Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: RF-CRUDE-001 (macro_counterpressure)
- generated_at: 2026-04-14T23:10:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crude_oil | B-crude-001 | 6–24h: upside skew from geopolitical/shipping disruption risk keeping a risk-premium bid. | 70 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 58 |
| crude_oil | B-crude-002 | Macro/FX headwinds raise odds of choppy/range outcomes, reducing follow-through on upside spikes. | 60 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-crude_oil-20260414T231000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-14T23:10:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-crude-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Over the next 6h\u201324h, crude benchmarks retain an upside skew from elevated geopolitical/shipping disruption risk (Hormuz / maritime incidents / sanctions enforcement) keeping a risk premium bid.",
"probability_pct": 70,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_disruption",
"opec_supply_policy",
"national_oil_companies",
"inventory_storage (risk-premium sensitivity)",
"shipping/logistics constraints (maritime chokepoints)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-crude-002"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 82,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-crude-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Even with geopolitical risk premium, macro/FX headwinds (growth/recession-risk framing and USD strength) increase the odds of choppy/range outcomes and reduce follow-through on upside spikes.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"macro_demand (growth and recession-risk expectations)",
"USD / rates expectations (DXY sensitivity)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-crude-001"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 88,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-crude-001",
"B-crude-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 220,
"B": 0,
"C": 7,
"D": 368,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_share_0_1": 0.78,
"fresh_6_24h_share_0_1": 0.22,
"fresh_24_72h_share_0_1": 0.0,
"stale_gt_72h_share_0_1": 0.0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-CRUDE-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"type": "macro_counterpressure",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Macro demand / recession-risk framing and USD-related headwinds act as fresh counter-pressure, increasing chop risk and limiting trend persistence."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-CRUDE-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"type": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Geopolitical/shipping narratives can fade or reverse quickly; headline-driven risk premium can mean-revert without sustained physical disruption confirmation."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-CRUDE-003",
"market": "crude_oil",
"type": "echo_concentration_in_secondary_lane",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Several VIP/risk-anomaly items are single-source; treated as secondary context and not allowed to drive state alone."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish watch-bias while fresh multi-source geopolitical/shipping disruption signals remain dominant and contradiction stays low."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Volatility watch if opposing macro/FX signals strengthen (more fresh, independent records) or if geopolitical items de-escalate rapidly."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Reversal watch if fresh (<=2h) credible de-escalation / supply-restoration signals appear in 2+ independent sources, or if contradiction ratio spikes materially."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
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"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 7,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T04:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
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"acceleration_score": -6,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
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"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T06:00:00Z",
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T08:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T08:00:00Z",
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
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"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 79,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 84,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 86,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 91,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 65,
"bullish_pressure_score": 97,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 65,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 80,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 65,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 7,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=crude_oil.",
"No explicit per-trend physics fields were provided in the gated payload; momentum/recency inferred from trend timestamps, temporal_profile.peak_bucket and evidence_recency_proxy spans.",
"No admitted in-corpus contradiction objects detected; counterpressure primarily comes from cross-domain macro/FX drivers rather than direct opposing oil-specific evidence."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}