Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: coffee
- regime_state: rangebound
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-coffee-ambiguous-direction (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-13T20:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Mixed
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coffee | B-coffee-001 | Demand narrative supportive (retail expansion, product innovation) but not translating into a clear directional price consensus. | 58 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 65 |
| coffee | B-coffee-002 | Shipping/logistics and geopolitical risks elevating volatility, creating asymmetric gap-risk over steady trend. | 62 | mixed | accelerating | 6h | false | 65 |
| coffee | B-coffee-003 | Input/production-cost inflation adding mild upward bias, diluted by cross-commodity effects and unclear pass-through. | 55 | up | fading | 24h | false | 65 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-coffee-2026-04-13T20:00:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-13T20:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 71,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "rangebound",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Demand/consumption narrative remains supportive (retail expansion, product innovation), but it is not translating into a clean directional price consensus in the admitted signal set.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Retail expansion / specialty coffee shop growth narratives",
"Product innovation / category growth narratives"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Logistics/geopolitical disruption narratives that can impair demand or reroute flows",
"Input-cost pressure narratives that raise uncertainty around pass-through and margins"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Shipping/logistics and geopolitical risk narratives are elevating volatility risk for coffee flows, producing asymmetric headline sensitivity (gap-risk) rather than steady trend confidence.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Maritime route / logistics disruption narratives",
"Geopolitical escalation risk (trade and routing uncertainty)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"If disruptions de-escalate quickly, volatility premium can fade"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 49,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 76,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-003",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Rising agricultural input-cost and production-cost narratives are adding mild upward price-pressure bias, but the effect is diluted by cross-commodity generality and unclear coffee-specific pass-through.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Input cost inflation narratives",
"Production cost pressure narratives"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"If costs are absorbed downstream or offset by productivity, price-pressure impact diminishes"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 46,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 69,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 71,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "unclear",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-001",
"B-coffee-002",
"B-coffee-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 36,
"B": 3,
"C": 2,
"D": 78,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 6,
"fresh_6_24h": 16,
"fresh_24_72h": 28,
"stale_gt_72h": 20
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "RF-coffee-ambiguous-direction",
"market": "coffee",
"risk_type": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Multiple fresh themes are present (demand growth, logistics risk, input costs) but do not cohere into a single directional price thesis; neutral/mixed state retained."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-coffee-volatility-overhang",
"market": "coffee",
"risk_type": "contradiction_spike",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Cross-domain drivers imply offsetting impacts (risk-off macro/logistics vs supportive demand narratives), raising reversal/whipsaw likelihood on new headlines."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-coffee-singleton-echo-risk",
"market": "coffee",
"risk_type": "data_sparsity",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "VIP-lane singleton items exist (echo-risk flagged in source bundles); treated as low-weight and not used to force direction."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "high",
"action_label": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain neutral bias while directional score remains within \u00b120 and contradiction/mixed-driver profile persists."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate watch if logistics/geopolitical narratives add fresh corroboration within the next 2\u20136 hours (multiple independent sources) or if input-cost shock narratives broaden."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate if a new, coffee-specific supply disruption or weather/crop-disease signal emerges with high freshness (\u22642h) and multi-source confirmation."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 56,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 58,
"net_sentiment_score": -8,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 55,
"net_sentiment_score": -5,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 52,
"net_sentiment_score": -2,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.51,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 48,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T03:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": 3,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T04:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 14,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -8,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 1,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 9,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Scope locked to single-market: coffee.",
"Several admitted signals are cross-domain (logistics/input costs) and can affect coffee, but mapping to directional price impact is not one-to-one; direction kept neutral_mixed.",
"VIP-lane singleton signals marked echo-risk were downweighted and not used to force direction.",
"No explicit contradiction objects provided; 'mixed' state is driven by offsetting driver classes rather than direct counter-claims.",
"Some evidence timestamps in 5B extend later on 2026-04-13 than the workflow0 timestamp (00:00Z); synthesis timestamp set to 20:00Z to reflect freshest admitted evidence."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}