- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: natural_gas
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: headline_sensitivity (RF-NG-001)
- generated_at: 2026-04-13T13:14:46Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-001 |
Near-term geopolitical/maritime-security risk headlines are adding a risk premium to global gas/LNG flows, biasing natural gas futures upward. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
67 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-002 |
Infrastructure disruption narratives (pipelines/utility outages) are being interpreted as supply reliability risk, supporting an upside skew. |
57 |
up |
stable |
6h |
false |
67 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-003 |
Demand-side direction (weather-driven consumption, storage trajectory) is not clearly resolved in this cycle; if demand softness dominates, the upside risk premium could fade quickly. |
48 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
67 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_natural_gas_2026-04-13T13:14:46Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-13T13:14:46Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term geopolitical/maritime-security risk headlines are adding a risk premium to global gas/LNG flows, biasing natural gas futures upward.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"energy_geopolitics",
"lng_export_flows",
"pipeline_infrastructure"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Limited direct, fresh counter-signal present in the admitted corpus; main risk is fast de-escalation/mean-reversion rather than explicit opposing evidence."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Infrastructure disruption narratives (pipelines/utility outages) are being interpreted as supply reliability risk, supporting an upside skew.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"pipeline_infrastructure",
"production_outages"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Single-source/low-diversity operational items increase false-positive risk."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 45,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-003",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Demand-side direction (weather-driven consumption, storage trajectory) is not clearly resolved in this cycle; if demand softness dominates, the upside risk premium could fade quickly.",
"probability_pct": 48,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"seasonal_weather_demand",
"storage_levels"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Current admitted signals are more supply/geopolitics-weighted than weather/storage-weighted, so this remains a gap-driven risk rather than observed counterevidence."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 44,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 40,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 69,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002",
"B-NG-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 6,
"B": 0,
"C": 0,
"D": 3,
"U": 0,
"count_basis": "signal_level_non_deduped_estimate"
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_signals": 3,
"fresh_6_24h_signals": 2,
"stale_24_72h_signals": 2,
"stale_gt_72h_signals": 0
},
"directional_score_0_to_100_signed": 34,
"regime_state": "loosening",
"actual_counterevidence_score_0_100": 16,
"reversal_triggered": false,
"reversal_evidence_summary": [
"No explicit fresh opposing-direction evidence cluster detected; reversal risk is driven by headline sensitivity and potential fast de-escalation."
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "RF-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"type": "headline_sensitivity",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Directional bias is heavily driven by geopolitics/infrastructure narratives, which can mean-revert quickly on de-escalation."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"type": "fundamental_driver_gap",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Storage/weather/production balance signals are underrepresented relative to geopolitical signals in this cycle; increases fragility."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-NG-003",
"market": "natural_gas",
"type": "single_source_operational_noise",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Some infrastructure/utility disruption items are single-source; treat as higher false-positive risk until corroborated."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Additional independent confirmations of LNG flow disruption / pipeline outage escalation inside the next 6\u201324h window without matching demand-softness counterflow."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Credible de-escalation or restoration headlines emerge and cluster (2+ independent fresh records) within a 2\u20136h window."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises materially (mixed direction claims) while headline cadence remains elevated."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 4,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 4,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 3,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -11,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 7,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 21,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 7,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 21,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 7,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 21,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 9,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 23,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 29,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 13,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 31,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 72,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 72,
"velocity_score": 54,
"acceleration_score": 49,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": -18,
"acceleration_score": -72,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": -16,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 14,
"acceleration_score": 16,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 72,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 8,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 14,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 7,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Scope locked to single market: natural_gas (explicit).",
"Most admitted signals are geopolitics/infrastructure-linked; direct storage/weather balance evidence is sparse in provided corpus.",
"Prior market state not provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' with unknown_prior context."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}