Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-14T06:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-01-logistics-up Near-term coffee futures pricing is biased upward as trade-route/logistics disruption narratives (shipping delays, route risk, freight friction) dominate the latest coffee-adjacent supply-chain corpus. 64 up accelerating 24h false 44
coffee B-coffee-02-input_costs-up Coffee futures pricing is supported by rising/volatile agricultural input-cost and production-cost narratives (energy/fuel, fertiliser, labour), which typically translate into firmer forward pricing expectations. 61 up accelerating 24h false 44
coffee B-coffee-03-demand-backstop Demand-side narratives (retail expansion, product innovation, consumption trend growth) provide a supportive backdrop that reduces downside follow-through risk in the next 24h, even if supply headlines fade. 57 up stable 24h false 44

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_20260414T060000Z_coffee", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-14T06:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Coffee futures (KC)", "market_code": "coffee" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "coffee", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "coffee" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-coffee-01-logistics-up", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Near-term coffee futures pricing is biased upward as trade-route/logistics disruption narratives (shipping delays, route risk, freight friction) dominate the latest coffee-adjacent supply-chain corpus.", "probability_pct": 64, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "shipping_freight", "origin_supply", "geopolitical_route_risk" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-coffee-02-input_costs-up", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Coffee futures pricing is supported by rising/volatile agricultural input-cost and production-cost narratives (energy/fuel, fertiliser, labour), which typically translate into firmer forward pricing expectations.", "probability_pct": 61, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "labour_costs", "origin_supply", "shipping_freight" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-coffee-03-demand-backstop", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Demand-side narratives (retail expansion, product innovation, consumption trend growth) provide a supportive backdrop that reduces downside follow-through risk in the next 24h, even if supply headlines fade.", "probability_pct": 57, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "consumption_trends", "market_positioning" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 59, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "coffee", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-coffee-01-logistics-up", "B-coffee-02-input_costs-up", "B-coffee-03-demand-backstop" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 28, "B": 4, "C": 4, "D": 104, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h_evidence_proxy": 10, "fresh_6_24h_evidence_proxy": 22, "stale_24_72h_evidence_proxy": 14, "stale_over_72h_evidence_proxy": 6 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "stale_context_overhang", "market": "coffee", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Portions of the demand/expansion narrative appear persistent/background (multi-day), so the bullish thesis is partly supported by themes not purely driven by the last 6h." }, { "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk", "market": "coffee", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Geopolitical/logistics narratives can flip rapidly; monitor for fresh de-escalation or route-normalisation headlines that could compress risk premium." }, { "flag": "volatility_watch", "market": "coffee", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Macro freight + input-cost drivers can produce gap-risk and short-horizon reversals even without explicit counterevidence." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "coffee", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Maintain upward bias if logistics disruption / input-cost headlines continue to print in the most recent 6h window without credible offsetting supply-improvement signals." }, { "market": "coffee", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if geopolitics/shipping-route coverage accelerates (multiple independent sources in <=6h) or if freight/energy cost narratives spike." }, { "market": "coffee", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Upgrade to reversal watch if fresh (<=2h) opposing evidence appears (e.g., verified supply relief / shipment normalisation / crop improvement) from 2+ independent sources." }, { "market": "coffee", "action": "stay_flat", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Stay flat only if contradiction ratio rises materially and net directional score falls back into neutral (|score| < 20) for 3+ consecutive hourly buckets." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "coffee" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 44, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.37, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 46, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.36, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 48, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.35, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 50, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.34, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.33, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.33, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.31, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 47, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 7, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 8, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 69, "fragility_score_0_100": 42, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 74, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 7, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "fragility_score_0_100": 40, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 55, "bullish_pressure_score": 81, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 55, "velocity_score": 7, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 7, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 75, "fragility_score_0_100": 38, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 58, "bullish_pressure_score": 84, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 58, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": -4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 75, "fragility_score_0_100": 38, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 54, "bullish_pressure_score": 80, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 54, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": -7, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 73, "fragility_score_0_100": 39, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 50, "bullish_pressure_score": 76, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 50, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 71, "fragility_score_0_100": 40, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 46, "bullish_pressure_score": 72, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 46, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 69, "fragility_score_0_100": 42, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 70, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 43, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 43, "bullish_pressure_score": 69, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 43, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 71, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 43, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 47, "bullish_pressure_score": 73, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 47, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 69, "fragility_score_0_100": 42, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 50, "bullish_pressure_score": 76, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 50, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 71, "fragility_score_0_100": 41, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 52, "bullish_pressure_score": 78, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 52, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "fragility_score_0_100": 40, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 51, "bullish_pressure_score": 77, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 51, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 71, "fragility_score_0_100": 41, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 49, "bullish_pressure_score": 75, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 49, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 69, "fragility_score_0_100": 42, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 74, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "fragility_score_0_100": 43, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 58, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 6, "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish" }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "balanced", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 6, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=coffee.", "No explicit contradictory records were provided in the admitted corpus; reversal_risk set to medium primarily due to fast-flip nature of geopolitical/logistics narratives (not due to present counterevidence).", "Prior market state not provided; state_change defaulted to 'unchanged' (prior unknown)." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" } }