Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: coffee
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw_risk (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-14T23:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-01 Coffee futures price pressure is biased upward as logistics/shipping disruptions and trade-flow friction elevate effective supply risk... 62 up accelerating 24h false 54
coffee B-coffee-02 Cost-push pressures (inputs, labour, energy-linked freight) and resilient consumption narratives support higher near-term... 58 up stable 6h false 54

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260414T230000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-14T23:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-01",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Coffee futures price pressure is biased upward as logistics/shipping disruptions and trade-flow friction elevate effective supply risk into consuming markets.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Logistics delays / port congestion / container scarcity impacting coffee export timelines",
 "Geopolitical shipping chokepoint risk spilling into agricultural supply chains",
 "Broad multi-source reinforcement across general trade + coffee-linked logistics narratives"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-02",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Cost-push pressures (inputs, labour, energy-linked freight) and resilient consumption narratives support higher near-term coffee pricing expectations.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Rising agricultural input/production cost narratives",
 "Retail / specialty coffee channel expansion supporting demand-side resilience",
 "Climate/anomaly risk chatter reinforcing volatility premium"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-01",
 "B-coffee-02"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "basis": "sum_across_admitted_trends_not_deduped",
 "A": 163,
 "B": 7,
 "C": 2,
 "D": 348,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "basis": "trend_level_evidence_recency_proxy_and_samples",
 "fresh_signal_presence": true,
 "newest_evidence_seen_utc": "2026-04-14T22:38:34Z",
 "oldest_evidence_seen_utc": "2026-04-09T11:18:56Z",
 "span_hours_observed": 130.96
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "reason": "A meaningful portion of bullish price pressure is routed through geopolitical/logistics narratives that can de-escalate quickly, increasing reversal sensitivity."
 },
 {
 "flag": "authority_mix_skew_low_tier_share",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "reason": "Directional mass is broad, but many reinforcing records are lower-tier/long-tail domains; authority confirmation is present yet not dominant."
 },
 {
 "flag": "mapping_inference_risk",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "low",
 "reason": "Several admitted signals are 'negative' in narrative sentiment (disruption/cost stress) but are interpreted as bullish for futures via supply-tightness / cost-push channels."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh logistics/cost disruption headlines continue to cluster without fresh counterevidence, maintain bullish monitoring bias."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If geopolitical shipping risk narratives escalate (or abruptly de-escalate), expect volatility expansion and faster regime shifts."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If a fresh, multi-source easing signal appears (e.g., improved export flows / reduced disruption chatter) within a 2\u20136h window, treat as potential reversal setup."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Only if evidence stream becomes sparse or contradiction ratio spikes materially."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 39,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 39,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 54,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 49,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 49,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -5,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 7,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "State-change computed with unknown prior state; baseline assumed neutral for transition classification.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects supplied; reversal risk set to medium primarily due to geopolitics/logistics headline sensitivity rather than observed counterevidence.",
 "Timeseries is a conservative shape-layer derived from admitted trend temporal profiles (peak buckets + recency heat), not from fully enumerated per-record timestamps (full record set was truncated upstream)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}