Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: crude_oil
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: headline_driven_risk_premium
  • generated_at: 2026-04-13T07:01:53Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-crude-001 Geopolitical/maritime disruption narratives are applying upward risk-premium pressure to Brent-linked crude pricing over the next 6h–24h window. 63 up accelerating 24h false 61
crude_oil B-crude-002 Near-term volatility is elevated; the dominant impulse is bullish, but the thesis is fragile because it is headline-driven and can fade quickly if tensions ease. 70 mixed stable 6h false 61
crude_oil B-crude-003 Macro cross-currents (USD fluctuation focus) may cap follow-through and raise reversal risk if the dollar strengthens into the next session. 52 flat fading 24h false 61

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-crude_oil-20260413T070153Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-13T07:01:53Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude-001",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Geopolitical/maritime disruption narratives are applying upward risk-premium pressure to Brent-linked crude pricing over the next 6h\u201324h window.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_disruption",
 "shipping_route_risk / maritime_chokepoints",
 "security_incident escalation cadence",
 "risk-on headlines clustering in last ~6h"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "No strong fresh de-escalation / supply-restoration counter-narrative in admitted corpus"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude-002",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Near-term volatility is elevated; the dominant impulse is bullish, but the thesis is fragile because it is headline-driven and can fade quickly if tensions ease.",
 "probability_pct": 70,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_disruption",
 "refining_constraints (outage headlines can whipsaw crude vs products)",
 "macro_demand uncertainty"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "If refinery outages are primarily demand-destructive (reduced crude runs), crude upside can soften even amid risk premium."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude-003",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Macro cross-currents (USD fluctuation focus) may cap follow-through and raise reversal risk if the dollar strengthens into the next session.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "flat",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "macro_demand",
 "USD sensitivity channel (pricing/financial conditions)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "If supply-risk headlines continue to accelerate, macro headwinds may be overwhelmed short-term."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-crude-001",
 "B-crude-002",
 "B-crude-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 60,
 "B": 2,
 "C": 3,
 "D": 40,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_est": 7,
 "fresh_6_24h_est": 6,
 "stale_over_24h_est": 0,
 "note": "Estimated from trend timestamp_found/newest evidence proxies; per-record deduplication not available in 6B input."
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "headline_driven_risk_premium",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Directional bias is supported by fresh geopolitical/shipping-route risk narratives that can reverse quickly on de-escalation."
 },
 {
 "flag": "refinery_outage_signal_ambiguity",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Refinery outages can be demand-destructive for crude while simultaneously increasing broader energy risk perception."
 },
 {
 "flag": "macro_usd_crosscurrent",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "low",
 "note": "USD-focused narratives present potential damping pressure; not enough fresh opposing mass to flip the thesis."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Geopolitical/shipping disruption headlines continue to cluster (fresh evidence persists) without credible de-escalation signals."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Two or more independent, fresh (<=2h) de-escalation / supply-restoration signals appear and contradiction ratio rises materially."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Any additional refinery/shipping incident updates hit within the next 6h window."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T10:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T15:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
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 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-13T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-13T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 63,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 82,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 63,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 63,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 3,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 9,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Per-record physics (velocity/acceleration/contradiction deltas) not provided to 6B; used trend temporal_profile + evidence_recency_proxy heuristics for momentum and timeseries shaping.",
 "Authority tier counts and freshness mix are non-deduplicated estimates because evidence IDs overlap heavily across trends in the provided 5B cache."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}