Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold futures
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: data_sparsity
  • generated_at: 2026-04-13T08:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Unstable
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-gold-001 Gold futures near-term direction is neutral/mixed because gold-specific evidence in the admitted corpus is thin and stale versus the requested 6h/24h horizon. 58% mixed fading 24h false 67
gold B-gold-002 Operational/distribution frictions in physical gold trade (traceability, routing, logistics) may add episodic risk-premium, but current corpus support is single/low-diversity and not recent. 42% up fading 24h false 67

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-gold-20260413T080000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-13T08:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Gold futures",
 "market_code": "gold"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 25,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "gold",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "regime_state": "rangebound",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-gold-001",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Gold futures near-term direction is neutral/mixed because gold-specific evidence in the admitted corpus is thin and stale versus the requested 6h/24h horizon.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "data_sparsity",
 "stale_context_overhang"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 35,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 20,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-gold-002",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Operational/distribution frictions in physical gold trade (traceability, routing, logistics) may add episodic risk-premium, but current corpus support is single/low-diversity and not recent.",
 "probability_pct": 42,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "physical_gold_demand",
 "geopolitical_risk",
 "trade_logistics"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "lack_of_recent_confirmation_in_last_72h"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 28,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 25,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 32,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 25,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low",
 "freshness_confidence": "low",
 "catalyst_type": "unclear",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-gold-001",
 "B-gold-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 1,
 "B": 0,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 1,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_24h": 0,
 "mid_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_over_72h": 2
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "Gold-mapped signals < min_evidence_threshold (3) for requested 6h/24h horizons; direction suppressed to neutral_mixed."
 },
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "Most gold-relevant evidence timestamps are from 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09 (>72h), strongly downweighted."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Broad geopolitics present in corpus but mostly unmapped to gold by strict alias rules; risk of sudden re-coupling if gold-specific headlines return."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Until >=3 fresh (<=72h) gold-mapped signals with coherent direction appear."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh gold-specific geopolitical/logistics headlines emerge within <=2h (late-breaking window), reassess for kill-switch or directional break."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If a new, high-authority gold driver (real rates/USD/central bank flows) arrives opposing any emerging direction, flag reversal risk."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T08:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T09:00:00Z",
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T07:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T07:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 0,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 0,
 "cross_domain_merges": 0,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": true,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope locked to single_market=gold (explicit).",
 "Gold-mapped admitted items were limited and stale; min_evidence_threshold=3 not met for gold-specific, horizon-relevant signals.",
 "Most corpus trends were geopolitical but did not contain gold/xau/bullion aliases; unmapped_signal_count_high (geopolitics retained only as contextual risk, not as gold-direction evidence).",
 "Timeseries buckets show no gold-mapped evidence in last 24h window; conservative neutral buckets emitted."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}