Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: coffee
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-coffee-ambiguous-direction (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-13T20:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-001 Demand narrative supportive (retail expansion, product innovation) but not translating into a clear directional price consensus. 58 mixed stable 24h false 65
coffee B-coffee-002 Shipping/logistics and geopolitical risks elevating volatility, creating asymmetric gap-risk over steady trend. 62 mixed accelerating 6h false 65
coffee B-coffee-003 Input/production-cost inflation adding mild upward bias, diluted by cross-commodity effects and unclear pass-through. 55 up fading 24h false 65

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-coffee-2026-04-13T20:00:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-13T20:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 71,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "rangebound",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Demand/consumption narrative remains supportive (retail expansion, product innovation), but it is not translating into a clean directional price consensus in the admitted signal set.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Retail expansion / specialty coffee shop growth narratives",
 "Product innovation / category growth narratives"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Logistics/geopolitical disruption narratives that can impair demand or reroute flows",
 "Input-cost pressure narratives that raise uncertainty around pass-through and margins"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Shipping/logistics and geopolitical risk narratives are elevating volatility risk for coffee flows, producing asymmetric headline sensitivity (gap-risk) rather than steady trend confidence.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Maritime route / logistics disruption narratives",
 "Geopolitical escalation risk (trade and routing uncertainty)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "If disruptions de-escalate quickly, volatility premium can fade"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 49,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 76,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-003",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Rising agricultural input-cost and production-cost narratives are adding mild upward price-pressure bias, but the effect is diluted by cross-commodity generality and unclear coffee-specific pass-through.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Input cost inflation narratives",
 "Production cost pressure narratives"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "If costs are absorbed downstream or offset by productivity, price-pressure impact diminishes"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 46,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "stable",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 69,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 71,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "unclear",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-001",
 "B-coffee-002",
 "B-coffee-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 36,
 "B": 3,
 "C": 2,
 "D": 78,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 6,
 "fresh_6_24h": 16,
 "fresh_24_72h": 28,
 "stale_gt_72h": 20
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-coffee-ambiguous-direction",
 "market": "coffee",
 "risk_type": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Multiple fresh themes are present (demand growth, logistics risk, input costs) but do not cohere into a single directional price thesis; neutral/mixed state retained."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-coffee-volatility-overhang",
 "market": "coffee",
 "risk_type": "contradiction_spike",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Cross-domain drivers imply offsetting impacts (risk-off macro/logistics vs supportive demand narratives), raising reversal/whipsaw likelihood on new headlines."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-coffee-singleton-echo-risk",
 "market": "coffee",
 "risk_type": "data_sparsity",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "VIP-lane singleton items exist (echo-risk flagged in source bundles); treated as low-weight and not used to force direction."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action_label": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain neutral bias while directional score remains within \u00b120 and contradiction/mixed-driver profile persists."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate watch if logistics/geopolitical narratives add fresh corroboration within the next 2\u20136 hours (multiple independent sources) or if input-cost shock narratives broaden."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate if a new, coffee-specific supply disruption or weather/crop-disease signal emerges with high freshness (\u22642h) and multi-source confirmation."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 56,
 "net_sentiment_score": -6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 58,
 "net_sentiment_score": -8,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T23:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 55,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T23:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": -2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 52,
 "net_sentiment_score": -2,
 "velocity_score": 3,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.51,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 50,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 48,
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 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T02:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T03:00:00Z",
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 {
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T05:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T10:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T11:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T12:00:00Z",
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T13:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
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 "velocity_score": -2,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T14:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 46,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 14,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -8,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 1,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 9,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Scope locked to single-market: coffee.",
 "Several admitted signals are cross-domain (logistics/input costs) and can affect coffee, but mapping to directional price impact is not one-to-one; direction kept neutral_mixed.",
 "VIP-lane singleton signals marked echo-risk were downweighted and not used to force direction.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects provided; 'mixed' state is driven by offsetting driver classes rather than direct counter-claims.",
 "Some evidence timestamps in 5B extend later on 2026-04-13 than the workflow0 timestamp (00:00Z); synthesis timestamp set to 20:00Z to reflect freshest admitted evidence."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}