Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker: silver
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: macro_flip_risk (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-13 19:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-silver-24h-001 Over the next 24h, silver sentiment remains biased upward as macro rate-expectation narratives and investment/ETF-flow attention stay supportive, with industrial-demand narratives (solar/manufacturing) providing an additional tailwind. 62 up stable 24h false 46
silver B-silver-6h-001 Over the next 6h, silver sentiment is modestly positive but volatility-sensitive; the signal supports mild upside / buy-the-dip behaviour unless a sharp USD-strength/real-rate impulse emerges. 58 up accelerating 6h false 46

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-silver-2026-04-13T19:00:00Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-13T19:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Silver futures", "market_code": "silver" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 69, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "silver", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "silver" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-silver-24h-001", "market": "silver", "claim": "Over the next 24h, silver sentiment remains biased upward as macro rate-expectation narratives and investment/ETF-flow attention stay supportive, with industrial-demand narratives (solar/manufacturing) providing an additional tailwind.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Rate-expectation / real-rate narrative supportive for precious metals", "Investment flows attention (silver ETF/flows narrative present)", "Industrial demand framing (solar/manufacturing growth) supportive" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Mine development/exploration narratives imply potential future supply response (medium-term overhang)", "Regulatory/legal mining headlines add uncertainty and can create whipsaw risk" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 69, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-silver-6h-001", "market": "silver", "claim": "Over the next 6h, silver sentiment is modestly positive but volatility-sensitive; the signal supports mild upside / buy-the-dip behaviour unless a sharp USD-strength/real-rate impulse emerges.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Fresh macro-linked updates clustered inside the last trading day", "Broad, multi-source reinforcement across macro + industrial + flows narratives" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Thin single-source VIP operational items (echo-risk) that can mislead short-horizon sentiment", "Macro narrative can flip quickly (policy-speak sensitivity)" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "silver", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 82, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 69, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-silver-24h-001", "B-silver-6h-001" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 214, "B": 47, "C": 14, "D": 308, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h_est": 22, "fresh_6_24h_est": 38, "stale_24_72h_est": 14, "stale_gt72h_est": 18 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "market": "silver", "flag": "macro_flip_risk", "severity": "medium", "detail": "A large share of admitted mass is macro/rates-expectations driven; these narratives can reverse quickly on new policy or inflation surprises." }, { "market": "silver", "flag": "supply_overhang_background", "severity": "low", "detail": "Mine development/exploration narratives add a medium-term supply-response overhang that can dampen follow-through if demand narratives stall." }, { "market": "silver", "flag": "single_source_echo_risk", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Multiple VIP/risk items are single-source; they are treated as low-weight and can create short-horizon noise." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "silver", "confidence": "high", "action": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish watch while fresh macro+flows narratives remain supportive and no fresh opposing corpus appears." }, { "market": "silver", "confidence": "medium", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if rates/FX narratives spike (sudden USD-strength or real-rate jump signals)." }, { "market": "silver", "confidence": "medium", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "Upgrade to reversal watch if a fresh, independent opposing cluster appears within a 2h window (2+ sources) that materially raises contradiction." }, { "market": "silver", "confidence": "low", "action": "stay_flat", "trigger_condition": "Only if contradiction rises materially AND fresh evidence becomes sparse (data thinning) within the next cycle." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "silver" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 19, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 35, "net_sentiment_score": 19, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 19, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 35, "net_sentiment_score": 19, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 35, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 21, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 21, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 21, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 21, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 23, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 33, "net_sentiment_score": 23, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 51, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 33, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 51, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 33, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 33, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 33, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 33, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 27, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 32, "net_sentiment_score": 27, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 27, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 32, "net_sentiment_score": 27, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 32, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 47, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 29, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 32, "net_sentiment_score": 29, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 47, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 29, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 32, "net_sentiment_score": 29, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 31, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 31, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 31, "net_sentiment_score": 31, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 31, "net_sentiment_score": 31, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 32, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 18, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 6, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "No explicit counter-direction contradiction records were provided; reversal risk is driven primarily by macro sensitivity and mixed driver composition (demand/flows vs supply overhang).", "State-change set to new_bullish due to unavailable prior directional memory in the provided payload." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }