Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker: uranium
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: data_sparsity (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-13 06:30 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim (trimmed) | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| uranium | B-UR-6H-001 | Uranium futures sentiment remains net supportive over the next 6 hours, driven by pro-nuclear policy and energy-security narratives. | 64% | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 44 |
| uranium | B-UR-24H-001 | Over the next 24 hours, sentiment stays constructive but is fragile due to thematic-to-price translation risk and lower-authority share. | 61% | up | stable | 24h | false | 44 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-uranium-2026-04-13T06:30:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-13T06:30:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium futures",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-6H-001",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Uranium futures sentiment remains net supportive over the next 6 hours, driven by fresh pro-nuclear policy/energy-security narratives and regulation/innovation coverage with low observed counterevidence in the admitted corpus.",
"probability_pct": 64,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"energy_security (fresh, multi-source)",
"nuclear_policy (fresh, multi-source)",
"nuclear_regulation_and_innovation (fresh, mixed-source)",
"reactor_demand narrative support via SMR/innovation coverage"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-24H-001",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Over the next 24 hours, uranium futures sentiment stays constructive but is somewhat fragile due to thematic-to-price translation risk and the corpus containing a large low-authority share despite meaningful Tier-A presence.",
"probability_pct": 61,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"broad nuclear/energy-security policy coverage (sustained)",
"geopolitical_supply_risk narrative background",
"uranium mining/industry developments coverage"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-UR-6H-001",
"B-UR-24H-001"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 54,
"B": 4,
"C": 17,
"D": 171,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_est": 1,
"fresh_6_24h_est": 1,
"stale_gt_24h_est": 1,
"note": "Mix is qualitative/estimated from trend-level recency proxies and samples; full per-record timestamp distribution not available to 6B input."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"flag": "data_sparsity",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Signal is strong at trend level, but 6B lacks full per-record timestamp granularity in this input slice, limiting timeseries bucket construction and increasing measurement fragility."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Several major narratives span >7 days; persistence is supportive but can lag sudden headline-driven flips."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Low observed counterevidence in the admitted set, but commodity pricing can react to single high-impact policy/supply headlines."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain constructive bias if next 2–6h window shows continued fresh supportive nuclear-policy/energy-security prints and no emergence of fresh opposing evidence (>=2 independent sources) within 2h."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate to reversal watch if contradiction ratio rises materially (fresh opposing evidence appears across multiple independent sources in <6h)."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Treat as volatility watch if a single structural policy/sanctions/supply announcement lands (hard invalidator) within the next 2h."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [],
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
"latest_inflection_strength": 0,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 0,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to uranium; single-market constraint enforced.",
"No explicit contradictions provided in admitted corpus; counterevidence treated as minimal.",
"State_change set to 'unchanged' because no prior state memory was provided to 6B in this input slice.",
"Hourly timeseries buckets omitted: full per-record timestamps were not available in the provided 5B slice; only trend-level recency proxies and small samples were present."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}