Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
- generated_at: 2026-04-13T07:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| copper |
B1-demand-electrification |
Near-term copper demand tone remains supported by electrification/grid modernisation and broader infrastructure buildout narratives. |
66 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
48 |
| copper |
B2-supply-disruption-upside |
Mine supply-disruption risk (Chile/Codelco and major producers) keeps upside risk elevated in the next 6–24 hours. |
62 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
48 |
| copper |
B3-trade-policy-volatility-cap |
Trade-policy uncertainty (US/EU/China) increases short-horizon volatility and can cap immediate upside follow-through. |
58 |
mixed |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
48 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260413-copper-0001",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-13T07:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1-demand-electrification",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Near-term copper demand tone remains supported by electrification/grid modernisation and broader infrastructure buildout narratives.",
"probability_pct": 66,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"energy_transition_demand",
"industrial_demand",
"china_policy",
"inventory_exchange_stocks"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B3-trade-policy-volatility-cap"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B2-supply-disruption-upside",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Mine supply-disruption risk (Chile/Codelco and major producers) keeps upside risk elevated in the next 6\u201324 hours.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply_disruption",
"inventory_exchange_stocks"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B3-trade-policy-volatility-cap",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Trade-policy uncertainty (US/EU/China) increases short-horizon volatility and can cap immediate upside follow-through.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"trade_policy",
"china_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B1-demand-electrification"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1-demand-electrification",
"B2-supply-disruption-upside"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 190,
"B": 20,
"C": 8,
"D": 350,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 2,
"fresh_6_24h": 2,
"fresh_24_72h": 0,
"stale_gt_72h": 1,
"note": "Freshness mix approximated from newest timestamps embedded in admitted trend evidence bundles."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Several dominant narratives are multi-week themes; conviction remains primarily supported by fresh confirmations, but persistence risk remains."
},
{
"flag": "trade_policy_volatility",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Trade-policy driver is present and can swing quickly; monitor for fresh counter-direction evidence."
},
{
"flag": "low_authority_share",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Directional mass is broad, but a meaningful share of supporting coverage is lower-tier; treat as higher-fragility than a fully Tier-A-driven impulse."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If additional fresh (<=6h) corroborating demand/supply-tightness signals arrive without matching fresh counterevidence."
},
{
"action": "volatility_watch",
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If trade-policy headlines increase contradiction ratio or introduce 2+ independent opposing signals inside 6h."
},
{
"action": "reversal_watch",
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If a late-breaking (<=2h) opposing cluster forms (2+ independent records) causing a material contradiction spike."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
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"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T09:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T10:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
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"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T11:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T12:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
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"velocity_score": 4,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T05:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T06:00:00Z",
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"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": true,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": [
{
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"directional_score_signed": 27,
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},
{
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},
{
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"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T02:30:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 29,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T03:00:00Z",
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},
{
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T04:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T04:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T05:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T05:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T06:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T06:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 9,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Prior-state unavailable (no trend_state_memory / prior market_state_table); state_change left as 'unchanged' to avoid asserting a flip.",
"No explicit contradictory records provided in admitted corpus; reversal/kill-switch logic not triggered."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}