Snapshot

  • subject_area: Uranium futures
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker: uranium
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: data_sparsity (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-13 06:30 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-UR-6H-001 Uranium futures sentiment remains net supportive over the next 6 hours, driven by pro-nuclear policy and energy-security narratives. 64% up accelerating 6h false 44
uranium B-UR-24H-001 Over the next 24 hours, sentiment stays constructive but is fragile due to thematic-to-price translation risk and lower-authority share. 61% up stable 24h false 44

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-uranium-2026-04-13T06:30:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-13T06:30:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Uranium futures",
 "market_code": "uranium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "uranium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-6H-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Uranium futures sentiment remains net supportive over the next 6 hours, driven by fresh pro-nuclear policy/energy-security narratives and regulation/innovation coverage with low observed counterevidence in the admitted corpus.",
 "probability_pct": 64,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_security (fresh, multi-source)",
 "nuclear_policy (fresh, multi-source)",
 "nuclear_regulation_and_innovation (fresh, mixed-source)",
 "reactor_demand narrative support via SMR/innovation coverage"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-24H-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Over the next 24 hours, uranium futures sentiment stays constructive but is somewhat fragile due to thematic-to-price translation risk and the corpus containing a large low-authority share despite meaningful Tier-A presence.",
 "probability_pct": 61,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "broad nuclear/energy-security policy coverage (sustained)",
 "geopolitical_supply_risk narrative background",
 "uranium mining/industry developments coverage"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-UR-6H-001",
 "B-UR-24H-001"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 54,
 "B": 4,
 "C": 17,
 "D": 171,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_est": 1,
 "fresh_6_24h_est": 1,
 "stale_gt_24h_est": 1,
 "note": "Mix is qualitative/estimated from trend-level recency proxies and samples; full per-record timestamp distribution not available to 6B input."
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "flag": "data_sparsity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Signal is strong at trend level, but 6B lacks full per-record timestamp granularity in this input slice, limiting timeseries bucket construction and increasing measurement fragility."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Several major narratives span >7 days; persistence is supportive but can lag sudden headline-driven flips."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Low observed counterevidence in the admitted set, but commodity pricing can react to single high-impact policy/supply headlines."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain constructive bias if next 2–6h window shows continued fresh supportive nuclear-policy/energy-security prints and no emergence of fresh opposing evidence (>=2 independent sources) within 2h."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate to reversal watch if contradiction ratio rises materially (fresh opposing evidence appears across multiple independent sources in <6h)."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Treat as volatility watch if a single structural policy/sanctions/supply announcement lands (hard invalidator) within the next 2h."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [],
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 0,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 10,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 0,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to uranium; single-market constraint enforced.",
 "No explicit contradictions provided in admitted corpus; counterevidence treated as minimal.",
 "State_change set to 'unchanged' because no prior state memory was provided to 6B in this input slice.",
 "Hourly timeseries buckets omitted: full per-record timestamps were not available in the provided 5B slice; only trend-level recency proxies and small samples were present."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}