Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold futures (GC)
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker: GC
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: data_sparsity (severity: high)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-13T23:59:59Z
  • sentiment_word: Reversal-Risk
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-gold-001 Gold futures sentiment is not directionally tradable: gold-mapped evidence is below threshold and largely stale, implying near-term mixed/range behaviour. 55 mixed fading 24h false 78
gold B-gold-002 Stale, single-thread headlines about physical/logistics/trade frictions could add volatility and asymmetric upside risk, but are not fresh enough to carry conviction. 35 up fading 24h false 78

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-gold-20260413T235959Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-13T23:59:59Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Gold futures (GC)",
 "market_code": "gold"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 20,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "gold",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-gold-001",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Gold futures sentiment is not directionally tradable from the admitted corpus: gold-mapped evidence is below threshold and largely stale, implying near-term mixed/range behaviour.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "data_sparsity",
 "stale_evidence_overhang"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 25,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 20,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-gold-002",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Stale, single-thread headlines about physical/logistics/trade frictions in gold markets could add volatility and asymmetric upside risk, but are not fresh enough to carry conviction.",
 "probability_pct": 35,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "supply_chain",
 "physical_gold_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "staleness_gt_72h",
 "single_source_concentration"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 20,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 25,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 18,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 20,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low",
 "freshness_confidence": "low",
 "catalyst_type": "unclear",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-gold-001",
 "B-gold-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 1,
 "B": 0,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 1,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 0,
 "fresh_6_24h": 0,
 "fresh_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_gt_72h": 2,
 "unmapped_signals_present": true
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag": "data_sparsity",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "details": "Gold-mapped admitted evidence count < min_evidence_threshold (3); directional output suppressed."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "details": "Most gold-mapped items are >72h old (latest gold-mapped publish ~2026-03-09), strongly downweighted."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "echo_concentration",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Gold-mapped items include singleton/low-diversity sources; increases fragility and reduces conviction."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "stay_flat until >=3 fresh (<=72h) gold-mapped, multi-source signals align directionally."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "volatility_watch if new (<=24h) gold-specific logistics/supply disruption evidence appears from 2+ independent sources."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "reversal_watch if a fresh macro driver (real rates/USD) is explicitly tied to gold direction by multiple sources."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "hard_de_risk_watch when fragility remains >=70 and evidence remains stale/sparse."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": [
 "gold"
 ]
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T01:00:00Z",
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T01:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T23:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 0,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 0,
 "cross_domain_merges": 1,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": true,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly: gold.",
 "Gold-mapped admitted evidence < min_evidence_threshold=3; direction suppressed to neutral_mixed per flight_plan.",
 "Gold-mapped items detected are predominantly stale (early March 2026), triggering stale suppression and high fragility.",
 "Many non-gold macro/geopolitical items exist but were not force-mapped to gold due to strict alias mapping policy."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}