Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
  • generated_at: 2026-04-13T07:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B1-demand-electrification Near-term copper demand tone remains supported by electrification/grid modernisation and broader infrastructure buildout narratives. 66 up accelerating 24h false 48
copper B2-supply-disruption-upside Mine supply-disruption risk (Chile/Codelco and major producers) keeps upside risk elevated in the next 6–24 hours. 62 up stable 24h false 48
copper B3-trade-policy-volatility-cap Trade-policy uncertainty (US/EU/China) increases short-horizon volatility and can cap immediate upside follow-through. 58 mixed accelerating 6h false 48

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260413-copper-0001",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-13T07:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1-demand-electrification",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Near-term copper demand tone remains supported by electrification/grid modernisation and broader infrastructure buildout narratives.",
 "probability_pct": 66,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_transition_demand",
 "industrial_demand",
 "china_policy",
 "inventory_exchange_stocks"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B3-trade-policy-volatility-cap"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2-supply-disruption-upside",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Mine supply-disruption risk (Chile/Codelco and major producers) keeps upside risk elevated in the next 6\u201324 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply_disruption",
 "inventory_exchange_stocks"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3-trade-policy-volatility-cap",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Trade-policy uncertainty (US/EU/China) increases short-horizon volatility and can cap immediate upside follow-through.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "trade_policy",
 "china_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B1-demand-electrification"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1-demand-electrification",
 "B2-supply-disruption-upside"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 190,
 "B": 20,
 "C": 8,
 "D": 350,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 2,
 "fresh_6_24h": 2,
 "fresh_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_gt_72h": 1,
 "note": "Freshness mix approximated from newest timestamps embedded in admitted trend evidence bundles."
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Several dominant narratives are multi-week themes; conviction remains primarily supported by fresh confirmations, but persistence risk remains."
 },
 {
 "flag": "trade_policy_volatility",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Trade-policy driver is present and can swing quickly; monitor for fresh counter-direction evidence."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_authority_share",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Directional mass is broad, but a meaningful share of supporting coverage is lower-tier; treat as higher-fragility than a fully Tier-A-driven impulse."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional fresh (<=6h) corroborating demand/supply-tightness signals arrive without matching fresh counterevidence."
 },
 {
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If trade-policy headlines increase contradiction ratio or introduce 2+ independent opposing signals inside 6h."
 },
 {
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If a late-breaking (<=2h) opposing cluster forms (2+ independent records) causing a material contradiction spike."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
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 }
 ]
 },
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 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T04:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T04:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T05:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T05:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T06:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T06:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 9,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Prior-state unavailable (no trend_state_memory / prior market_state_table); state_change left as 'unchanged' to avoid asserting a flip.",
 "No explicit contradictory records provided in admitted corpus; reversal/kill-switch logic not triggered."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}