Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: RF-CRUDE-001 (macro_counterpressure)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-14T23:10:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-crude-001 6–24h: upside skew from geopolitical/shipping disruption risk keeping a risk-premium bid. 70 up accelerating 24h false 58
crude_oil B-crude-002 Macro/FX headwinds raise odds of choppy/range outcomes, reducing follow-through on upside spikes. 60 mixed stable 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-crude_oil-20260414T231000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-14T23:10:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude-001",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Over the next 6h\u201324h, crude benchmarks retain an upside skew from elevated geopolitical/shipping disruption risk (Hormuz / maritime incidents / sanctions enforcement) keeping a risk premium bid.",
 "probability_pct": 70,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_disruption",
 "opec_supply_policy",
 "national_oil_companies",
 "inventory_storage (risk-premium sensitivity)",
 "shipping/logistics constraints (maritime chokepoints)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-crude-002"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 82,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude-002",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Even with geopolitical risk premium, macro/FX headwinds (growth/recession-risk framing and USD strength) increase the odds of choppy/range outcomes and reduce follow-through on upside spikes.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "macro_demand (growth and recession-risk expectations)",
 "USD / rates expectations (DXY sensitivity)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-crude-001"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 63,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 88,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-crude-001",
 "B-crude-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 220,
 "B": 0,
 "C": 7,
 "D": 368,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_share_0_1": 0.78,
 "fresh_6_24h_share_0_1": 0.22,
 "fresh_24_72h_share_0_1": 0.0,
 "stale_gt_72h_share_0_1": 0.0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-CRUDE-001",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "type": "macro_counterpressure",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Macro demand / recession-risk framing and USD-related headwinds act as fresh counter-pressure, increasing chop risk and limiting trend persistence."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-CRUDE-002",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "type": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Geopolitical/shipping narratives can fade or reverse quickly; headline-driven risk premium can mean-revert without sustained physical disruption confirmation."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-CRUDE-003",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "type": "echo_concentration_in_secondary_lane",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Several VIP/risk-anomaly items are single-source; treated as secondary context and not allowed to drive state alone."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish watch-bias while fresh multi-source geopolitical/shipping disruption signals remain dominant and contradiction stays low."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Volatility watch if opposing macro/FX signals strengthen (more fresh, independent records) or if geopolitical items de-escalate rapidly."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Reversal watch if fresh (<=2h) credible de-escalation / supply-restoration signals appear in 2+ independent sources, or if contradiction ratio spikes materially."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
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 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 79,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 84,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 86,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 91,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 65,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 97,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 65,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 80,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 65,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 7,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=crude_oil.",
 "No explicit per-trend physics fields were provided in the gated payload; momentum/recency inferred from trend timestamps, temporal_profile.peak_bucket and evidence_recency_proxy spans.",
 "No admitted in-corpus contradiction objects detected; counterpressure primarily comes from cross-domain macro/FX drivers rather than direct opposing oil-specific evidence."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}