1. Snapshot
  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: event_driven_volatility (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-14T07:10:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
  1. Signal Table | market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility | |---|---:|---|---:|---|---|---|---:|---:| | crude_oil | B-crude-001 | Geopolitical disruption + maritime chokepoint risk (Hormuz / Gulf routes) is increasing perceived supply-risk premium, supporting higher Brent crude futures. | 67 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 44 | | crude_oil | B-crude-002 | Regional refinery outages / interruptions and physical tightness headlines are being interpreted as near-term bullish for crude and product cracks, indirectly supporting Brent. | 58 | up | stable | 24h | false | 44 | | crude_oil | B-crude-003 | Macro headwinds (USD strength risk and slowdown chatter) are a secondary counterweight, limiting upside conviction rather than flipping direction. | 45 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 44 |

  2. Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-20260414T071000Z-crude_oil",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-14T07:10:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude-001",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Geopolitical disruption + maritime chokepoint risk (Hormuz / Gulf routes) is increasing perceived supply-risk premium, supporting higher Brent crude futures.",
 "probability_pct": 67,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "maritime attacks / blockade narratives around Strait of Hormuz and adjacent routes",
 "US Navy / regional military posture signals increasing transit-risk perception",
 "shipping/logistics disruption risk feeding near-term risk premium"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "de-escalation / diplomacy headline flow (not present as strong counter-evidence in admitted set)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 76,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude-002",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Regional refinery outages / interruptions and physical tightness headlines are being interpreted as near-term bullish for crude and product cracks, indirectly supporting Brent.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "UAE/refinery outage and fuel supply interruption narratives",
 "refining constraints increasing short-run scarcity framing"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "inventory-build / demand-softening narratives (present but weaker/less corroborated here)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude-003",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Macro headwinds (USD strength risk and slowdown chatter) are a secondary counterweight, limiting upside conviction rather than flipping direction.",
 "probability_pct": 45,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "USD fluctuation narrative as a potential drag on dollar-priced commodities",
 "economic slowdown / demand-risk chatter (thin / singleton signals)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "dominant fresh supply-risk premium narrative across multiple sources"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 40,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 86,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-crude-001",
 "B-crude-002",
 "B-crude-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 15,
 "B": 0,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 3,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "evidence_items_0_6h": 10,
 "evidence_items_6_24h": 5,
 "evidence_items_24_72h": 0,
 "evidence_items_over_72h": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "flag": "event_driven_volatility",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Narrative cluster dominated by geopolitics/chokepoints; direction bullish but prone to fast reversals on de-escalation headlines."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "flag": "macro_counterweight_present",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "USD/macro slowdown chatter exists but is thinner than the supply-risk mass; treated as a cap on conviction."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Additional fresh confirmation of shipping disruption / chokepoint escalation or broad corroboration of physical tightness."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Rapid headline cadence around Hormuz / blockade / military actions implying gap-risk."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Two or more independent fresh (<=2h) de-escalation / supply-restoration signals that materially reduce disruption probability."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction rises sharply (mixed supply-risk vs confirmed demand shock) while fresh evidence density drops."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T09:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T09:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
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 "velocity_score": 2,
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T11:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T12:00:00Z",
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 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T15:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T15:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T17:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 3,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T22:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 52,
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 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
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 "velocity_score": 2,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 57,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
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 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 63,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 63,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 66,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 83,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 66,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 68,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 85,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 68,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 77,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 70,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 87,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 70,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-14T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 72,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 89,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 72,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 79,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 72,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 2,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope locked to single market: crude_oil (explicit).",
 "Directional mapping: supply disruption / chokepoint risk interpreted as bullish price-pressure for crude oil.",
 "Timeseries bucket values are conservative reconstructions (per-record timestamp distribution not available in this payload); anchored to observed fresh-update windows and trend temporal profiles."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}