Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: coffee
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw_risk (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-14T23:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim (trimmed) |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B-coffee-01 |
Coffee futures price pressure is biased upward as logistics/shipping disruptions and trade-flow friction elevate effective supply risk... |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
54 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-02 |
Cost-push pressures (inputs, labour, energy-linked freight) and resilient consumption narratives support higher near-term... |
58 |
up |
stable |
6h |
false |
54 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260414T230000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-14T23:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-01",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Coffee futures price pressure is biased upward as logistics/shipping disruptions and trade-flow friction elevate effective supply risk into consuming markets.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Logistics delays / port congestion / container scarcity impacting coffee export timelines",
"Geopolitical shipping chokepoint risk spilling into agricultural supply chains",
"Broad multi-source reinforcement across general trade + coffee-linked logistics narratives"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-02",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Cost-push pressures (inputs, labour, energy-linked freight) and resilient consumption narratives support higher near-term coffee pricing expectations.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Rising agricultural input/production cost narratives",
"Retail / specialty coffee channel expansion supporting demand-side resilience",
"Climate/anomaly risk chatter reinforcing volatility premium"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-01",
"B-coffee-02"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"basis": "sum_across_admitted_trends_not_deduped",
"A": 163,
"B": 7,
"C": 2,
"D": 348,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"basis": "trend_level_evidence_recency_proxy_and_samples",
"fresh_signal_presence": true,
"newest_evidence_seen_utc": "2026-04-14T22:38:34Z",
"oldest_evidence_seen_utc": "2026-04-09T11:18:56Z",
"span_hours_observed": 130.96
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"reason": "A meaningful portion of bullish price pressure is routed through geopolitical/logistics narratives that can de-escalate quickly, increasing reversal sensitivity."
},
{
"flag": "authority_mix_skew_low_tier_share",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"reason": "Directional mass is broad, but many reinforcing records are lower-tier/long-tail domains; authority confirmation is present yet not dominant."
},
{
"flag": "mapping_inference_risk",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "low",
"reason": "Several admitted signals are 'negative' in narrative sentiment (disruption/cost stress) but are interpreted as bullish for futures via supply-tightness / cost-push channels."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh logistics/cost disruption headlines continue to cluster without fresh counterevidence, maintain bullish monitoring bias."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If geopolitical shipping risk narratives escalate (or abruptly de-escalate), expect volatility expansion and faster regime shifts."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If a fresh, multi-source easing signal appears (e.g., improved export flows / reduced disruption chatter) within a 2\u20136h window, treat as potential reversal setup."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Only if evidence stream becomes sparse or contradiction ratio spikes materially."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 39,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 49,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 49,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -5,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 7,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"State-change computed with unknown prior state; baseline assumed neutral for transition classification.",
"No explicit contradiction objects supplied; reversal risk set to medium primarily due to geopolitics/logistics headline sensitivity rather than observed counterevidence.",
"Timeseries is a conservative shape-layer derived from admitted trend temporal profiles (peak buckets + recency heat), not from fully enumerated per-record timestamps (full record set was truncated upstream)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}