Snapshot

  • subject_area: Uranium futures
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker: uranium
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: low_authority_share_overhang (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-12T07:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-UR-001 Net policy/regulatory tailwinds and energy-security framing are currently biasing near-term uranium sentiment upward (supportive for uranium futures). 64 up stable 24h false 49
uranium B-UR-002 Near-term supply-side narrative (domestic production/mining development + contracting attention) remains supportive, but the incremental impulse is modest vs the broader policy-driven backdrop. 59 up fading 6h false 49

Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-uranium-20260412T070000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-12T07:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Uranium futures", "market_code": "uranium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 71, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 49, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "uranium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "uranium" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-UR-001", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Net policy/regulatory tailwinds and energy-security framing are currently biasing near-term uranium sentiment upward (supportive for uranium futures).", "probability_pct": 64, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "nuclear_policy", "energy_security", "reactor_demand" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-UR-002", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Near-term supply-side narrative (domestic production/mining development + contracting attention) remains supportive, but the incremental impulse is modest vs the broader policy-driven backdrop.", "probability_pct": 59, "direction": "up", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "uranium_supply_contracting", "geopolitical_supply_risk" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 67, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "uranium", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "low", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 77, "conviction_score_0_100": 71, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-UR-001", "B-UR-002" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 116, "B": 31, "C": 33, "D": 295, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h_count": 1, "fresh_6_24h_count": 4, "fresh_24_72h_count": 10, "stale_over_72h_count": 0 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "low_authority_share_overhang", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Directional mass is broad, but a large share of supporting items are lower-tier sources; treat conviction as more fragile if a contrary catalyst appears." }, { "flag": "narrative_to_price_translation_risk", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Signals are primarily policy/sector narrative; direct futures price confirmation is outside this workflow and may lag/decouple short-term." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "uranium", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish watch while fresh pro-nuclear policy / energy-security signals continue without credible opposing catalysts in the next 6\u201324h window." }, { "market": "uranium", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Escalate to reversal watch if fresh opposing evidence appears (>=2 independent records within 2h) that directly weakens nuclear build/extension, fuel-cycle access, or contracting narratives." }, { "market": "uranium", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Monitor for sudden policy/regulatory headlines (NRC/DOE/major jurisdictions) that can create fast sentiment swings despite a broadly bullish backdrop." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "uranium" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.03, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 41, "bullish_pressure_score": 53, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 41, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.03, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.03, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": 6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.03, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.03, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 51, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 43, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 43, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.03, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 46, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 46, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.03, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.03, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.03, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 51, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 43, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 43, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.03, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.03, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 51, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.03, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 47, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 47, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.03, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 46, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 46, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.03, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.03, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-11T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.03, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 51, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-11T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 43, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 43, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.03, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.03, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 51, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.03, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 51, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.03, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 46, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 46, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.03, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 47, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 47, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.03, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.03, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-12T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-12T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 52, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 52, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.03, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 52, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 12, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 4, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "balanced", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 0, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "No explicit contradictory/counter-direction records were provided in the admitted corpus for uranium; reversal sentinel not triggered.", "Prior market-state memory not provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' under unknown_prior fallback." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }