Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: copper
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: trade_policy_volatility_amplifier
  • generated_at: 2026-04-13T15:30:09Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-CU-001 Near-term copper sentiment is supported by electrification/EV/grid investment narratives that imply firm demand expectations. 63 up accelerating 24h false 41
copper B-CU-002 Supply-side disruption risk in major producing regions (e.g., Chile/Codelco-related disruption narratives) is being priced as supportive for copper. 60 up stable 24h false 41
copper B-CU-003 Trade-policy headlines are a volatility amplifier for copper over the next 6–24h, increasing whipsaw risk even if base sentiment is constructive. 58 mixed stable 6h false 41

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260413T153009Z-copper",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-13T15:30:09Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CU-001",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Near-term copper sentiment is supported by electrification/EV/grid investment narratives that imply firm demand expectations.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_transition_demand",
 "industrial_demand",
 "china_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "trade_policy_uncertainty_can_raise_volatility"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 65,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CU-002",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Supply-side disruption risk in major producing regions (e.g., Chile/Codelco-related disruption narratives) is being priced as supportive for copper.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply_disruption",
 "inventory_exchange_stocks"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "macro_growth_fear_can_offset_supply_premium"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CU-003",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Trade-policy headlines are a volatility amplifier for copper over the next 6\u201324h, increasing whipsaw risk even if base sentiment is constructive.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "trade_policy",
 "china_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 75,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 84,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-CU-001",
 "B-CU-002",
 "B-CU-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 114,
 "B": 14,
 "C": 3,
 "D": 191,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_evidence_0_6h": 6,
 "fresh_evidence_6_24h": 5,
 "stale_evidence_gt_24h": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag": "trade_policy_volatility_amplifier",
 "market": "copper",
 "level": "medium",
 "note": "Trade-policy narratives present; can increase short-horizon whipsaw without being direct counter-evidence."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "thematic_to_price_translation_gap",
 "market": "copper",
 "level": "medium",
 "note": "Several drivers are medium/long-horizon demand narratives; near-term pricing response may be nonlinear."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh supportive demand/supply headlines continue to cluster (next 6h) without fresh opposing macro-demand shock signals."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If trade-policy headlines accelerate intraday (multiple independent items in <6h)."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh opposing evidence emerges (<=2h) from 2+ independent sources that implies demand impairment or rapid inventory rebuild."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T17:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T17:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T18:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T19:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T20:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T21:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T22:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T00:00:00Z",
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T01:00:00Z",
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T02:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
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 "velocity_score": 1,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": 3,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T07:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T08:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T10:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T10:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T11:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": 3,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T12:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 43,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 49,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 49,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 52,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 3,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 9,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit contradictory (opposing-direction) evidence was present in the admitted corpus; reversal_risk is therefore driven mainly by volatility/whipsaw considerations rather than counterevidence mass.",
 "state_change uses unknown prior state fallback; emitted as new_bullish for state-machine continuity."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}