near-term copper sentiment remains vulnerable to fast reversals because the most recent impetus is headline-driven (policy / trade) rather than a single dominant hard catalyst. 57 mixed accelerating 6h false 49

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260414-copper-0001",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-001",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Copper futures sentiment is biased upward over the next 24h as electrification / grid spend narratives remain broadly supportive and supply-disruption discourse stays active.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Energy transition demand narrative (grid modernisation, EV infrastructure, power infrastructure)",
 "Supply-side disruption risk framing around major producers (e.g., Codelco / Chile-linked disruption coverage)",
 "Broad multi-source reinforcement across macro/industrial-policy narratives"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Trade-policy headline risk increasing macro uncertainty (tariffs / export controls narratives)",
 "Potential China-growth sensitivity implied by industrial production indicator focus (VIP singleton signals are thin)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-002",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Near-term copper sentiment remains vulnerable to fast reversals because the most recent impetus is headline-driven (policy / trade) rather than a single dominant hard catalyst.",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Trade-policy narrative intensity (US/China positioning, tariff framing)",
 "Background-demand narratives not clearly accelerating in the very last window (slow-burn profile)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Broad ongoing reinforcement of energy-transition demand narrative"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "stable",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-copper-001",
 "B-copper-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 18,
 "B": 3,
 "C": 2,
 "D": 27,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_est": 6,
 "fresh_6_24h_est": 18,
 "stale_24_72h_est": 30,
 "stale_over_72h_est": 238,
 "basis_note": "Estimated from provided trend evidence recency proxies and cache size; counts may overlap across trends."
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Several supportive narratives appear slow-burn (multi-week spans), which can cap momentum even with fresh touches."
 },
 {
 "flag": "policy_headline_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Trade-policy narratives raise short-horizon reversal risk despite broadly bullish demand/supply framing."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity_in_vip_lane",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "VIP outliers are largely single-source items; treated as weak confirmers rather than primary drivers."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If next-cycle evidence continues to reinforce supply-disruption / electrification demand without a fresh opposing macro shock, maintain long-bias watch."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If trade-policy headlines accelerate or broaden (fresh multi-source escalation), elevate volatility/reversal watch."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=2h) opposing evidence appears from 2+ independent sources, treat as potential late-breaking invalidation and move to hard de-risk watch."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": -7,
 "acceleration_score": -19,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ],
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 52,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 19,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 10,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Prior state unavailable (no trend_state_memory / prior market_state_table provided): state_change set to 'unchanged' as unknown_prior fallback.",
 "Most admitted drivers are persistent macro/energy-transition narratives with fresh touches; treated as 'background_persistent' catalyst type."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}