Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-NG-001
  • generated_at: 2026-04-13T12:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-001 Elevated Middle East geopolitical and maritime-security risk is increasing perceived LNG supply-disruption risk, supporting a near-term risk premium... 63 up accelerating 24h false 52
natural_gas B-NG-002 Infrastructure failure / pipeline disruption narratives are adding tail-risk to near-term deliverability expectations, modestly bullish for gas... 57 up stable 24h false 52
natural_gas B-NG-003 Signals tied to Qatar/QatarEnergy and broader LNG system responses imply some supply-side resilience that could cap or fade extreme upside... 44 down fading 24h false 52

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "cis_natural_gas_2026-04-13T12:00:00Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-13T12:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Natural gas futures", "market_code": "natural_gas" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 67, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 52, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "natural_gas", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "natural_gas" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-NG-001", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "Elevated Middle East geopolitical and maritime-security risk is increasing perceived LNG supply-disruption risk, supporting a near-term risk premium for natural gas-linked pricing.", "probability_pct": 63, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "energy_geopolitics", "lng_export_flows", "pipeline_infrastructure" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-NG-003" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-NG-002", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "Infrastructure failure / pipeline disruption narratives are adding tail-risk to near-term deliverability expectations, modestly bullish for gas price volatility and upside skew.", "probability_pct": 57, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "pipeline_infrastructure", "production_outages" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 61, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" }, { "belief_id": "B-NG-003", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "Signals tied to Qatar/QatarEnergy and broader LNG system responses imply some supply-side resilience that could cap or fade extreme upside if no new disruption is confirmed.", "probability_pct": 44, "direction": "down", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "lng_export_flows", "production_outages" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-NG-001" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 46, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 67, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "natural_gas", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-NG-001", "B-NG-002", "B-NG-003" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 17, "B": 2, "C": 1, "D": 26, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h_est": 10, "fresh_6_24h_est": 18, "stale_24_72h_est": 8, "stale_gt72h_est": 4 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-001", "market": "natural_gas", "type": "narrative_whipsaw", "severity": "medium", "details": "Directional support is dominated by geopolitics/maritime-risk narratives rather than direct US storage/weather/production datapoints; prone to headline-driven reversals." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-002", "market": "natural_gas", "type": "data_sparsity", "severity": "medium", "details": "Limited explicit opposing-signal bookkeeping and limited per-record timestamp availability in this input constrain precision of reversal detection and timeseries attribution." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-003", "market": "natural_gas", "type": "contradiction_spike_watch", "severity": "low", "details": "Some supply-resilience framing (e.g., Qatar/QatarEnergy-linked) exists; monitor for fresh confirmation that would increase counterevidence score." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "natural_gas", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If additional fresh (<=6h) independent signals reinforce LNG disruption / maritime risk without offsetting supply-resilience updates, bullish bias remains supported." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If fresh counterevidence emerges (e.g., confirmed de-escalation / restored routes / explicit supply additions) and directional score drops below +20, shift to neutral_mixed." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "Geopolitical/infrastructure narrative remains active; expect elevated event-risk regardless of direction." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "action": "stay_flat", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Only if directional mass decays (staleness dominates) and conviction falls below 45 without fresh catalysts." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "natural_gas" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 24, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 43, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 14, "bullish_pressure_score": 25, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 14, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 26, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 16, "bullish_pressure_score": 27, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 16, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 16, "bullish_pressure_score": 28, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 16, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 17, "bullish_pressure_score": 29, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 17, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 30, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 19, "bullish_pressure_score": 31, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 19, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 21, "bullish_pressure_score": 34, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 21, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 35, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 23, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 23, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 37, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 40, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 51, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 42, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 46, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 31, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 50, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 39, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 39, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 7, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 9, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "fragility_score_0_100": 41, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 41, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 16, "net_sentiment_score": 41, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": -10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 7, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 16, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 47, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 39, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 16, "net_sentiment_score": 39, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 16, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 41, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 16, "net_sentiment_score": 41, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 16, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 45, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 6, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } } }