- Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: event_driven_volatility (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-14T07:10:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table | market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility | |---|---:|---|---:|---|---|---|---:|---:| | crude_oil | B-crude-001 | Geopolitical disruption + maritime chokepoint risk (Hormuz / Gulf routes) is increasing perceived supply-risk premium, supporting higher Brent crude futures. | 67 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 44 | | crude_oil | B-crude-002 | Regional refinery outages / interruptions and physical tightness headlines are being interpreted as near-term bullish for crude and product cracks, indirectly supporting Brent. | 58 | up | stable | 24h | false | 44 | | crude_oil | B-crude-003 | Macro headwinds (USD strength risk and slowdown chatter) are a secondary counterweight, limiting upside conviction rather than flipping direction. | 45 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 44 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-20260414T071000Z-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-14T07:10:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-crude-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Geopolitical disruption + maritime chokepoint risk (Hormuz / Gulf routes) is increasing perceived supply-risk premium, supporting higher Brent crude futures.",
"probability_pct": 67,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"maritime attacks / blockade narratives around Strait of Hormuz and adjacent routes",
"US Navy / regional military posture signals increasing transit-risk perception",
"shipping/logistics disruption risk feeding near-term risk premium"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"de-escalation / diplomacy headline flow (not present as strong counter-evidence in admitted set)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 76,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-crude-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Regional refinery outages / interruptions and physical tightness headlines are being interpreted as near-term bullish for crude and product cracks, indirectly supporting Brent.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"UAE/refinery outage and fuel supply interruption narratives",
"refining constraints increasing short-run scarcity framing"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"inventory-build / demand-softening narratives (present but weaker/less corroborated here)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-crude-003",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Macro headwinds (USD strength risk and slowdown chatter) are a secondary counterweight, limiting upside conviction rather than flipping direction.",
"probability_pct": 45,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"USD fluctuation narrative as a potential drag on dollar-priced commodities",
"economic slowdown / demand-risk chatter (thin / singleton signals)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"dominant fresh supply-risk premium narrative across multiple sources"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 40,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 86,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-crude-001",
"B-crude-002",
"B-crude-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 15,
"B": 0,
"C": 0,
"D": 3,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"evidence_items_0_6h": 10,
"evidence_items_6_24h": 5,
"evidence_items_24_72h": 0,
"evidence_items_over_72h": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"flag": "event_driven_volatility",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Narrative cluster dominated by geopolitics/chokepoints; direction bullish but prone to fast reversals on de-escalation headlines."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"flag": "macro_counterweight_present",
"severity": "low",
"details": "USD/macro slowdown chatter exists but is thinner than the supply-risk mass; treated as a cap on conviction."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Additional fresh confirmation of shipping disruption / chokepoint escalation or broad corroboration of physical tightness."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Rapid headline cadence around Hormuz / blockade / military actions implying gap-risk."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Two or more independent fresh (<=2h) de-escalation / supply-restoration signals that materially reduce disruption probability."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction rises sharply (mixed supply-risk vs confirmed demand shock) while fresh evidence density drops."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T08:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T09:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
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"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T09:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
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"velocity_score": 2,
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"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
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"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T12:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T13:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
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"velocity_score": 3,
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"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
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"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T14:00:00Z",
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"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T15:00:00Z",
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"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
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"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
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"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
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"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
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"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T22:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 57,
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"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 63,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 63,
"velocity_score": 3,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 66,
"bullish_pressure_score": 83,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 66,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 68,
"bullish_pressure_score": 85,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 68,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 77,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 70,
"bullish_pressure_score": 87,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 70,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 72,
"bullish_pressure_score": 89,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 72,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 79,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 72,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope locked to single market: crude_oil (explicit).",
"Directional mapping: supply disruption / chokepoint risk interpreted as bullish price-pressure for crude oil.",
"Timeseries bucket values are conservative reconstructions (per-record timestamp distribution not available in this payload); anchored to observed fresh-update windows and trend temporal profiles."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}